22.12.22

MARKING OFF.

We won't be dreaming of a white Christmas at Cold Spring Shops this year.


The September Old Farmers Almanac forecast for chilly conditions might be accurate in part, as there is talk of blowing and drifting snow, and venturing away from town at your own risk.  On the other hand, the early forecast for just after Christmas promises a thaw.

It has long been my custom to post a Festive Season video, featuring vintage, or sometimes modern-retro, tinplate trains under the tree and a look at progress on the model railroad.  This year, with a lot of heavy construction under way, I decided to show off both the traditional display and the models as works in progress.  Enjoy.



The Christmas display is nowhere near as fancy as Frank Sinatra's or Charlie Bowdish's, although the modelling techniques are the same whether you're doing a permanent seasonal display, or a to-scale model railroad.
[Carnegie Science Center curator Nikki] Wilhelm picks up a red covered bridge from a shelf and turns it upside down. “I’ll show you something cool that Charlie Bowdish built. You see this bridge? Well, it was made from a Milk-Bone box,” she said, pointing to the label from the dog bone company inside the bridge.

“You really just have to let your imagination run wild because you wouldn’t believe the things you can use to make something: the row houses that we have from the Liverpool streets in Manchester, the intricate detail work on the porches — that’s just made from angel hair pasta,” she explained. “The trees are made from dried wild, hydrangea flowers.”
Yes, and at Cold Spring Shops, Starbucks coffee stirrers get repurposed as Soviet buildings. Stay tuned.
The popularity of model railroading has stood the test of time in part because hobbyists each bring a different skill set to the craft, which in turn helps develop others: Artisans love building the model scenery; history buffs enjoy researching and recreating places long gone; engineering types enjoy designing the tracks; and techies love the technological advances in electronics, wiring and the ability to run your train from an app on your smart phone.
Indeed.  Those might be century-old Lionel electrics controlled by a transformer (there's still a tap-changer transformer that works) but the scale trains are radio controlled.

It's all for good health, too.
When Bowdish was asked, in one of his final interviews before passing in 1988, why he continued the exacting, painstaking work year after year, he said: “Everyone regardless of their status in life, reaches out towards life’s ultimate achievement — happiness … privileges, money and possessions are useless unless they make a man happy. To those who have been bored and sickened by the monotony of work in offices, sales, fields and factories, where the only evidence of a day’s work is a headache, nothing to exhibit to friends, nothing to view with pride as an example of skill or handiwork — to those people I say ‘You should have a hobby.’”
Indeed so, and some of the time away from social media will be time working on the railroad.

Thank you for looking in.  If all goes well, posting will resume on or near Three Kings.

IT'S CALLED THE BENEFIT PRINCIPLE, AND MARKET TESTS ARE USEFUL.

A contributor to the house organ for business as usual in higher education inadvertently steps on his own argument.  Higher Ed Is a Public Good. Let’s Fund It Like OneSeriously?
Bad economics. A public good has two properties, nonexclusive use and nonrivalrous consumption. [Former Northern Illinois president John] Peters's own arguments will contradict both of those properties. A more accurate argument might be that there are unpriced spillover benefits, or non-pecuniary externalities, to a university degree. That's for another day: are the marginal social benefits of a state-aided university worth the costs, or has Robert Fulghum (details or compare prices) correctly identified the sole source of a positive benefit-cost ratio?
That's not where James N. H. Spencer goes wrong, in fact he goes even further astray.
If we are serious in arguing that higher education is a public good, then we should finance it like one; we should take some lessons from my own field, infrastructure planning.

Financing an equitable higher education can be done: The U.S. has near-universal water supplies, transportation, and electricity for even its poorest residents. What would happen if we applied the same principles to the public goods that universities provide?

Public infrastructure is rarely funded fully by upfront subsidies in the way that advocates for “free college” suggest. Instead, infrastructure projects rely on floating debt that is tied to long-term user fees through the life of the infrastructure. Think of your water bill, which over 30 years helps pay down the debt associated with building your local water system. According to the National Association of Counties, government investments in transportation infrastructure, for example, total substantially less than half of the actual costs, with bond-market investors covering the bulk of the upfront costs. Over time, individual users collectively pay back that debt through costs like gas taxes, transit fares, or tolls. Whatever the repayment mechanism, end users never take on that personal debt the way we now expect college students to do.
So many things wrong there. I can only envision the caterwauling from the "water is a fundamental right" crowd in higher education, for whom the very notion of water as a commodity causes anguish.  I mean, didn't Milwaukee's sewer socialists install water meters and sell the dried activated sewage sludge as fertilizer?  There's no reason a water utility can't be a private company; indeed, doesn't the popularity of bottled spring water of various types suggest the public water works deals in hot and cold running crud?  There's no reason an electric utility can't be a private company, and it's only environmental extremists that impede the upgrading and repair of the transmission lines, and New Deal brains trusters that preclude power companies owning electric railways.

VEHICULAR CARNAGE IN THE OLD NEIGHBORHOOD.

We've called attention to the dangerous public infrastructure in the far northwestern parts of Milwaukee for some time.

Another year has passed, and conditions have gotten no better.  Reporter Ben Jordan struggles with his terminology.  "Two streets on Milwaukee’s north side claim more lives than any other road in Milwaukee County."  He can't figure out whether Capitol Drive or Fond du Lac Avenue are streets are roads: they're not necessarily stroads, which suggests a heavily retail environment with lots of commercial traffic.  That might be accurate where they cross, in the Capitol Court neighborhood, although years ago there were stretches of Capitol that had pretensions of being a residential avenue, or perhaps a boulevard.  I really should finish a post that's been on my mind for almost two years about how Milwaukee traffic engineers, sixty years ago, recognized that they had a stroad problem but didn't come up with a good workaround.

IN PRAISE OF GRIDLOCK?

I'm a big fan of separation of powers, in part because I'm not persuaded elections, no matter what rules determine the winners, are useful for revelation of preferences, particularly among large policy bundles being voted on by large electorates.

In the most recent Wisconsin gubernatorial election, losing Republican candidate Tim Michels said something about his party never losing an election again, should he get a veto-proof majority in both chambers of the state legislature.  That might have been spin about how his party's manifesto would deliver so much good stuff that only fools would vote for Democrats in Wisconsin, although since he aligned himself too closely with Donald Trump's allegations of election fraud in the state, there might have been people who saw his claim as a Kinsley gaffe promising a future loss of voting rights.

18.12.22

IV. ADVENT

Sixty years ago, we learned that North Shore Line passengers were making their last Christmas Home rides on that conveyance.


The interurban experience is still available at a few preservation railways, although the Santa trains are wrapping up their season this weekend.  Christmas is about redemption for a fallen world, and there are always symbols of what we've lost, aren't there?

THE WONDERFUL LIFE WE SQUANDERED.

It's Christmas, which means the culture studies types will be about their usual displays of cranky erudition.  That includes the movies.  The past two years we've examined the fun side of White Christmas.

This year, we'll feature It's a Wonderful Life, which a different class of culture studies types has gone after.  Ten years ago Notre Dame's Patrick Deneen wondered if the movie didn't anticipate a Suburban Experiment that would go wrong.
George [Bailey played by James Stewart] represents the vision of post-war America: the ambition to alter the landscape so as to accommodate modern life, to uproot nature and replace it with monuments of human accomplishment, to re-engineer life for mobility and swiftness, one unencumbered by permanence, one no longer limited to a moderate and comprehensible human scale.

George’s great dreams are thwarted by innumerable circumstances of fate and accident and he remains in Bedford Falls. Most of the film portrays a re-telling of various episodes of George’s life for the benefit of a guardian angel—Clarence Oddbody (Henry Travers)—who is sent down to earth to attempt to save George during his greatest test.

While George’s grandiose designs are thwarted, he does not cease to be ambitious, and does not abandon the dream of transforming America, even if his field of dreams is narrowed.
I think that's a variation on the Tragic Vision, you bloom where you're planted.

HOCUS POCUS DOMINOCUS.

We've suggested previously that bit of doggerel originated as mockery of church ritual reduced to going through the motions.  It should come as no surprise, dear reader, that the ritual language of cultural institutions captured by the wokerati takes on a ritualistic form.  "Mastering the vocabulary is a way of signaling entry into a select world of the knowing and the just. The system is closed—there’s an internal logic that can be accepted or rejected but isn’t open to argument or question."

So mote it be with Harvard's announcement of its newest president, current liberal arts dean Claudine Gay, which Francis "Manhattan Contrarian" Menton (via Power Line) read so you don't have to.
Claudine is a remarkable leader who is profoundly devoted to sustaining and enhancing Harvard’s academic excellence, to championing both the value and the values of higher education and research, to expanding opportunity, and to strengthening Harvard as a fount of ideas and a force for good in the world. . . . As her many admirers know, Claudine consults widely; she listens attentively; she thinks rigorously and imaginatively; she invites collaboration and resists complacency; and she acts with conviction and purpose. . . . Claudine’s own scholarship and teaching have focused on aspects of democracy—political participation, voting behavior, public opinion, and the interplay of race, ethnicity, and politics in America.
Yup, all the predictable incantations.  What is it about so-called progressive intellectuals and their use of  "profoundly"?  The rest of it might be lifted from the prospectus of any startup: sustaining, enhancing, expanding, strengtheningQui tollis peccata Monday morning. 🔔🔔🔔

16.12.22

WATCH THIS SPACE.

The point of commissioning a house with a train room under the garage is to have a train room that extends under the garage.


Look closely: curve templates, turnout templates, and a yardstick to establish tangent lines as the spline takes shape.  The last thing I want at what will be a critical junction on the layout, with some industries back by the paint booth, the Eastern Route Main Line diving into staging, and the Gloucester Branch on its way to Manchester-by-the-Sea and beyond is to have some kinky track or tight turns as a consequence of wishful thinking.

FRIDAY short TAKES.

These will be the final Friday short Takes for this year.


The weekly roundup of pithy elaborations of traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

THERE THEY GO AGAIN.

Somewhere in all the vote-buying Washington politicians engage in, there are plans, and perhaps printed money, for an expansion of Amtrak's regional corridors, including service from Chicago to Rockford and perhaps Dubuque, and the extension of Hiawatha service to Madison, along with some sort of continuation to the Twin Cities, perhaps including connecting regional service approximating the former Victory and Viking onward to the Cities by way of Eau Claire and across the St. Croix at Hudson.

13.12.22

SEE THE RENT-SEEKING INHERENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTALISM.

Naomi Klein did.
"Civil society should announce a boycott + instead hold a true people's summit," Klein wrote. "One gathering per continent to limit flying. Links to the official summit by video."

"There can be lobbying sessions built into the COP28 program with governments who will obviously go to the UAE," she continued. "But why should civil society expend the carbon, money, and time to join them just to declare it a failure all over again? Let's try something new."

Klein's call for a new oppositional approach to the annual United Nations climate summit came in the wake of a gathering at which civil society was harassed, surveilled, and sidelined by Egypt's authoritarian government as lobbyists from Exxon, Chevron, and other fossil fuel giants responsible for record-high greenhouse gas emissions swarmed the summit, fighting off efforts to include a fossil fuel phase-out in the summit's final text.
The libertarian-populist component of civil society likely agrees that there's something off about these globalist poobahs jetting off to some gathering of the well-connected, particularly to a climate summit in a desert country that would be uninhabitable but for air conditioning.  That component would likely also see those efforts to phase out fossil fuels without development of nuclear electricity and pumped storage and a few other things as deprivation with a helping of conservation.
"It remains imperative to get off coal, oil, and gas as rapidly as possible. Every tonne of CO2 that remains in the ground means less harm to lives and livelihoods," [Guardian environment editor Damian] Carrington added. "Can the U.N. climate talks deliver this at speed? It does not look that way. It is too easy for the fossil fuel states to hold the consensus-based negotiations to ransom, threatening to blow up the whole thing if their black gold is so much as mentioned by name. There were more fossil fuel lobbyists at Cop27 than delegates from the Pacific islands, which their industry is pushing below the waves."
That's the nature of rent seeking.  There aren't, alas, enough hotels and taxiways at those Pacific islands, idyllic though they might be for a climate summit, for the globalist poobahs to park their planes.

ACADEMIC ADMINISTRATORS DEVOID OF VALUES.

Last March, we called attention to faculty objections to proposed mission and vision statements at the Boston campus of the University of Massachusetts.  Generally there's a values statement as well: the mission statement is a sentence that states an objective; the vision statement a paragraph or two, outlining the actions being taken to achieve that objective; and the values are a few Desirable Things that further structure the vision being pursued.  It's an opportunity for lots of posturing and peacocking.
In common with the corporate counterparts of these things (strategic planning being, like total quality management or disruption or management by objectives) just the latest way to give the impression of being au courant while wasting time on faddish things, rather than, oh, teaching students, it's a word salad ticking all the proper boxes whilst signifying total surrender of the curriculum to the critical theory types.
What the strategic planning types came up with at Massachusetts-Boston was a load of nonsense in the spring, and if the administration had hoped to impose it during the summer when the faculty might have been working on research, well, that failed.  The mission and vision statement that Steven Hayward flagged at Power Line, as well as the faculty response to it, are as they were last spring.  Apparently in that opening item of the vision statement, diversity and inclusion trump shared governance, and the faculty in the rigorous disciplines are woke to the lie that "expansive notions of excellence" is anything other than declaring idiocy a form of intellect.

Some comments at Power Line note that the story is nine months old.  Have the science and math faculty stopped the adoption of the new mission and vision, or did that become policy, those objections notwithstanding?

12.12.22

RIGHT CONCEPT, WRONG HUB.

Matthew Yglesias, who has noted a number of things gone wrong with Amtrak in the Official Region, recently took issue with Amtrak's latest crack at establishing a network of emerging corridors.
Amtrak released their new vision for passenger rail expansion in the United States, and I don’t really know what to say except that it sucks. They’re proposing incremental expansion of a national network of slow, infrequent trains that I guess will serve the needs of weirdos and hobbyists who want to ride a train from Birmingham to Shreveport or from Athens to Fort Wayne via Columbus but serves no particular transportation purpose.
He'd rather, I reckon, put the money into the Northeast Corridor, which makes sense as that's his back yard.
I really think Amtrak should be doing basically the reverse. They should draw no new lines on the map, but instead invest meaningful money in building true high-speed rail infrastructure along one of the best high-speed rail corridors on God’s green earth, connecting Washington, D.C. to New York and Boston via Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Haven, and Providence.
I wonder what transportation historians, a century from now, assuming we last that long, will say about a bankrupt New Haven Railroad assiduously acquiring parcels of land at Depression values in order to straighten out their line north of New Haven, only for a subsequent management selling those parcels to the Connecticut Turnpike in order to delay another bankruptcy.
Sixty years ago, the Wise Experts were of the view that upgrading highways was the winning choice for infrastructure spending.  And thus when a cash-strapped New Haven Railroad sold parcels of land it had painstakingly purchased to straighten out the Shore Line to the Connecticut Turnpike Authority, everyone hailed it as in the public interest.
Never mind that. Let's focus om Mr Yglesias in the present.
I was looking into some potential future travel in France, a country that’s put a lot of money and engineering resources into high-speed rail as a national project, and I was struck by how bad the underlying population geography is. One problem is that outside of Paris, none of France’s cities are really all that large. But also, France is sort of a pentagon with Paris in the center, whereas the whole deal with trains is that they work best in straight lines. If Paris, Rennes, and Bordeaux were all in the same direction that might be a great train route, but as things stand it’s all pretty marginal.
There are a couple of possible extensions of his thinking.  One is to consider, as he does, extending the Northeast Corridor south to Richmond, and perhaps on to the Research Triangle and Atlanta.  As long as you're considering all new trackage, heading north to Portland goes along with his "in the same direction" thinking, and there's potential for another line using the empty right of way of the old Water Level Route onward to Buffalo and possibly Toronto.

GOVERNOR PRITZKER TRAILS BY 19,204.

From the beginning of this series, a year and a half ago, we noted, "The geographic area and population of Illinois are both similar to those in Sweden, and there are similarities of the Chicago and Stockholm metropolitan areas.  But  Springfield politicians are hazardous to your health."

The verdict is in.  "Sweden Wins! Country That Refused Lockdown and Kept Schools Open Has Lowest Pandemic Mortality in the World."  Not only that, the Swedes did better on excess deaths from causes other than coronavirus.  That despite Worldometers reporting more infections but fewer attributable deaths in Illinois.

The emergency decrees for the United States taken together, as well as Illinois, remain in effect, if in modified form.  The emergency is over.  The emergency powers should be rescinded.

These posts will continue until the emergency decrees end.  This is what a majority of Illinoisans voted for.  I retain the right to call attention to what they've inflicted on themselves, and it's going to be fun come January, when two years of inflation adjustments to the motor fuel tax kick in, and later in the year, when the sales tax moratorium on groceries expires.  In addition, the winter fearmongering about coronavirus, flu, and other respiratory ailments is under way again, and I'm seeing more people masking up in stores or riding alone in their automobiles.  Meanwhile, letter carriers in Chicago are being hunted for their master keys to cluster mailboxes in apartment complexes and office parks that don't have individual curbside or in-house delivery.

A service called Worldometers has been keeping track of coronavirus infections and deaths, disaggregated in a number of ways.  With local, state, and federal governments in the United States changing the way they count infections (and they might be rethinking how they classify deaths) I'm not sure how valid any numbers, even from a service consistently used from month to month, is.

The latest report from Sweden counts 2,640,369 infections, up by 21,681 from last month, and 21,681 deaths, a change of 377 from the preceding report.

The latest report from Illinois counts 3,906,801 infections, an increase of 72,376 over last month and 40,406 deaths, adding 277 to the Pritzker Body Count in one month.  End the emergency decrees.

As of this afternoon, the state appears to have revised their tally of vaccinations.  The most recent tally of vaccinations gives around 26 thirty million doses of the various vaccines, initial course or the various boosters, or perhaps reformulations, administered as of today, December 12.  Last month that estimate was around thirty million doses of all types.  The state also appears to have ended their count of the scary variants, although the page has been updated since last month's tally, and the discussion of the various Omicron variants circulating also includes mention of the latest reformulated corona shot.

As Oktoberfest season began, the governor trailed by 19,467.
At the start of the academic year, the governor trailed by 19,611.
At St. Patrick's Day, the governor trailed by 19,580.
At Valentine's Day, the governor trailed by 19,533.
At the National Day of Service, the governor trailed by 17,062.

Note the time series: a margin of terror that used to be growing by hundreds in a week was growing by  less, that is, until the ukases went back into effect.  The details for earlier in 2021 and the end of 2020 are on page 2.

BY THEIR OWN STANDARDS, THEY'RE FAILING?

What, dear reader, is the proper value proposition for the university?  It used to be that the academy was a place where people could play with ideas, maybe one in twenty of which might work when taken from the common room or chalk board to real life.  But even in my youth, I recall the public service commercials on the three television stations we had, and the car cards on the buses exhorting people to get that good education.  Was vocationalism thus the default value proposition?
It probably came to this when higher education sold itself with the slogan, "to get a good job, get a good education" back in those Prosperous Early Sixties.  Likewise, it probably came to this when the competition for prestige included the competition for grants, whether federally funded, or by politically-motivated foundations, or by Big Pharma and the corporate interests Ms Scott invokes.
Then came the return of the Holy Inquisition, or perhaps the understandable tendency for people to stop looking when they reach a conclusion that makes them comfortable with their priors. "It's probably a little late in the game to start defending 'care and precision' in academic writing, given the past thirty years of increasingly tight priors and epistemic closure."  That was a reaction to a culture-studies type attempting to introduce yet another euphemism.  It doesn't matter that the word to be banished was "pedophile".  There's a lengthy list of these, and it's easy enough to pronounce any of them the way Mark Anthony rendered "honorable" in that funeral oration.

Here, now, in leave of Brutus and the rest, let us consider Caesar's will.  Oh, sorry, it's a new policy study from the Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty.
We make the case that public universities must serve as good stewards of taxpayer money, and those that are putting students on career paths where they’re unlikely to be able to pay their student loans ought to be held accountable. Moreover, universities should aid in solving the growing workforce crisis by steering students towards careers where there are shortages in the state. Using extensive data on college defaults and the return-on-investment from various degrees, we highlight the schools and programs that are a net positive for would-be college students, and those that are not.
That report focuses on Wisconsin, and it includes a few private colleges and universities.  Make of it what you will that cosmetology degrees are among the biggest net losers for students, with dance also being a poor financial risk; and that Lawrence University, a wanna-be high end private liberal arts college in Appleton, offers almost no majors with a positive return on investment.  It engages in the usual sort of fretting about graduates of Wisconsin seeking employment elsewhere.  That sort of mercantilist illiteracy has spawned periodic attempts to indenture students.  I repeat, because repeat I must.  "Midwestern politicians cannot get their brains around the idea that graduates of Big Ten universities competing in the global economy by relocating elsewhere on the globe attest to the strength of those universities."  Yes, that includes those performing arts degrees.  High risk but high returns for the successful.  Just like football.

The caviling over reports like Wisconsin Institute's is likely to go on until the fall of the house of Harvard.  "Markets exist to value risks, and there is likely a balance of luck and merit in a market outcome. Efficiency, on the other hand, depends on agents having the incentives to do efficient things. In the academy, nobody has spelled out what those efficient things are."

11.12.22

III. ADVENT.

It's still too early to be dreaming of that white Christmas.  It's not too early to be on your best behavior, as Santa's helpers are riding the rails.


That's the East Troy Railroad's re-enactment of the Schuster's Christmas Parade Train.  There are other Festive Season themed trains on the preservation railroads, and the freight carriers might still be assisting local charities.  Play nice.

THE ABSENCE OF BOURGEOIS NORMS COMES FOR WAL-MART.

We've noted, in passing, the reliance of what used to be self-service retailers on locked cabinets for some of their offerings, such as baby formula locked up with the expensive liquor at the nearby grocery, or shaving supplies at the drug store, and called attention to the way Target is reducing hours and might be moving away from self-service in response to the shoplifting.  "Self-service shopping only works as long as the shoppers respect their side of the bargain, which is to settle up."  Now it's Wal-Mart's turn.  "Rising thefts at Walmart could lead to price jumps, store closures, CEO says."

One has to have a heart of stone.  The big box retailers gave up on Chicago some time ago.
It didn't help any that Chicago's rookie mayor, Lori Lightfoot, decided that denouncing "vigilantes" was more important than, oh, securing the oases in what would become a food desert.

Two years ago, Target took some stick for pulling stores out of Chicago's south side neighborhoods.  Those were underperforming, according to business metrics, but not under attack by looters.  Today, though, the rookie mayor is not in a good place.  Here's a headline.  "Mayor Lightfoot Pleads With Walmart, Other Retailers To Not Abandon Chicago."  It continues,  "There were earlier reports that Walmart expected to rebuild all stores trashed by looters and vandals, but company officials later said they would open some stores and would not say which ones."  I don't know, if I've had to jump through all sorts of hoops and take all sorts of abuse just to open a store in a city, and then the residents trash it, well, I might be considering a more tactful way of telling the mayor what she told Our [then -- Ed.] President.
It's not any better for the Chicago area dollar stores. "The article also reports on Les Miserables manifestations at the dollar stores, which acknowledge the shrinkage and their enhanced security efforts."

Not too long ago I cracked wise about Dollar General adding a few two dollar items and setting up a store in an unexpected place.  "What intrigues, though, is that now Dollar General would like to set up shop in Milwaukee's upscalish Third Ward."  That was toward what transpired as the end of Trumpian prosperity, and perhaps Dollar General was running out of poor neighborhoods to expand in.  Or was it the early warning, Dollar General could not sustain its business model if there was a lot of shoplifting?

Self-serve retail: caught on in a big way in the American High, now a casualty of whatever we shall call this era of diminished expectations and no standards.

THIS NEIGHBORHOOD IS ZONED FOR NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.

I've had some fun with zoning follies.  No pickup trucks in your driveway! No above-ground swimming pools in your back yard!  (How many palms do you have to grease to get an in-ground pool and the requisite fencing approved?)

Apparently, it's now possible to experience the frustration on your own computer or mobile device.
City building games have gotten ever more intricate. But if it's realism you want, you can't go wrong with Sim Nimby. The online parody of Sim City doesn't have particularly impressive graphics or great gameplay. But it does teach users what it's like to be a big city developer in the real world of intrusive government driven by overreaching neighbors.

Anyone trying to construct an apartment building, road, or rail network will get hit with a series of obstructing pop-ups screaming "Won't someone think of the property values!," "Keep our local fiefdom weird!," or "Live, laugh, love showing up to these town halls and stopping your building." Eventually the player realizes nothing is getting built and quits.
That's a simulation, but Reason's Christian Britschgi notes it's still freeware. In reality you probably have to pay to be frustrated. "As a result, new homeowners, renters, and small business owners pay inflated costs for their space."  Now, if you live in Brooklyn, as the developers do, you also get to have a ditzy representative of Congress who will keep employers from building new capacity there.

9.12.22

BET ON EMERGENCE.

The recent, federally mandated labor agreements between the railroads and the various unions didn't please anybody.  What politics can't do, market tests might.  "Creative destruction still works faster than politics .  Maybe a few more operating crews on the extra board and a more understanding approach to marking off?"

Yes.
To provide more predictability in road freight service, [Union Pacific] is working with the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen on the pilot program that lets engineers know when they’ll work every 15 days.

Under the “11 and four” schedule, engineers know which 11 days they’ll work and which four days they’ll be off during every 15-day period, [vice president of operations Eric] Gehringer told an investor conference on Tuesday.

“It’s something we have to do through the collective bargaining agreement. We can’t just instantly put that across the system,” Gehringer says, adding that he’s excited to see what the results will be over the 60 days left in the pilot program.
But wait, as the Breathless TV Pitchman says, there's more!
UP is nearing its goal of hiring 1,400 train and engine employees this year, Gehringer says, with two-thirds of the new hires in active service and one-third in training.

But the railroad remains short of crews across its northern tier and is offering hiring bonuses of $10,000 to $25,000 to new conductors at some locations, including Cheyenne and Green River, Wyo.; Salt Lake City and Helper, Utah; Portland, Ore.; and Seattle.

“We still have those pockets where we are constrained,” Gehringer says. UP aims to hire about 500 additional conductor trainees this year.

Getting back to full strength on train crew staffing levels will improve service and help UP be more resilient when extreme weather or other events hit the railroad, UP executives say.

If the economy softens and freight demand drops, UP will use furloughs as a last resort so that it has enough crews to handle a rebound, Gehringer says. “That’s not a tool that we employ without thinking very carefully through that, because what we want to be most prepared for is when the demand shifts. We want to be able to capture that without missing a beat,” Gehringer says.
Let's tack on another Yes.  "CSX Transportation and Union Pacific have relaxed their attendance policies in response to labor concerns."  On both carriers, demerit points (did you know, dear reader, that on the railroad, "Brownie points" are not meritorious?) no longer go on the railroader's Permanent Record.  Santa's list or St. Peter's Book are another matter.

The thought of not being able to run trains for lack of people to operate them concentrates management minds, doesn't it?

ELIGIBILITY STUDIES AT AUBURN.

Faculty who hold administrative positions have some obligation to uphold the administrative line, but there are limits.
[Economist Michael] Stern’s attorneys successfully argued that Joseph Aistrup, a former dean at the College of the Liberal Arts, illegally relieved him from his job as department chair in May 2018 because he criticized the school for placing a disproportionate number of athletes in a “troubled” public administration major, according to the complaint.

“Dr. Stern’s statements about the alleged clustering of student athletes in the Public Administration major were a motivating factor in Dr. Aistrup’s decision to remove Dr. Stern as chair of the department of economics,” the jury concluded on November 15.

The professor successfully demonstrated that “Airstrup acted with malice or reckless indifference to Stern’s federally protected rights,” according to the verdict.
Usually, the eligibility studies major is something like communication studies or sport management. Public administration, particularly at the graduate level, can be a worthwhile activity. For instance, you'll likely find a city manager or the like with a Master of Public Administration from Northern Illinois almost anywhere in the State Line or Greater Chicago. Apparently not so much at Auburn.

More importantly, department heads still retain some autonomy as scholars and stewards of the curriculum.
A law professor at George Washington University and a commentator on free speech issues wrote that the jury made the right decision.

“Professor Stern went public with his view that the university was using the College of Liberal Arts’ Public Administration major to offer athletes an easy education, particularly as part of the school’s famed football program,” Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law expert, wrote November 18 on his blog.

Turley wrote that while it is commendable when professors have the courage to voice dissenting views, Stern’s criticism of the prestigious Auburn football program “takes an unparalleled level of chutzpah.”

“The decision is a substantial victory for free speech,” Turley wrote.
Better, too, to call attention to the student part of "student-athlete" being neglected before some star athlete sues the university for educational malpractice when his inability to read finally catches up with him.

Inside Higher Ed's Colleen Flaherty provides additional details.  I like the cut of Professor Stern's jib.
Stern became something of a thorn in Auburn’s side in 2008, when he worked with a local reporter on a story alleging that Auburn was accepting money from the Charles Koch Foundation in ways that undermined the economics department’s academic integrity. In retaliation for Stern’s internal and external activism, Auburn in 2009 suddenly moved the department of economics out of the College of Business and into the College of Liberal Arts, the lawsuit said. Around this time, Stern’s new dean allegedly opposed his tenure bid, as did the provost, contradicting the positive recommendation of his department. Stern’s tenure was granted by appeal, in 2010.

Later that year, Stern was elected chair of the economics department. He eventually developed a good rapport with his new dean, but that dean was “run off” in 2013 over a then-quiet dispute about whether to keep the public administration major open at the behest of Auburn’s athletics programs, according to the lawsuit. A new dean, Joseph Aistrup, was appointed.
There's an instructive side story. Imagine a former pro football player with some math chops conducting a clinic on "disproportionate participation".
Football player and mathematician John Urschel, who at the time was playing for the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens and who has no connection to Auburn, raised the issue in late 2014, however, arguing in a blog post that that the high density of Auburn players majoring in public administration only had a one in three undecillion chance of occurring randomly.

"A stunning 23 out of the 48 upperclassmen student athlete football players are enrolled in public administration," Urschel wrote. "Logically, it must be a fairly common major, right? This is where things take a turn for the worse. As of last spring, only 88 of the 11,402 upperclassmen in the whole university were majoring in public administration!"

In other words, Stern's lawsuit said, “pretty low odds" that this was random.
The baccalaureate in public administration might be a rare sort of program, with most of the action being in the master's degree.  What were the academic profiles of the other 65 majors?  It takes some insider knowledge to understand that the M.P.A. is the main public administration degree, often open to people holding elective or appointed office irrespective of undergraduate degree, and that this Auburn program is eligibility studies without the taint of communication or underwater basketweaving.
Stern shared some of this information with The Wall Street Journal, which published an explosive article just ahead of 2015’s football season. The article said that in 2013 about half of students majoring in public administration at Auburn played sports, including nearly all the top players on the football team. The Journal quoted emails from athletics officials internally lobbying for the major, as well. In one case, an official wrote that “If the public administration program is eliminated, the [graduation success rate] numbers for our student-athletes will likely decline.” In another, an athletics official seemed to be offering money to fund the public administration program, which Stern considered an “institutional bribe.” Stern was quoted in the Journal as describing Auburn athletics as a “second university” in its power.
There has to be a public administration degree, or perhaps an economics department, for Auburn's football team to be proud of, right?

FRIDAY short TAKES.

The Christmas rush is upon us, and every locomotive capable of running is in use.  We never lack for material, do we?  Beware "intellectuals".  "The typical intellectual more and more fancies himself or herself as being a member of the planning board for society’s Shining Tomorrow from which will be eradicated – in the name of love, course – all want, fear, unhappiness, hate, danger, and differences among humans."  Speaking of flights of fancy: "Demonstrators drew attention to the worsening crisis of fuel poverty and called on lawmakers to pick up more of the tab for skyrocketing bills, fund home insulation, and accelerate clean energy production—all of which would be made easier by enacting a stronger tax on oil and gas corporations' windfall profits."  Speaking of that Shining Tomorrow:  "While you ponder that, here’s another question: when are Democrats going to condemn their party’s constant erosions of the Constitution and the rule of law? Their efforts to erode Federalism, abolish the electoral college, add states to tack on Democrat Senators, weaponizing the IRS, FBI and DOJ, squat on the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 10th and 14th Amendments, circumvent the First Amendment via 'public/private partnership' between Big Tech and the Democrat Party, weaponize “Emergency Orders”, pack the SCOTUS?" That's why the Sunday shows are so annoying. “You can’t come out against someone who supports suspending the Constitution?”

Meanwhile, there's real life.  "The economy is still atrocious. The job market is hot but so is inflation. Interest rates are going to continue to go up. Crime is still a problem that now the media is willing to report on. There’s still a crisis at the border. There’s still a fundamental lack of leadership in the world. And the voters are concerned about all these things."  And the epistemic closure in our ruling circles is destructive.  "American liberalism has remarkably come to resemble nineteenth-century British Tory Radicalism, an aristocratic sensibility that combined strong support for centralized monarchical power with a paternalistic concern for the poor."  Make that paternalistic disdain.  "Our 'betters' in tech, media, and government have gaslighted us so often, we can never believe a word they say again."


The weekly round-up of pithy elaborations of traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

PASS THE POPCORN.

It doesn't matter that Bernie Sanders wrote the 2020 Democrat platform, and Dementia Joe and the rest of the gerontocracy have been attempting to implement as much of it as they can within the margin of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema and now a Republican House of Representative.  A year ago, I noted, "[T]he communist on corporatist fratricide is taking precisely the form I anticipated."  Yes, in the intervening year, there is a new infrastructure porkulus, putting local governments on the hook for future repairs of the shiny new bridges or water mains the federal money went to, and an abridged "build back better" took shape as the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.

But now, Dementia Joe wants to change the order of the Democrats' presidential primaries, and the communist wing doubts that it's about "equity."
President Joe Biden has directed the Democratic National Committee to reduce the danger that progressives might effectively challenge him in the 2024 presidential primaries. That’s a key goal of his instructions to the DNC last week, when Biden insisted on dislodging New Hampshire—the longtime first-in-the-nation primary state where he received just 8 percent of the vote and finished fifth in the 2020 Democratic primary. No wonder Biden wants to replace New Hampshire with South Carolina, where he was the big primary winner.

The White House and mainstream journalists have echoed each other to assert that Biden would face no serious challenge to renomination if he runs again. But his blatant intrusion into the DNC’s process for setting the primary calendar is a sign of anxiety about potential obstacles to winning renomination.

Unlike all other states under consideration for early primaries, South Carolina is not a battleground state. Everyone knows that the Democratic ticket won’t come close to winning in deep-red South Carolina in 2024. But that state—which Biden obviously sees as vital to his renomination—has a party apparatus dominated by Biden’s powerful corporatist ally, Congressman James Clyburn.
James Clyburn, who is another of the Democrats' gerontocrats, is apparently not socialist enough for the Common Dreams crowd. Thus a primary challenge is desirable.
From health care, extreme economic inequality, labor rights and racial justice to military spending, foreign policy and the climate emergency, voters in Democratic primaries need to hear crucial issues debated.

The current prevailing attitudes are retrograde. While Democratic politicians and pundits weigh in on whether Biden should run for president again, his party’s voters are presumed to be little more than spectators. But the decision on whether Biden will be the nominee in 2024 shouldn’t be his alone. A party that has been emphasizing the importance of democracy should not be so eager to short-circuit it in the presidential nominating process.

Very few congressional Democrats have been willing to publicly depart from the party line that Biden would be a fine standard-bearer. The few dissenting voices among them are usually furtive.
We have much to look forward to.

A FUTURE PLOT COMPLICATION FOR THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC.

Kurt Schlichter has been writing a series of novels about an internal split of the United States into coastal areas controlled by the communist wing of the Democrats as the People's Republic of North America, and a surviving United States of America with fewer states.  In a few of those novels, the Democrats create a People's Militia out of liberated prisoners.  "The formula is simple enough: arm some former felons, tell them they are facing a race and class enemy, condition them to think of that enemy is "deplorable" (an Americanized version of Untermenschen), then turn them loose." That works to deal with the cowed normals within the People's Republic, but it doesn't work so well in the contested territory, or the United States, where people with field or military experience have better fire discipline.

Here's the plot complication.  Vladimir Putin is apparently freeing prisoners and turning them into irregulars.  It isn't working so well.  "They’re finally realizing they’ve been duped." They're moping off, or turning themselves in to Ukrainians, and asking not to be returned in any prisoner swaps. In addition, the recruitment videos include recorded executions of deserters.
About 20 armed inmates fled from the frontline in occupied Donetsk in recent days and the Russian military was forced to launch a manhunt for members of its own team, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Thursday. Three of the “fugitives” were killed in the ensuing search, Ukrainian authorities said, wryly noting: “Beat your own, so that others are afraid, as they say.”

The hunt was reportedly still on for the other fleeing inmates.
Even the people who do their hitch, and earn their freedom, return to Mother Russia with whatever bad memories combat brings, and their criminal skills intact.

THE SUCCESSION STILL MATTERS.

Not the British Monarchy, the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers.  In that post, the worst case scenario was a protracted losing streak going into Bears Week.  Reality, now that the two wins over the Bears are in hand, is not that gloomy.
Although the Packers entered their long-awaited bye week at 5-8 following a 28-19 victory over Chicago, they are still alive in the NFC playoff chase.

While the Minnesota Vikings can clinch the NFC North title by beating or tying the Detroit Lions, the Packers would finish 9-8 if they can win out, beginning with their “Monday Night Football” post-bye matchup at home against the fading Los Angeles Rams (currently 3-9).
Those "fading Rams" are now 4-9 after a replacement quarterback took advantage of some Las Vegas errors for a last minute win on Thursday, and they'll be coming to Titletown rested.

The succession, though, still matters.
With Rodgers’ injuries, the team’s long-shot playoff chances and Love’s strong showing in 10 fourth-quarter snaps against Philadelphia two weeks ago, it would make sense to take a look at Love and other youngsters during the final month.

Even Rodgers himself acknowledged the possibility of not playing once the team is eliminated from playoff contention, although in 2018, after the firing of Mike McCarthy with four games left to play, Rodgers still started all four games before suffering a concussion in the season finale against Detroit.

“Look, I’d love to finish the season out. But I understand this is a business,” Rodgers said. “There’s a lot of us older guys who play a decent amount and they might want to see some younger guys play.

“Hopefully, we don’t have to have that conversation. But if that conversation comes up, I’ll approach that with an open mind and without any bitterness or resentment,” he said.
Best case scenario, the new quarterback continues to develop, the young receivers gain experience, and the transition to another quality quarterback occurs.  First, though, let's see what the remaining four games bring.

(A historical note: in the 1940s, the pro football season was already over by now.  With this eighteen week schedule, there's football almost to when pitchers and catchers report.)

8.12.22

AS TIME GOES BY.

Christopher Flannery provides a back story or three to Casablanca.
The film premiered on Thanksgiving Day 1942, just two weeks after the city of Casablanca in the real world had surrendered to American forces. The premiere was sold out and, after opening titles, the first thing the 1,500 people in the theater would see on the big screen was “a revolving globe,” which, as the script describes, “turns briefly into a contour map of Europe, then into a flat map. Superimposed over the map are scenes of refugees fleeing from all sections of Europe by foot, wagon, auto, and boat, and all converging upon one point on the tip of Africa—Casablanca.”
Where the refugees without papers or pull wait and wait and wait.
In the film, if you pay attention, it’s the first week of December, 1941. America is far away and seemingly asleep. But here in the Vichy-controlled African port city of Casablanca, the grim reality of Nazi tyranny casts its shadow over everything. The emotional turning point of the film is a scene in Rick’s Café, where Nazi officers begin singing the German patriotic song Die Wacht am Rhine, [c.q.] whereupon the Czech resistance leader Victor Laszlo, played by Paul Henreid, orders with Rick’s approval the house band to strike up La Marseillaise, the French national anthem.

The most stirring part of the scene is played by LeBeau, the young French girl we know as Yvonne, who stands up to join in the song. We have seen her, having been spurned by Rick, coming into the bar on the arm of a German officer, an act of treachery during those times that was common and would be severely punished after the war. But now we see her showing her true colors, standing up for her country and its cause. This is where her true loyalty lies. Tears are streaming down her face as she cries, “Vive la France!” and “Vive la démocratie!”

And she wasn’t the only one with tears streaming down her face. One of the American born actors, who played the doorman Abdul at Rick’s Café, noticed many of his fellow actors shedding real tears during that scene, and recalled, “I suddenly realized that they were all real refugees.”

Almost all of the 75 actors and actresses cast in Casablanca were immigrants, refugees from more than 30 different countries, most of them in war-torn Europe. Of the 14 actors given screen credit, only three were born in the United States. The living experience of Nazi tyranny, and the living experience of the fight for freedom were overwhelmingly present on the studio set in Burbank, California. Their own living experience of Nazi tyranny and of the fight for freedom that was still going on and was still uncertain, made those scenes overwhelming in their effects on the souls of those refugees. They are singing and weeping with souls full of defiance for tyranny and resolution on behalf of the cause of freedom.
The French, apparently, regard Mme. LeBeau's performance in Casablanca right up there with Delacroix's Liberty Leading the People as a symbol of French resistance to tyranny.

IT WAS NOT GIVEN TO ME TO FINISH THE TASK.

For years, I have contemplated the dubious writing skills of university seniors, and wished for the railroad custom of time-slipping the English department, meaning I get extra pay for doing the work somebody else should have done.  I don't care if you're all into semiotics or loopy French philosophy, or potted political economy.  It does no good to expose new matriculants to recondite concepts they're not capable of understanding, let alone explaining.

Time slip or not, I still have sufficient F.U. money to spout off.  It's up to others, such as Houston's Adam Ellwanger, to continue the task.
I am one of the few tenured English professors at my university who still teach freshman writing courses. This is a task that many faculty avoid: the writing is often very poor, making for demanding teaching and grading. For these reasons, the freshman sequence is often taught by lecturers, graduate students, and untenured faculty. This trend holds across the nation.
That works about as well as boot camp without senior noncoms.
I work at a large, urban university in Texas, where a high proportion of our students are from minority groups. As the freshman course begins each semester, I ask the students for the total number of polished, revised, typed pages of writing they produced during their entire senior year of high school. In the years prior to the pandemic, the answers typically ranged from 10 to 20 pages across all their courses over 9 months of schooling. Students admitted after the beginning of COVID-19 have reported even less: generally between 4 and 12 pages.

Anything less than 40 pages of formal, revised, graded writing over the course of the senior year will probably ensure that a student struggles with the workload of the freshman year of college. In practice, college freshmen are being asked to produce four times as much writing as most did during their last year of high school…in one-third of the time.

It should come as no surprise that for many students this is an impossible task. Consider also that instructors’ expectations regarding the quality of writing is significantly higher in post-secondary institutions.
It's on the institutions of higher education to make the high schools liable for their delivery of Distressed Material.  Perhaps that is too much to ask, even at Christmas, when you'd better hope Santa's list of who is Naughty or Nice is accurate and legible.  Professor Ellwanger sees the problem.
Teachers could put lower expectations on students, but that ensures that students with average and better-than-average skills learn nothing new. The most under-prepared students get a shot at getting a passing grade, but they also learn very little. Ultimately, removing any rigor from the course simply incentivizes mediocrity.

There are really only two ways to address these issues: either rehabilitate high school curricula to ensure college readiness or make college admission much harder to achieve. For a variety of reasons, neither of these solutions is practicable at this moment. The catastrophic consequences of our pandemic-era policies continue to compound.
The students, though, might have figured out that wearing down the standards by refusing to go along might work.
“The vast majority of students (87%) say they have felt at least one of their college classes was too challenging and should have been made easier by the professor,” the survey found.

However, 71 percent of students spend fewer than 10 hours per week on studying, and a total of 87 percent of students spend fewer than 15 hours per week hitting the books.

The survey organization found that about one-third of students who think they work hard fail to put in more than five hours a week into schoolwork. “But of the 64% who say they put in a lot of effort, one-third also say they spend less than 5 hours a week studying and on homework,” the group reported.
The rot has been a long time in coming. It is reversible, but that's not how contemporary administrators roll.
“Students first need to adjust their expectations about the nature and purpose of education,” [National Review contributor Stanley] Kurtz said, responding to the minimal effort put in by students, despite many thinking they are working hard.

“In a proper college classroom, students come to understand that there aren’t enough hours in a day or years in a lifetime to drink in or grapple with the choices offered by the greatest pieces of literary, philosophical, or religious thought,” he said.

“Professors who are ‘difficult’ in this way should be rewarded with promotions, prizes, and praise,” Kurtz said. “Colleges should compete to hire them. Administrators who discourage, punish, or dismiss professors who are ‘difficult’ in this way—like the professor of organic chemistry fired by NYU—should themselves be dismissed and replaced.”
Unfortunately, Student Affairs types are too prone to find "disparate impacts" in any application of standards, and that diminishes the diversity, inhibits the inclusion, and erodes the equity.  Never mind that diversity, inclusion, and equity of that form is a long-term suicide mission for a no-longer-higher education.
Kurtz also expressed some concern for how this trend could hinder the future workforce. “Obviously, students coddled with reduced expectations for work in college will fail in the workforce, or corrupt it, or both,” Kurtz said. “That said, the solution requires more than demands for increased work and discipline—although that is certainly part of the picture.”
To appropriate another academic worship-word, that course is not sustainable.

ADVANTAGE, COLD SPRING SHOPS.

I still don't care who gets the credit.
What did I tell you in 2005? "Huh? I'll never lack for work explaining the backward-bending labor supply curve.  The Left and the Right have been trading shots for years over whether it's unions or economic growth that contributed to rising wages, and whether the shorter workweek antedated the Fair Labor Standards Act."  Did I change my mind in 2011?  "That's long been a pet cause at Cold Spring Shops, although it's something more likely to emerge out of a multitude of small decisions long before any new Fair Labor Standards Act codifies it."
Bet on emergence.
Turns out, less really is more.

That’s the consensus among a group of companies that participated in a six-month experiment to downsize the work week from 40 hours over five days to 32 hours over four, with no reduction in pay.

In the end, the vast majority — company and worker, both — said they were hooked on the concept, with nearly everyone saying it was unlikely they’ll ever go back to normal.
Bear in mind, dear reader, that "normal" used to mean on the clock, all the time, whether that was for pay or for performance.

A LEGACY, BUT NO "UNSINKABLE" IN THE MARKETING MATERIALS.

Book a transatlantic passage, get promotional materials from transatlantic carriers.  "Today, Cunard White Star Service® is a lasting legacy of our historical connection to the White Star Line and honors the golden era of these elegant and luxurious vessels." Which luxurious vessels, though?  "When the construction of the Queen Mary stopped in 1931, only one year after work began, the British Government loaned Cunard the funds to finish constructing Queen Mary and build a sister ship (Queen Elizabeth). Cunard White Star came together when a new company was formed in May 1934 with Cunard owning a 62% share. In 1947, Cunard bought the remaining 38% share from White Star’s creditors."

The combined company sought Royal Assent to name ships after consorts who became Dowager Queen and Queen Mother to come up with a new naming convention.  White Star's liners had names ending in -ic, such as Britannic, whilst Cunard's liners had names ending in -ia, such as Britannia.

The choice of White Star Academy as a name for the training program for the staff is on point, as White Star tended to emphasize the lavish onboard experience, to the extent that is possible at sea, while Cunard emphasized the speed of crossing, holding the Blue Riband until after the War.

6.12.22

YEAH, HERE'S HOW YOU GET THAT YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC.

Apparently, the poobahs of public radio recognized that they had a senescence problem.

Power Line's Steven Hayward found out how they fixed it.

Even got the look right. Enjoy.

ARE WE STILL HIGGLING OVER THE SAME THINGS?

Fifteen years ago, I wrote,
There's more action in Congress on an immigration bill, perhaps with more border enforcement, and perhaps without any amnesty. A Time reporter visits Illinois and files a case for amnesty. He sensibly observes that the perceived unfairness of granting immediate amnesty to people who haven't been waiting a long time for legal entry might, just might, be evidence of flaws in the legal procedure.
Oh, there were flaws in the legal procedure then, and there still are.  Ask any director of graduate studies about the joys involved in student visas, or any academic personnel officer about the joys of securing work permits or permanent residency for new faculty.  The flaws, though, are interconnected, whether we're dealing with restrictive border enforcement then, or whatever passes for border enforcement now.
The two procedures cannot be tweaked in isolation. The more onerous the legal admission procedures are, the larger is the pool of potential illegal migrants, and under some circumstances that pool will be more skewed toward people with desirable skills.
That post continued, by developing the technical details of the argument, and if you want more technical details, I've got more.  There's a lengthy Cato Institute policy analysis looking at the effects of changing temporary worker status for Mexican nationals on border apprehensions in the United States, which concludes
This analysis shows that guest worker visas can provide an important avenue for reducing border apprehensions by driving would‐be illegal border crossers into legal temporary visas. The periods during which Bracero and H‑2 visas were issued in higher numbers provide critical lessons for the administration and Congress to understand how best to use guest worker visas to further reduce apprehensions—both for Mexicans and non-Mexicans—at a low cost to taxpayers. Perhaps the most crucial insight is that discretion matters. Top officials must tell lower officials that an important goal of these programs is to reduce illegal immigration, as INS officials did in the 1950s and again in the 1980s.
Much of the current foot traffic at the southern border, the authors argue, is a consequence of labor shortages in some United States labor markets.

Politics, alas, gets in the way of the logic.
On the surface, this is a win for both parties.  The Democrats will have 2 million new voters in the form of DREAMers and new asylum-seekers, who are likely to be future Democrats voters.  The Republicans will have border security, the removal of migrants, and the continuation of COVID-19-based restrictions.

The Democrats are claiming that the lame-duck session is the last opportunity to pass immigration legislation.  They could also claim that 3 out of the 5 points of the deal are in favor of the GOP; hence, the GOP should sign on.
I grow weary of that "importing Democrat voters" talk.  Democrats give the impression, much of the time, that they don't like their country, and it should be straightforward for Republicans to flip some of those DREAMers, who might have earned citizenship in the military or helped establish a family business, thus making such a proposal even more favorable to Republicans.  If you're a polemicist, you engage in polemics.
The WaPo laments that President Donald Trump, his adviser Stephen Miller, and "right-wing media propagandists" such as Tucker Carlson "amplify that toxic message to enrage the base" — i.e., it scares GOP lawmakers from compromising on their principles and giving Democrats easy victories.

Yes, it is ironic that propagandists such as the WaPo have the audacity to attack others as propagandists, but the sanctimonious rarely have any self-awareness.

The WaPo was unknowingly highlighting the importance of the MAGA movement. Trump, Miller, and Carlson are the few standing not only against the Democrats, but also against establishment Republicans, who readily capitulate before the Democrats.
I don't know, a president who defeated an even less appealing opponent, and an amen corner that hasn't fared so well in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections might want to rethink its message.

Amusingly, deep in that essay comes -- recognition of the flaws in the legal procedure.
The presence of illegal aliens is a burden on the taxpayers and the facilities and infrastructure meant for citizens. If illegal migrants work for less than minimum wage and without benefits, once again, the citizen could see a drop in wage or be rendered unemployed. If the illegal migrants are of the criminal variety, once again the victims of these crimes will be citizens. Usually, it is the working class who suffers from this.

In the end, every country has laws that have to be followed, and immigration laws are not at all different.

The only way to enter or temporarily work in the U.S. is to apply for a visa and undergo a thorough background check and an interview. If the applicant clears all of these phases, he can enter or temporarily work in the U.S. The duration of stay and work also depends upon the visa permits.

The only path to citizenship is by naturalization, by marriage, through your parents, or through the military. Each route has its own set of specific requirements that must be followed.
I have to wonder how many lawful residents and citizens willingly participate in the underground economy that first paragraph suggests.  I also wonder whether the difficulties, whether as a legal or illegal immigrant, in achieving that status are so trivial as to make people go through all that trouble at the border simply to go on welfare.  The third paragraph, though, is the key to my argument, and the Cato analysis appears to bear it out: more expeditious vetting and receipt of work permits reduces the illegal or hope-for-the best entry.  I suspect more expeditious vetting would be welcomed by those graduate studies directors and personnel managers.

THE PELTZMAN EFFECT, AT ONE REMOVE.

Automobiles go faster because they have brakes.  "Bet on the side of the Law of Unintended Consequences, particularly where a safety appliance changes the incentives to live more dangerously."

What happens, though, when the person using the safety appliance is not the person living more dangerously?  "Motorists Punish Helmet-Wearing Cyclists With Close Passes, Confirms Data Recrunch."  A University of Bath psychologist called Ian Walker apparently made himself a human subject, and took notes.
Half the time he wore a bicycle helmet and half the time he didn’t. The results showed motorists tended to pass him more closely when he rode wearing a helmet. Such “punishment passes” can also lead to collisions, collisions which can result in injury and death – and not to those guilty of the dangerous overtakes.

Walker suggested that drivers believe cyclists who wear helmets are more serious, experienced and predictable than those who ride without, and motorists, therefore, overtake them with less care. Drivers may also wrongly assume that cycle helmets – usually made from expanded-polystyrene – are forms of armor that will protect cyclists in any impact from motor vehicles. Cycle helmets are not designed for such collisions (they do not even protect against concussions.)

Jake Olivier and Scott Walter of the University of New South Wales took Walker’s original data and recrunched it, claiming in 2013 that “bicycle helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing.”
The things people will do for Minimal Publishable Units.  I suspect the now somewhat old article got another mention on infrastructure Twitter was for the opportunity to deplorable-shame those "punishment passers" (if they even exist).  It's worth reminding people that the point of doing research is to get some sort of handle both on the truth and on the margin of error.  "Whether or not bicycle helmets offer whole-population safety benefits is a surprisingly fractious debate among academics – there is no settled science on the matter."