COLD SPRING SHOPS.

THE TROUBLE WITH BUBBLES. The unwinding of positions in the subprime-mortgage market prompts a refresher in market dynamics. A recent Mark Thoma post contemplates a bubble in the pizza business as a way of motivating the lending on houses.

1. Start at equilibrium with zero economic profit. As pizza demand goes up due to, say, the opening of a new university in the area, price rises leading to profits in the short-run (this is the points labeled sr in the diagram).

2. It is widely reported on local financial pages that the industry is booming. In response to these reports, and buttressed by their own analysis, firms enter. In fact, and there's nothing in theory that says this won't happen, it's possible that too many firms enter. That is, the demand for pizza goes up and twenty firms enter, but there's only room for fourteen to survive in the long-run. Extra firms, i.e. firms that won't survive in the long-run can also enter if the increase in prices is higher than justified by the underlying economic conditions (i.e. there is a bubble in the technical sense due to over exuberance or other reasons) and false signals are delivered to the market.

Already, there's the potential for an outcome other than excess capacity followed by a crash. A perfectly informed trader would know the minimum efficient scale of a pizzeria as well as the long-run supply elasticity of pizzerias, and that trader would be able to exploit the error others are making. A less than perfectly informed trader, or, for that matter, a loan officer at a bank, might remember enough about fitting u-shaped cost curves under the demand curve to look very carefully at business proposals for new pizzerias. The economics of exuberance is something a bit too challenging for introductory economics, although "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation" (International Economic Review 14, 2, June 1973: 328-350) will reward careful study. The pizza bubble is more likely to persist if people expect tomorrow's demand for pizza to exceed today's demand at the same price, ad infinitum. That's a rational expectations tulipmania, and there's a lot of very technical work on ruling out such behavior both in theory and in practice.

In the simplest model of perfect information, excess capacity won't happen. In a relatively simple model with learning, excess capacity will be transitory.

3. Makers of products such as pizza ovens, pizza boxes, and pizza trucks are getting the word out to all who will listen. They're building a new university and it's now open! There's a boom in the pizza industry! Get in now while profits are high, before it's too late. Pizza's never been better! After all, the suppliers stand to profit from every firm that enters and they have an incentive to encourage as many firms as they can to join in the boom. While not actually telling falsehoods, at least in most cases, they make the opportunities in the industry sound as rosy as possible to all who will listen, offer enticing good credit terms to entering firms, and so on.

If it sounds too good to be true, it is ...

The post goes on to note that subprime mortgages are subtly different.

My point is that the housing bubble is an enlarged, very exaggerated version of a process we see regularly when a market opportunities open up. In the case of housing markets, for example, financial innovation allowed a segment of the market to be served that had not been well served in the past, and it also allowed existing markets to expand creating highly profitable opportunities. The result was just what you would expect when there are profits to be made, a rush of resources into the industry. Real estate agents, loan companies, builders, etc. all entered, in fact too many entered and now we are seeing the clean out that is the equivalent of the failure of the six excess pizza firms (we shouldn't forget that this is the excess that is being cleaned out, at least in the example above, the industry itself has grown and now serves more people than before).

The problem might be as simple as no loan officer stopping to ask how many firms could fit under the new demand curve. It strikes me as a bit of a stretch to suggest, as Marginal Utility's Ken Houghton does, that efficient markets are definitionally suboptimal. Not quite. The simplest model of markets assumes away, a priori, the kind of mistakes that Professor Thoma invokes to create his pizza bubble. Those mistakes can be corrected if, under costly information conditions, some traders are sufficiently alert to the arbitrage opportunities the mistakes make possible. That same alertness renders the cattle-cycle model a commenter invokes inoperative.

We teach the cob-web function in one lecture in intro-economics and then forget it. But the cob-web does a better job of explaining the system than the mainstream theory that academics teach.

Not really. The cattle cycle might be a first approximation of price cycles under costly information. Then, however, traders are operating in a regime of randomly occurring surprises of unknown magnitude and duration. There are counters to changes of known magnitude or duration, summarized in the efficient market maxim, "if we know the price is going to go up tomorrow, it will go up today." In like manner, if you know that today's price is near the top end of the cattle cycle, you have incentives to exploit it today (or to go short for the future) in such a way as to damp, eliminate, or reverse the fluctuations. The underlying arguments haven't yet been distilled into a principles-friendly form.

DRINK LOCALLY. "G. Heileman Brewing, Milwaukee." (Yellow mustard and thin beer. The railroadin' is great in Illinois, but the cuisine needs work.)

Now comes news of a business locator service that enables consumers to find locally-owned sources of coffee, or books, or hamburgers, and cock a snook at the national chains. Maybe.

But to say local businesses possess some kind of moral magic simply by virtue of being family-owned and homey is preposterous. Such shops may be more ethically run in some ways, partially through close personal ties to the community and to fellow owners and employees. But this bespeaks the virtue of the management, not of the abstract institution of the local business itself (just as it indicates the poor character of the management of a corporate business, and not all of corporate business itself, when one falls into unethical dealings). Also, independent stores are often smaller, so they may provide fewer jobs to people in the community and supply fewer products to their customers. Neither of these are inherently good qualities for businesses to have.

LEARNING TO WIN. Young players, no matter the sport, may lack experience with protecting a winning position. Milwaukee Brewers who played in the 1982 World Series offered their observations a few weeks ago. Surviving members of the 1957 Milwaukee Braves have also weighed in.

Like the Brewers of this season, things didn't always go smoothly for the Braves that season. In June, the Braves, after a quick start, had dropped to fourth place in the eight-team National League. [Note: no divisional format. One pennant. No playoffs. Go to the World Series or go fishing.] On June 15, the Braves picked up [Red]Schoendienst, a veteran second baseman.

And the turnaround began.

"When he joined us as our second baseman, it absolutely changed our club," [Dell] Crandall said.

Crandall, the team's catcher, said he remembered Schoendienst would often run from his spot at second base to talk to the pitcher and then run back to his position. Curious, Crandall eventually asked [Lew] Burdette what Schoendienst was telling him.

"He says, 'Make 'em hit the ball to me,' " Burdette told Crandall.

"That was the kind of commitment that he brought to our ballclub," Crandall said.

On Sept. 23 of that year, [Henry] Aaron's homer in the 11th inning lifted the Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals and clinched the National League pennant.

With years of experience behind them, the old-timers also had words of advice for the Brewers. Aaron said the Brewers were a young club, and needed experience.

"They will be all right," he said. "They will do just fine. They may just be a year away."

Schoendienst, who still works for the Cardinals, said he was impressed by the Brewers this season. But Schoendienst, a veteran of 10 different World Series, said September was the hardest month of the season. There is a lot of pressure, and players are hurt or don't feel well, he said.

"They're not out of it," he said. "It will be a lot of fun until the last week."

All the same, the sheepshead games being played in the clubhouse better have a lot of leaster hands.

WHY THEY CALL IT PRACTICING MEDICINE. There's far more than a rage over a lost groschen in Beethoven's death.

Because hair grows at a measurable rate, it traces a time line. And because lead and other toxins migrate from the bloodstream to the hair and remain there, forensic researchers study hair for clues about sickness and sociopathic behavior. Beethoven suffered from depression, deafness, digestive troubles and other ailments, making him an ideal subject.

Charting the composer's final four months through the hairs, Reiter established day-by-day correlations between Beethoven's bedside medical treatments at the hands of Wawruch and lead concentrations in the composer's body: A dramatic spike in the concentrations follows each of the doctor's five treatments between Dec. 5, 1826 and Feb. 27, 1827, according to Reiter.

(Via Best of the Web)

ANOTHER SOURCE OF TRAFFIC. Laura Milligan at Currency Trading lists this service among 100 recommended sources of economics information. The list classifies those sources into several categories, by all means go browse.

ENJOY THE LONG WEEKEND. September 1 will be NIU Huskie Day in Chicago.

The football game that figures in the City Council's proclamation is sold out, although a poor substitute is available.

The hand of leaster that the National Central pennant race has become also continues in Chicago.

CHIEF RUNS-FROM-HUSKIES hoists Fulmer Cup.

DE KALB BAYOU. More flood photographs.

FOR YE HAVE THE HIPPIES WITH YOU ALWAYS. About the same time I picked up The Da Vinci Code and Cracking the Da Vinci Code, I purchased Secrets of the Code and finally finished it, which might tell you more than a lengthy Book Review N^o. 29. The subtitle is The Unauthorized Guide to the Mysteries Behind the Da Vinci Code. A more truthful subtitle might be The Empty Set. My post title summarizes one thread in the material editor Dan Burstein put together. The first collection of essays flies under the heading "The Drama of Herstory, History, and Heresy." The Gnostics play the part of the hippies, and, yes, there are several essays by trendy academicians trying to find justification for their contemporary experiments against reality in ancient texts, whether reliable or not. There are dissenting views as well, allowing a reader to weigh some of the conflicting arguments and draw a conclusion. A shorter collection, "The Da Vinci Code Revealed," is more useful for a reader curious about the veracity of the novel itself.

I did find one observation by Mr Burstein instructive. (Turn to page 428)

In attacking The Da Vinci Code and calling for Catholic bookstores to stop selling it, [Tarcisio Cardinal] Bertone [the Archbishop of Genoa] seemed to be suggesting a return to a time when church leaders believed they could win intellectual and philosophical debates by simply banning or suppressing certain ideas.

Why not? Dress it up as progressive intolerance and rename the Committee for the Defense of the Faith as the Diversity Office and you've perfectly described contemporary attitudes.

The design of a condiment bar is probably a nontrivial problem in ergonomics. When humanities types start thinking about condiment bars, the resulting discussion can be anything but brief. Whether it rises to the level of nontrivial is up to the reader as an exercise. Consider Stanley Fish contemplating ordering a coffee.

It used to be that when you wanted a cup of coffee you went into a nondescript place fitted out largely in linoleum, Formica and neon, sat down at a counter, and, in response to a brisk "What'll you have, dear?" said, "Coffee and a cheese Danish." Twenty seconds later, tops, they arrived, just as you were settling into the sports page.

On one hand, Mahler's Prodigal Son reports on the column as if it's another ETTS moment.

This op-ed piece from the NY Times [only available on subscription on line] shows how things aren't as simple and straight-forward as they used to be - even in just wanting and getting a cup of coffee.

[Superintendent's note: there are ways around the Grey Lady's "select" wall. Professionals study logistics.] That interpretation is not cast in doubt by what follows shortly.

It turns out to be hard. First you have to get in line, and you may have one or two people in front of you who are ordering a drink with more parts than an internal combustion engine, something about "double shot," "skinny," "breve," "grande," "au lait" and a lot of other words that never pass my lips. If you are patient and stay in line (no bathroom breaks), you get to put in your order, but then you have to find a place to stand while you wait for it. There is no such place. So you shift your body, first here and then there, trying not to get in the way of those you can't help get in the way of.
Finally, the coffee arrives.

It's possible that Mr Fish never had to purchase coffee at a beanery just before shift-changing time and perhaps the one harried counter lady could spare a second for a "Wuts yawz?" after a few minutes.

LOGE TRUMPS ZEUS. In the Entrance of the Gods into Valhalla, Loge offers an aside to the effect that he'd like to burn the lot out. That honor goes to Brunnhilde, after much incest and treachery, but perhaps Loge got his chance at Olympus instead. It's apparently a very serious fire.

According to the European Union, 454,447 acres of forest, orchards and scrubland were burned from Thursday through Sunday, raising Greece's fire toll for the year so far to 664,020 acres. The previous worst year was 2000, when 358,231 acres were blackened around Greece.

There have been fatalities, and Loge may have had some help from mere mortals.

The government's suggestions that the fires were the result of an organized plan of arson caused confusion and anger.

Public Order Minister Vyron Polydoras implied Sunday that a deliberate plan was in motion.

"We can say that this truly constitutes an asymmetric threat," he said without offering any specifics. He said the Secret Service and anti-terrorism squad had joined police in investigating the blazes.

[Prime Minister Costas] Karamanlis also implied arson was to blame, saying Saturday it could not be coincidence that so many fires broke out simultaneously in different areas.

The downside of extending the general welfare clause of the U.S. Constitution, or analogous principles, whether written down or not, to turn the national government into the crisis manager, no matter what the problem, is that any disaster, whether natural or abetted by criminals, can become an opportunity for political posturing. See, for instance, the New Orleans levees (which we've known about for years) or the Minneapolis bridge (where we've had warnings.) Thus far, the flooding in the State Line has not turned into a political issue. Much credit is due to first-responders, whether paid or volunteer, for helping out. Northern Illinois University officially recognized its Physical Plant staff for having everything ready for classes Monday.

RECOGNIZING THAT EXCESS DEMAND. Inside Higher Ed interviews Professor William C. Dowling, whose recent Confessions of a Spoilsport takes on the anti-intellectualism of College as Beer and Circus. Within the interview is an observation that is germane, whether one views intercollegiate athletics as inconsistent with the academic mission or as great entertainment. (Disclaimer: my loyalty to some of the non-revenue sports has been purchased by acts of kindness from assorted coaching staff.)

As for “imitating” the Ivy League, that’s the first accusation any Division I-A booster will throw at you when you suggest that a state university might be serving a worthier purpose. But think about it for a second. There was a time when all public institutions saw themselves as being in the same business as Harvard and Yale and the others — not as demanding intellectually, perhaps, and not quite as ambitious in their curricula, but basically as being devoted to shaping the minds of educated men and women who would then carry their values back into the larger society, providing a certain wisdom and perspective to those who hadn’t gone on to higher education.

Precisely. Whether one wishes to turf out the bowl hype and the bracket heads or not, "being in the same business" is not a bad objective, particularly in an environment where the U.S. News rankings and their competitors reflect excess demand for serious higher education, in which beer-and-circus is a possible source, but not the only source, of disaffection with the less-renowned universities.

Frequent rail transportation is more useful if there are worthwhile destinations not far from the station. As part of our Farewell to Summer, we'll see a few such destinations in the next week or so. Tonight, a look around Milwaukee. (There's a previous look around Tourist Milwaukee that's also an easy walk from the station. For comparison with some of the other Illinois corridors, many of the Lincoln sites are within walking distance of the Springfield station, the Carbondale service offers easy access to Southern Illinois University and the University of Illinois, but the Quincy service sets passengers down at a suburban station that is only slightly less remote than Tiverton Parkway.) On my most recent trip, I headed west. It was portrait day for the Marquette soccer team, just more evidence of what eight year old girls can aspire to.


Behind the team is the St. Joan of Arc Chapel, which the university describes as

to our knowledge, the only medieval structure in the entire Western Hemisphere dedicated to its original purpose: Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam.

That "medieval structure" requires a bit of qualification as, although much of the building is eleventh or twelfth century, there are pieces of solid Lannon stone in the current chapel. It does remain in use for Sunday services during the academic year. There may be older devotional buildings standing in Wisconsin, but their native builders have long since abandoned them. More about those sometime in the future.

In France, these Roman urns held oil and water for the chapel.


Some parts of the tapestries in the sanctuary are fourteenth-century, although they're reinforced with more recent fabrics. It probably hasn't helped some of these objects to be downwind from Falk and other heavy industry.


The chapel includes medieval artifacts from other European churches. This altar presents a Celtic allegory to the Trinity -- note the tri-monad and the recurring shamrocks.


The crypt cover for

Chevalier de Sautereau, a former Chatelain of Chasse, who was "Compagnon d'Armes" of Bayard (1473-1524), the famous French knight "Sans peur et sans reproche" (without fear and without reproach)

came with the chapel from Chasse. The knight's descendants requested that his remains remain in France.


The most famous artifact in the chapel is the Joan of Arc Stone, which came from some other church in France.


Marquette engineering students apparently investigate a phenomenon the chapel guide notes.

They tell of how Joan of Arc (1412-31) prayed before a statue of Our Lady standing on this stone and at the end of her petition kissed the stone which ever since has been colder than the stones surrounding it.

Is it? Go and judge for yourself.

At the east end of campus, the transept spire of Gesu Church echoes that of its younger older neighbor.


The area once known as Commission Row, and now as the Historic Third Ward, is about a half mile east of Marquette University. At one time, Broadway was lined with these produce brokers' warehouses, where fruits and vegetables were on display under the awnings, and the streets were full of trucks loading produce for distribution to mom-and-pop grocers and restaurants. Just-in-time refrigerated container load delivery is probably safer and cheaper but not so colorful. These last two warehouses await some sort of yuppification or perhaps the wrecker.


On Milwaukee Street, where the Route 14 trolleys used to run, the gentrification is well under way. I believe "Landmark Building" is the original name. This part of Milwaukee Street also used to cater to the brokers and jobbers. Just to the east was the pink church in the Italian style that, along with the North Western Depot and some of Commission Row, had to go for the never-finished lakefront expressway.


The retail function of Commission Row has been replaced by this Milwaukee Public Market, which is on St. Paul Avenue, just east of the river, and close to the station.


Inside, fresh produce, lots of cheese and sausage (this is Wisconsin) and some lunch counters. Not a bad place to pause for lunch.


Close by is the Milwaukee Ale House, which also serves food. The dining area has a view of the confluence of the Milwaukee and Menominee Rivers, as well as the east approach to the station. The Sheepshead Stout at the bar is pretty good. Give yourselves twenty minutes to get back to the station and on the train.

The renovation of Milwaukee's railroad station, soon to be the Greyhound station as well (what about the Badger Bus?) will be done in time for Thanksgiving. Two weeks ago, the project looked like this.


The news report looks forward to completion.

The $15.8 million remodeling project enlarges Amtrak's 1965 bunker-like station by 7,500 square feet, adds a three-story glass atrium and rejiggers space.

Funny how things change. In 1965, the new station, in a style the designer referred to as "Modern Renaissance," was anticipated as a replacement for the Everett Street station. The only lasting improvement was the provision of pedestrian underpasses to tracks 2,3,4, and 5. At the 1996 station, passengers had to cross live tracks to get to trains waiting on 2, 3, 4, and 5.

"For the million people who come though this station every year, this is a real opportunity to provide a welcoming experience - a brand new front door to the city," [Milwaukee redevelopment spokesman Joel] Brennan said.

The prospect of a sunny, spacious transit center has sparked interest from local food and beverage retailers, the city official said, and some contracts are in the works.

Although the station is still cut off from Grand Avenue by an expressway viaduct, there are some retail and entertainment destinations just east of the station, and the Walker's Point tavern district and a cluster of Mexican restaurants are just the other side of the Sixth Street viaduct.

If you know where to look, there is still evidence of the old station.


I'm standing in about the same spot where my dad took this picture in 1940.

THE QUEST FOR LEASTER GOES ON. St. Louis defeated Atlanta, ordinarily good news around here, while the Brewers gave up another lead in San Francisco, to be swept by yet another last-place team, while Slytherin was better than Hufflepuff. So despite falling to .500 the Crew still have a chance to regain the lead at Quidditch Field.

THAT TWO-CYCLE DRUMMING. News reaches Cold Spring Shops that Fairbanks-Morse Engine of Beloit may have another contract to repower ships for the navy. The news comes as a bit of a surprise, as Fairbanks-Morse have not exactly been a company I follow closely. The reference to diesel engines that can run efficiently at reduced power intrigues. At one time, Fairbanks attempted to put a submarine power plant on rails.



Note the large radiators aft, which one diesel authority suggested would be better suited to a submarine where there's a lot of ocean to use as heat sink. Fairbanks have been out of the diesel locomotive business for close to fifty years, although many of the engines were reconditioned for use in stationary power plants. The opposed-piston design makes for a somewhat taller carbody, and the master mechanic doesn't like having to disassemble the entire block to service the lower crankshaft. (The photo appears to be of diesels on the Pennsy scrap line at Hollidaysburg, where they could have had their prime movers pulled.) But an extremely powerful engine with efficiencies at low speeds ... might somebody at the railroads notice?

EVER HEAR OF MORAL HAZARD? The new semester is coming, and with it, Teachable Moments in Public Policy, here your tax dollars at work rebuilding houses on sandbars.

Hurricane Katrina was the latest storm to punish [Dauphin Island, Alabama, a] 14-mile-long island of 1,400 residents. Yet nearly two years after Katrina wiped out 350 homes and dislodged 1.5 miles of land, new and bigger homes are rising. A 9-foot-high sand dune was built with about $3.4 million in federal funds to prevent flooding. But it's already been breached by the Gulf of Mexico's waters.

When the waters don't rise, it's apparently a great place to live.

So why are people rebuilding on such a vulnerable island? The answer lies in a maze of emotions and financial incentives that encourage them to rebuild again and again. Residents point to government-subsidized flood insurance, repairs made to roads and other aid that arrives after storms. They also cite the island's serenity and its sugary white sand.

It's "paradise," says Carol Clark, owner of a bed-and-breakfast that's been damaged six times in 17 years. "The Gulf, all the fresh fish — it's the kind of place you never want to leave."

The article isn't well laid out, with the main debate appearing somewhere in the middle.

Some coastal analysts argue that vulnerable areas such as Dauphin Island shouldn't be rebuilt at all, at least not with help from taxpayers.

"Here's where the government can help people prevent themselves from shooting themselves in the foot," says Orrin Pilkey, director emeritus of Duke University's Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines. "I would give no support to any beachfront development in any form whatsoever. We should take away that insurance money, that nourishment money."

But Harry Simmons, president of the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association, which lobbies for beach-nourishment funds for coastal communities, says that view is shortsighted because a growing number of people are populating America's coastlines.

Also, "Beaches are the No. 1 tourist destination in the U.S., and if you don't do something to maintain this economic resource, that will hurt people all over the U.S.," not just in one area, says Simmons, the mayor of Caswell Beach, N.C.

Catch the conjuring trick in the defense of the subsidies? Short answer: does it come as any surprise that what the government subsidizes, it will get more of? Elaboration: does it come as any surprise that the recipients will not take too kindly to having it withdrawn?

Examine the labels for this post carefully, dear reader. Where are there islands and beaches with swimmable waters not subject to hurricanes?

SKY OF BLUE, SEA OF GREEN. The polar high moved in a bit earlier than the weather forecasters had expected, and there was very little additional rain Friday or early Saturday. By mid-day Saturday, the Kishwaukee River had receded behind the levees, although the water trapped outside the levees can only drain as fast as the river goes down. The bike path runs from the University toward First Street.


There are now footpaths into Kishwaukee Hall and the nearby apartments, although the hall, once home to the radio station and at one time a candidate for conversion to the coffee house, might be a writeoff.


Despite everything, Saturday's Corn Fest events went off as scheduled. American English performed many of the early Beatle tunes.


As I noted earlier, the younger set knows some of the words, for example "We all live in a yellow submarine," but the median age of people who sing along with "my independence seems to vanish in the haze" is somewhat higher.

RUNNING EXTRA: DeKalb County Online has a flood page including links to several videos local residents have provided.

University Diaries has a long post detailing assorted troubles with Florida A&M University's law school. Her conclusion:

The contemptible indifference that put a functional illiterate at the head of a law school's writing program is only one instance of a larger institutional indifference that takes money from struggling students and offers them in return cynicism and silence.

The articles she links to provide some context. First, some background, in the middle of St. Petersburg (Florida) Times coverage.

The state of affairs marks a dramatic reversal from the hopes expressed in 2000, when lawmakers voted to re-establish FAMU's law college.

Their decision was a politically charged attempt to right a past wrong against the state's only historically black public college, which lost its law school in 1968. Soon after, neighboring Florida State University opened its new college of law, heightening FAMU supporters' long-running fears about being shut down or folded into FSU.

After lawmakers voted to re-open the law school, then-Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan invoked the civil rights era: "It's a law school at least, it's a law school at last. Thank God Almighty, it's a law school at last."

Indeed, lawmakers hoped new law schools at FAMU and at primarily Hispanic Florida International University would produce more minority attorneys.

The problem, as is depressingly common with such efforts, is that nobody bothers to spell out precisely the trade-off between "diversity," using the usual ascriptive categories, and preparation. (There's also food for thought in that "folded into [Florida State]." Florida A&M is a legacy of Plessy-style "separate but equal": perhaps someone can explain to me why that legacy deserves to continue as an institution. By default, isn't the creation of an "African-American" law program at A&M and a "Hispanic" law program at International the essence of separate, and, as the story is unfolding, unequal?) The editors at the Times identify the consequences of failure to address the tradeoff.

Florida A&M University's College of Law is failing. When lawmakers re-established the school in 2000, they hoped it would help substantially increase the number of black lawyers in the state. They hoped it would be a place where nontraditional students would be nurtured and groomed to pass the bar examination.

Today, however, the school is in a crisis, and some powerful legislators are questioning whether the $40-million to build the Orlando campus has been a good investment after all.

Many students are failing their courses and the bar exam. Others are transferring because, among other reasons, the school is at risk of not being fully accredited by the American Bar Association, which would devalue the students' degrees.

The major causes of the crisis are well-documented: ineffective leadership, administrative incompetence, low morale among faculty, inadequate student counseling and questionable student recruitment.

Since its inception, the school has had one dean, who was fired for his role in a ghost-employee scandal, an interim dean, and a current nominee for dean who awaits board of trustees approval. This leadership vacuum has led to the resignations of several popular professors who will be hard to replace any time soon.

Yes, create a monument to access-assessment-remediation-retention and watch anybody who aspires to more get out. Put another way, don't be surprised if an obscure program dedicated to the latest academic fads attracts less competent faddists. (That's why Dilbert's Scott Adams never lacks for material.)

COMPARE AND CONTRAST. Via Charlie Sykes, a lament from Victor Davis Hanson.

Our present ambition to make every American youth college material -- in a way our forefathers would have thought ludicrous -- ensures that we will both fail in that utopian goal and lack enough literate Americans with critical vocational skills. ...

We should first scrap the popular therapeutic curriculum that in the scarce hours of the school day crams in sermons on race, class, gender, drugs, sex, self-esteem or environmentalism. These are well-intentioned efforts to make a kinder and gentler generation more sensitive to our nation's supposed past and present sins. But they only squeeze out far more important subjects.

The old approach to education saw things differently than we do. Education ("to lead out" or "to bring up") was not defined as being "sensitive" to, or "correct" on, particular issues. It was instead the rational ability to make sense of the chaotic present through the abstract wisdom of the past.

That doesn't appear to be the preference of at least one school administrator, who reacts badly to Mr Sykes's new 50 Rules Kids Won't Learn in School.

"It makes me angry," [Council Bluffs school superintendent Martha] Bruckner said. "We should not give people like (Sykes) credit. These rules are basically 50 one-liners that mostly put people down."

She said she cringed at rules like, "You are not a victim, so stop whining" and "You are not entitled ..." because they struck her as demeaning.

Others, such as "The real world won't care as much as your school does about your self-esteem," struck her as gratuitous slaps at students, as well as the teaching profession.

Bruckner replaced Jack Keegan July 1, and has been preparing for the new school year, which begins next Monday in the Council Bluffs school district. She said she wants to see graduation rates, student achievement and the expectation levels of the community rise.

We have much to look forward to. What happens, for instance, the first time higher expectations induce whining?

DESPITE THE RAIN. The rain-out date for the Illinois Railway Museum's rained-out "Day Out with Thomas" was not rained out, although the flooding and cleanup elsewhere in the State Line well may have limited attendance.

LOOKING PROFESSIONAL. To what extent is socialization into the ways of the upper-middle class part of the business curriculum? At Illinois State, some Recommended Practices in a small number of sales classes has turned into a college policy.

Administrators’ and faculty members’ arguments for the dress code are forceful. “They’re in a preprofessional environment; it’s not like a light switch gets flipped and you go from being students to a competent professional,” said Amy Humphreys, assistant to the college dean for constituent relations. “You can already just feel the difference [in attitude] between the kids who just come shuffling in with iPods and flip-flops, and then students who come in dressed for success.”

Not everyone agrees.

I know this whole issue may seem comical (and damn, it's funny to me), but it reflects the danger that universities are increasingly being turned into clones of corporate America, and the dress code is just one obvious step in that.

Those who do not remember ... "Clones of corporate America" is a reformulation for the early Oughts of "complicity in the military-industrial complex," which was still current in the early 1970s, before the Greek Revival, bringing with it both vocationalism and the party-school mentality, the correlation of forces which made the Illinois State policy possible.

The Illinois State rationale is instructive. It includes,

If your body is covered in piercings and your hair is spiked and dyed purple, business school may not be the place for you: “Do be aware that as you move into the corporate world, visible body piercing other than pierced ears and visible tattoos may not be considered appropriate by some of the firms you want to work for.”

No doubt the Perpetually Aggrieved will find Much to be Aggrieved By in this.

There's also food for thought here.

“Use common sense when wearing clothing that has words on it; people are easily offended or distracted by words,” the guidelines note, but it’s unclear how a student can wear a shirt that is both collared and bearing offensive language. However, “[c]lothing that has the Illinois State University logo is encouraged. Sports team, university, and fashion brand names on clothing are generally acceptable.”

Right. Break out that Packer polo during Bears Week. (Illinois State is not in Neutral Territory. Northern Illinois is close.) Watch what happens. Likewise, that Ford Quality Team shirt is going to go over real well at the General Motors golf outing.

WHY "JURY OF THEIR PEERS" MATTERS. Victim impact statements are for the sentencing phase.

Via Professor Bainbridge.

JUMPING SHIP? Near-record flooding in DeKalb, and (via University Diaries ) news of senior administrators shopping resumes.

Though Northern Illinois University has been around a lot longer than [Florida Gulf Coast University], [provost Ray] Alden has overseen several changes during his year as provost. The university recently reformed its general education structure to make it much more streamlined so students could get through it quicker, Alden said.

Senior administrators come, and senior administrators go, which makes it all the more important for faculty to hold the line on academic integrity and high standards of teaching and scholarship.

Florida Gulf Coast? Sounds like a railroad, possibly an extension of the Southern to get trains such as the Royal Palm and Seminole south of Jacksonville without using the rails of a competitor.

WHAT A LIGHTNING ROD DOES. Sears Tower Hit by Lightning Repeatedly.

AFTER I LOGGED OFF LAST NIGHT. The rains did come, and we got clobbered. The university declared a rain day and asked everyone to leave by 10 am. A rain day is more destructive than a snow day, as there's a lot more mess to clean up.

Not all of the southwest side River Heights golf course is on the heights. These water hazards are not part of the ground rules. The south side neighborhood off Taylor Street near the river suffered.


There's a bit of water across Castle Drive that's not shown on the campus map.


The new College Street bridge opened in time for move-in, but it had to be closed as the east approach is under water.


Kishwaukee Hall is waterlogged on all sides. I don't recall this much water in any of the previous floods.


We may have to replace the gym floors again.

West of the drainage ditch, that's not a reflecting pool. On good weather days, people will be studying here, or on occasion a class will meet on the steps, and after the middle schools dismiss, the skateboarders show up.


For a while, all the Kishwaukee River crossings in DeKalb were closed. The Lincoln Highway crossing, adjacent to the East Lagoon, is open, although the Lagoon has temporarily occupied the driving lanes. The police rearranged the lane shifts west of the work zone to allow traffic to use the crown lanes.


On the news, I heard that some SLOW NO WAKE buoys had been pressed into service somewhere in the Chicago area to reduce the erosion produced by bow waves stirred up by traffic. I have to wonder, however, whether the operators of Hummers, Escalades, and other DUKWannabes would pay any attention!

The Daily Chronicle has extensive photo coverage. Some neighborhoods were evacuated by boat.

RUNNING EXTRA. Very little rain overnight. River dropping. The Weather Channel sent a roving reporter to the fifth tee at River Heights.

THIS IS WHAT A MILWAUKEE WORLD SERIES LOOKS LIKE.

POWERING DOWN SHORTLY. Afternoon storms have made getting home an adventure for Metra riders.

METRA UNION PACIFIC NORTHWEST LINE TRAIN #651 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CRYSTAL LAKE AT 7:08P.M. IS CURRENTLY OPERATING APPROXIMATELY 100-105 MINUTES BEHIND SCHEDULE DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

METRA UNION PACIFIC WEST LINE TRAIN #61 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ELBURN AT 7:33P.M. IS CURRENTLY STOPPED NEAR GLEN ELLYN WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS FLOODING AREAS NEAR THE RAILS. DURATION OF THE DELAY IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION AS IT IS KNOWN.

UPDATED 8:03P.M.METRA UNION PACIFIC WEST LINE TRAIN #61 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ELBURN AT 7:33P.M. IS NOW ON THE MOVE AND WILL DROP PASSENGERS AT THE GLEN ELLYN STATION AND WILL EXPRESS TO ELBURN. TRAIN #63 SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ELBURN 8:06P.M. WILL PICK UP THOSE PASSENGERS FROM TRAIN #61 AT GLEN ELLYN AND WILL MAKE ALL SCHEDULED STOPS TO ELBURN. THIS TRAIN IS OPERATING 45-50 MINUTES BEHIND SCHEDULE.

METRA UNION PACIFIC TRAIN #66 SCHEDULED TO DEPART ELBURN AT 8:25 TO ARRIVE OGILVIE TRANSPORTATION CENTER AT 9:46P.M. IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED IN ITS DEPARTURE BY UP TO 15-20 MINUTES.

An afternoon tornado warning slowed move-in day at Northern Illinois, although from the looks of things on the west campus, almost everybody is in. There was no tornado, although I'm concerned about the river rising and blocking the open bridges in town. There are lightning flashes to my northwest and the thunder is getting louder ...

A RULE K REFRESHER.

Employes must expect the movement of trains, engines, cars or other movable equipment at any time, on any track, in either direction.

Pedestrians, too.

Metra trains between Chicago and Aurora were delayed for up to an hour Monday after train 43 on the Burlington Northern Santa Fe line struck and killed a man near the La Grange station at about 4:15 p.m., according to a story in the Chicago Tribune. The train had left Union Station at 3:58 p.m. There were some cancellations Monday, however, all trains were expected to be operating normally by Tuesday morning, said Patrick Waldron, a Metra spokesman.

The triple-track line was closed immediately after the incident, preventing trains from moving in either direction through the accident site, Waldron said. Two tracks were reopened by 5:30 p.m. and all tracks were in use by 7 p.m.

Some passengers may have been delayed for more than an hour, not for the first time on that line.

NO POPULAR DISCONTENT PERMITTED. The Chinese will tell you where to get off.

China is trying to stamp out protests over rail delays ahead of the Beijing Olympics in 2008, threatening passengers with legal action if they stay aboard their train once it has reached its destination, according to a report from the Reuters News Agency.

"Refusing to leave the train will be regarded as an illegal act endangering train safety," the China News said, citing a long list of unlawful measures proscribed by central authorities.

There have been several instances of Chinese passengers refusing to leave their trains after serious delays, demanding compensation and an apology from state-run railway operators.

According to the latest Railways Ministry order, passengers are prohibited from protesting or hindering the railway by crowding the aisles or refusing to leave the carriage.

"When there are train delays, passengers should take legal action to protect individual legal rights via normal channels," the semi-official news service said on its on-line Web site.

The Trains News Wire item does not note whether "legal action" includes the use of small pistols by the railway police.

POWERING DOWN SHORTLY. Nasty storms moving into the North West Frontier.

DON'T TANGLE WITH A TRAIN. It doesn't take too kindly to driving its lane.

Basketball always came easily to Eddie Griffin. It was life off the court that he had trouble handling.

The former Minnesota Timberwolves forward died last week when his sport-utility vehicle collided with a freight train in a fiery crash, the Harris County medical examiner's office said Tuesday.

Investigators used dental records to identify Griffin, 25, who began his pro career with the Houston Rockets in 2001. He was waived by the Timberwolves in March.

Mr Griffin was troubled as a player, and unfortunately some life lessons are final.

Griffin missed practices and a team flight, and the Rockets suspended him, then waived him in December 2003.

"Basketball was never an issue with him. He needed more life lessons, and unfortunately he was never able to reach his potential," former Timberwolves coach Dwane Casey said.

New Jersey signed Griffin in January 2004. The Nets tried to take steps to curtail his behavior, hiring a personal assistant to make living arrangements for him and instituting a curfew.

Less than two months later, the Nets waived Griffin after he left the team so he could check into the Betty Ford Center to get six weeks of treatment for alcohol abuse.

The accident report is not yet complete.

Don't mess with trains.

GET THE BRIDGETENDER'S CAT. Experts tie pigeon dung, bridge collapse.

Inspectors began documenting the buildup of pigeon dung on the span near downtown Minneapolis two decades ago. Experts say the corrosive guano deposited all over the span's framework helped the steel beams rust faster.

Although investigators have yet to identify the cause of the bridge's Aug. 1 collapse, which killed at least 13 people and injured about 100, the pigeon problem is one of many factors that dogged the structure.

The forensic engineers have not yet finished their work. Pigeons, however, are not liked by the highway commissioner.

The Colorado Department of Transportation spent so much time cleaning pigeon manure off bridges that it is embarking on a two-year research project looking for ways to keep pigeons away from its spans.

"It can be damaging to our structures because it's slightly acidic and it has other compounds in it that can dissolve especially things like concrete," said Patricia Martinek, the agency's environmental research manager.

No word on whether the highway commissioner will appoint a Falconer.

SELLING THE FAMILY SILVERWARE? An editorial in USA Today objects to revenue-strapped governments selling infrastructure.

Water utilities have been among the most controversial items up for sale, but other public services are also on the block as state and local governments hope to balance budgets by auctioning off public bridges, highways and airports. Last year, Indiana's toll road was sold to a foreign consortium for $3.8 billion in the largest highway privatization deal in U.S. history. Other public properties under consideration for sale: Chicago's Midway International Airport, the New Jersey Turnpike and the Pennsylvania Turnpike.

The premises the authors state in a preceding paragraph seem like an odd basis for challenging a privatization.

Falling bridges, collapsing levees, bursting pipes, sewage spills, failing electrical grids — this short list of major infrastructure failures in just the past few years might lead one to think that there's a conspiracy, that terrorists are taking down our public services and tax-built assets.

But it turns out that we are doing it to ourselves, first by underinvesting in our water, transportation and energy systems, and then by trying to solve the problem by auctioning off these assets in a fire sale to the highest private bidder.

There is a potential problem with such fire sales, if the highest bidder has too optimistic an expectation either of the future revenues from the property or of the expenditures required to put the property in shape, the premise being that governments are selling off deteriorated properties. (Chicago's Mayor Daley gets this point.) Such optimism might have figured in Stockton, California's recently reversed privatization of a water utility.

Citizen watchdog groups had also reported that the private company had adopted a "run-to-fail" approach to preventive maintenance. "Employees were feeling frustrated that they couldn't maintain the facilities the way they had previously," said Stockton City Council member Susan Eggman.

(That is, if one can speak with a straight face about any water works in the heavily-subsidized West being a private enterprise.) The substantive point might be nothing more than a very technical issue, the efficient level of maintenance. The private owner might have viewed the pre-existing maintenance activity as the equivalent of gold-plating. Alternatively, the owner might have been wasting the asset, raising the possibility that the privatization was not well done.

It's not clear, however, that public management of roads, airports, and waterworks has lived up to the authors' expectations.

Instead, what is required is a new commitment by citizens and government to rebuild our infrastructure so that our water and other essential services remain in the public domain to be managed for the benefit of all citizens, and not for the profit of a few.

The problem, dear reader, is that government has not managed public properties for the benefit of all citizens, which makes the privatizers' case a little easier. (Short form: the bidder claims to do no worse.)

There is, however, one deeper problem with these privatizations. The lease of the Indiana Toll Road, for example, appears to be a way for the state to meet some current expenses. Once there is no more silverware to sell ...

NO KIDDING. The Transportationist:

Apparently physics works in both communist and non-communist countries; but a free press only in non-communist ones.

The quote refers to a Chinese news blackout after a bridge collapse, but it could apply as well to rescue efforts in mines.

Neither a communist nor a non-communist country is sufficiently socialist. Herewith some commentary on the fatal mine collapse in Utah.

The grim spectacle that has unfolded in Utah is a testament to the inhumanity and irrationality a social and political system that subordinates all considerations to the enrichment of a small financial elite. Despite immense developments in science and technology—which are used to vastly increase the productivity of miners and the profit of coal mine owners—health and safety conditions for miners remain backward and primitive.

The same service, commenting on a flooded mine in China.

Rapid economic development in China has created a deep social divide, with an increasingly wealthy capitalist elite making its profits through the ruthless exploitation of the workforce. “Harmony” is only maintained through harsh discipline backed by the full force of the police and state apparatus.

Question: will the theorizing of Leon Trotsky or the unwillingness of consumers to buy defective Chinese goods be the better protection of miners?

HOW OTHERS SEE US. The editorial board at the Rocky Mountain News.

It is heartening in the sense that [Colorado] President Hank Brown recognizes that public confidence in higher education has waned and is contemplating [achievement testing for juniors] as a means of resurrecting that trust (and the funding that might go with it).
At the same time, it is an indictment of the preparation that too many students receive before they arrive on campus, as well as an admission that two years of university study do not necessarily correct these shortcomings.

Basic skills should be in place by the time students ever set foot on campus. Or, at the least, such weaknesses should have been ferreted out long before the junior year.

The Superintendent reminds regular readers, as well as the editorial board, that there will be constituencies at Colorado whose very livelihood depends on a continuing flow of unprepared students to keep their offices busy.

ONCE AN ENGINE AHEAD OF A TRAIN WAS AFRAID OF A FEW DROPS OF RAIN. Far from the hurricane zone, the State Line continues to receive rain, with the deluge likely to continue as the Atlantic hurricanes have a way of slowing the movement of weather systems further north. The Illinois Railway Museum closed today because of wet grounds, and this picture of a stud of diesels moved onto the main line suggests weather-related difficulties elsewhere on the grounds.


Sunday's "Day Out with Thomas" festivities were also rained out, no doubt to the disappointment of the thousands of toddlers and their parents that get their start in ferroequinology.

Friday, however, was a fine day for train excursions, and probably a bit less crowded.

SUMMER HOME FLOTSAM. A life ring stencilled Edmund Fitzgerald that washed up on the Keewenaw shore of Lake Superior is not original.

Cynthia Edwards, of Oakland County's West Bloomfield Township, says her father acquired the orange preserver more than 20 years ago and stenciled "Edmund Fitzgerald" on it.

The ring was kept at the family's cabin along Lake Superior and the Eagle River - not far from where it ultimately was found in the Upper Peninsula's Keweenaw Peninsula - until it was lost about two years ago.

Her father painted the ship's name on the ring as kind of a remembrance of the ship, Edwards told The Associated Press on Monday.

"It was never to trick anybody or make anybody think it was real," she said.

Edwards told a museum employee last week the truth behind the orange preserver.

At the time the ring surfaced, some people raised questions about the Edmund Fitzgerald Duluth stencils on the ring, which were legitimate as Fitzgerald was named for a Northwestern Mutual Insurance Company, of Milwaukee, senior executive, and her transom read

ANOTHER INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS. Insufficient soccer fields in the suburbs.

GETTING TO THE ROOT CAUSE. This site has maintained that one purpose of the common school is to socialize the young into the Habits of Highly Effective People. London Times commentator Harriet Sergeant suggests that schools are failing at that mission because some teachers are ashamed to be Highly Effective.

Then instead of authority and leadership, boys in state schools too often find themselves taught by teachers ashamed of their values. One young man teaching in a school in a deprived area in the northeast said his “main focus” was not to offend his pupils. “I don’t want to push my middle-class values on them,” he explained earnestly. When a pupil described his hopes for the future, stacking shelves in the local supermarket, “I pointed out the many positive aspects of the job — meeting people and so forth.” There was little attempt by the school, he admitted, to provide pastoral care or raise pupils’ expectations. He saw no link between this and his No 1 problem — pupil apathy.

It's possible that such "unwillingness" to appear to be an advocate is a behavior learned in teachers' college. (There might be other dynamics at work in Britain -- stacking grocery shelves is still a way of earning college money in the States.) Here's an observation from Janet at SCSU Scholars.

Too many of the so-called teacher colleges began emphasizing self-esteem, the whole person, etc. over content in the 1970's. These institutions were extremely influential. When these "can do no wrong" ideas began, the college population came from homes where books, magazines and papers are readily available. Most came from English speaking homes with trditional work ethics and those who did not understood an earned degree (vs one given to students) would open doors regardless of background. Unless spoiled, these students would succeed. Once the feeling mentality overtook the learning mentality, problems started. Though today's college population is more varied the skills to succeed are the same. Unfortunately too many students are not taught necessary academic or social skills and too many parents overprotect their kids while demanding too little respect for themselves and teachers. The result is: a less educated populace; entry level workers who do not understand that showing up on time and doing what needs to be done are necessary for success; businesses and agencies that hire workers discover these new comers often cannot think, cannot make decisions, and call home when the going gets uncomfortable (note, I did not say the 'going gets tough').

Her conclusion:

We have spent far too many years in the bubble of "I'm ok, you're ok." We are ok but we still need to learn. By default, American attracts the best, brightest and most energetic. We are lying to ourselves if we continue to adapt a system that handicaps everyone, native and foreign born.

True enough. But the Times and the Scholars are likely preaching to the converted. What mugging by reality does the rest of the school establishment require?

UPPER VOLTA, WITH ROCKETS. That was a Mikhail Gorbachev witticism about the Soviet Union, and it turned out to be correct in part. That might also be a characterization of the University of Florida, where private donations have made possible better facilities for a sports program that has won titles in football and men's basketball (but still nothing in hockey) at the same time that the academic programs appear to be enrollment-impacted.

The athletic association has already raised $20-million toward the projected $28-million bill for cosmetic changes and renovations of the Griffin stadium complex, including the building of a Gator Hall of Fame, office renovations for coaches, improved weight lifting facilities, etc.

At the same time, it may as well be 1929 for the academic programs. Because of budget shortfalls, president Bernie Machen has instituted hiring and salary freezes at the university. As a result of the crunch, classes are packed and fewer courses are offered. This is especially troubling since because of the sun and sports and the free tuition of Bright Futures scholarships, the university attracts students with real intellectual muscle. The average Gator freshman had a 3.99 GPA in high school. And the average SAT scores were above 1,300.

The article is courtesy of University Diaries, where the Scathing Online Schoolmarm apparently only edits articles that raise contrary points of view. The article itself is full of mixed metaphors ... first the author describes Florida as "like a Third World country with the sports in clover and their academic programs in the weeds" (Upper Volta with rockets works better) and then invokes 1929 (the Depression didn't start to bite until 1931 in any event, and again, one might do better comparing Gator athletics with the Strategic Rocket Forces, and the academic departments with People's Washing Machine Works N^o. Four) and it goes on in a similarly distracting vein. Textual heckling aside, it does raise some observations about revealed preferences that strike close to home, including the provision of new recruiting facilities for the coaches while classroom maintenance is deferred, supplies are not purchased, and department travel and entertainment budgets (we do recruit, and part of the professional development of young scholars is the presentation of their research at conferences or at neighboring institutions.)

A GUIDE TO INDUSTRIAL ARCHAEOLOGY. The Bessemer-Kelly method of making steel by blowing air at high velocity through molten iron first went into use on a large scale at Workington on the Cumbrian coast of England. Workington: Iron and Steel, a National Trust effort by Richard L.M. Byers and now out of print, is a brief history of the several iron and steel plants that became the Workington plant of British Steel.



This Book Review N^o. 28 recommends the book, should one be able to find it, as useful for doing industrial archaeology around Workington (some steel-mill clues are available in these photos) or as a guide to steel plant practice in the days before ladle metallurgy and continuous casting. Right up to closing in the mid-1970s, the hot end of British Steel's Workington plant was a Bessemer shop. Mixers, converters, and teeming alleys were set up in such a way as to permit several converters to feed one casting line.

TRADE IS MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL. So A Year Without "Made in China" author Sara Bongiorni discovers.

"It was really all-consuming," said Bongiorni who documented her family's experiences in her recently published book, "A Year Without 'Made in China': One Family's True Life Adventure in the Global Economy."

"You realize the inconvenience factor was tremendous. We totally take advantage of these things from China," she said.

Yes, and the Chinese totally take advantage of our willingness to spend money. It's as human as opposable thumbs.

Now, two years after her experiment, Bongiorni still reads labels and makes conscious choices to spread her dollars in a global economy. But that also includes China.

"I absolutely could not do it permanently," she said. "You'd have to be able to give up a telephone and a cell phone, computers."

There's really a feeling of vulnerability because as a consumer, all you have is the label. And it is an overreaction to say I'm not going to buy anything in China and cause this huge inconvenience. People are stuck."

Yes, I'm so stuck buying my pepper sauce from Louisiana because we have sugar bushes, rather than bayous, nearby, and I'm so stuck buying my lumber from Oregon because we have options traders in office towers, rather than timberlands, nearby.