The first reports for the experimental delivery drones being shot down came out of the U.S. in 2016 and 2017, says Dimple Jumani, Air Navigation Trainer at Sanad Academy. It is one of the GCC region’s first drone training facilities endorsed by the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority (DCAA).
“In one of the cases, the person shot the drone, took the delivery package and just ran away,” Jumani says.
The incidents raised eyebrows about the viability of drones and the current methods of securing a drone from such attacks. “Because developing drone technology costs millions of dollars and if it takes one person to bring it down, then what is the future?” she says.
As the world shut down to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the pandemic exposed the cracks in the complex supply chains and led to production disruptions, particularly in the East Asia Pacific region. The United Arab Emirates also witnessed a negative impact on its logistics market.
As the pandemic saw an overarching demand in home deliveries, companies started looking for more efficient ways of deliveries with reduced cost, time, and human contact.
Even before the pandemic, companies like Amazon, Walmart or even Uber had already been experimenting with drones to enhance the existing delivery systems.
Walmart is also working with Zipline to launch a first-of-its-kind drone delivery operation in the U.S. Zipline can service a 50-mile radius, promising quick on-demand delivery within an hour. They use fixed-wing drones for their deliveries which can go up to 100 kmph (60+ mph) cruising speed over long distances.
To date, they’ve delivered more than 200,000 critical medical products to thousands of health facilities across multiple countries. In the coming years, the economic potential of drones is likely to increase as drones make their way into the commercial sector.
Goldman Sachs estimated that by 2020, there was going to be a $100-billion market opportunity for drones—helped by growing demand from the commercial and civil government sectors.
Drone technology seems to be the next step in developing smarter and more connected cities. Drones have never been more appealing than they are right now. There is a growing demand in the consumer market for this service, especially since social distancing protocols are in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Uber’s Middle Eastern arm Careem has also claimed that it is also working on drone deliveries for its food delivery service, Careem Now. The cab-hailing service did not respond to request for comment.
In order to ensure drones are not a threat to anyone or to themselves, there are a number of regulations put in place by the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority (DCAA). According to these rules, drone operations are limited to day time and must maintain a visual line of sight (VLOS) and fly only 400 ft above the ground with a maximum take-off weight of 25 kg.
Asam Khan, CEO of Exponent Technology Services, a drone solutions provider in Dubai, says that they have managed to conduct deliveries by drones up to one kilometre but points out the VLOS is a serious inhibition of turning drone deliveries into a practical solution.
“It doesn’t make sense unless you can deliver 20 to 30 kilometres away,” Khan says. “As per law, flying within the visual line of sight of the pilot means a maximum of about one-and-a-half kilometres.”
“If that is the distance a drone can operate, it is cheaper to get packages delivered the usual way,” Khan says.
Exponent offers solutions which integrate Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAS) and auto-ID technologies. The company manages the product roadmap of the Unmanned Traffic Management (UTM) platform, which primarily deals with monitoring and tracking of drones.
Tracking of drones is one of the safety nets for regulators as drone incursions into airport airspace were responsible for three shutdowns in Dubai in 2016 — one for as long as 90 minutes, resulting in loss of millions of dollars.
Ayhan Kamil, Chief Commercial Officer at Exponent, explains, “If a drone goes into the engine of an aircraft, it could potentially lead to a big disaster. Even if there’s just one drone in the sky, that is a cause for concern. It is important to be aware of where a particular drone is at all times.”
To that end, Exponent has developed a product that registers operating drones into a system that will facilitate flight approvals. “Once you have the authorization in place, we can track and monitor those flights. Not only that, we can also ensure that there is separation and segregation between manned and unmanned traffic,” Kamil says.
Currently, a multi-rotor is the most popular drone in the market. They are the easiest and cheapest option available for getting an ‘eye in the sky’ and exploring drone deliveries with. They are ideal for vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) and hence, can be applied to drone deliveries.
Although the technology is still evolving, multi-rotors are fundamentally not very efficient as they consume a lot of energy to hover in the air. They require an on-board computer (autopilot) to pull off a stable flight.
With the current technology available in the market, they can offer around 20 to 30 minutes flight time when carrying a lightweight camera payload. The more the payload, the less the flight time will be.
Drones usually require Lithium polymer batteries for flights. Even though such batteries offer more power with less weight, they are not ideal to use for long-distance drone flights. These batteries cannot be left on a full charge for more than two to three days. They need to be discharged for safe storage.
Shafi Saidu, Director at Epic Film Production LLC, which offers drone services in video production industry across Middle East and Asia, says battery life is a challenge for long-distance drone flights.
“A consumer drone cannot go more than the maximum duration of 20 minutes in ideal conditions. It depends on the wind condition, the payload. DJI drones can give practical 20 minutes. But, usually 15 minutes of flight time is a sweet spot,” he says.
Image Credit: Epic Films LLC 
Shafi Saidu (L) with a team member
Image Credit: Epic Films LLC
Niiveth Mani, a spokesperson for Dubai-based drone solutions provider Falcon Eye Drones (FEDS), agrees that there needs to be further development in batteries to match the requirements of delivery models for drones.
“If we can unlock the limitations on batteries, we can support extended operation times for drones, allowing them to have a greater range,” Mani says. “But that advancement will come with time.”
Infrastructure is a major challenge that drones have to overcome especially in urban environments, says Kamil. The current city layout for drones isn’t as efficient and the process for upgrade will require an overall infrastructure transformation which has to be connected and sustainable. Dubai, particularly with its high rise buildings and proximity between structures, is not drone-friendly.
There needs to be a dedicated airspace corridor so drones don’t crash into each other or objects around them. A drone also has limitations when it comes to altitude. But currently, drones have the support and enthusiasm of early adopters who are observing the possibilities of drones being used in public settings.
The most recent development in the UAE has been the launch of Dubai Sky Dome project in Dubai. Announced last year, the project will see development of miniature helipads across the city and an air traffic control system called ‘Dubai Shield’.
This project will allow for the delivery of packages and even the transport of passengers. The Dubai Civil Aviation Authority (DCAA) has also introduced legislations for UAVs to use domestic airspace and ensure security as well as prevent any disruption to the civil aviation airspace.
The country is also exploring taking the logistics sector to a whole new level using drones. As it is, the UAE logistics market is expected to generate over $30 billion by 2025, according to the analysis by Ken Research.
The report suggests that the market is estimated to be valued at more than $1.6 billion. To further boost the sector, companies are experimenting on autonomous vehicles and drone deliveries for efficient and faster last-mile deliveries.
In 2017, US-based drone company Skycart partnered with Eniverse Technologies, a startup based in Dubai, to develop an autonomous drone delivery service for use in the UAE.
Waiting for official launch at the time the press release was published, the company promised to offer smart drones shipping solutions with cost savings and faster delivery times across Dubai.
There seems to be no further development in this case and the companies did not respond to enquiries either.
Jumani says the delay could be because of various issues and since the regulations do not cover all aspects of drone flights, they cannot figure out their position in the market yet.
“To enable a drone to fly within cities is really difficult. There is a question of public safety,” she says. “What if the drone malfunctions and falls out from the sky? Who will be responsible? It will take time to analyse how the drone will take good care of itself.”
Observing the trends that have emerged over the years, the technology is evolving faster than we can regulate it. In a number of videos shared with me, Exponent demonstrates how the technology for drone deliveries is already here. The company cannot share the videos publicly because of privacy and regulatory issues but confirmed it has pulled off many delivery solutions in Dubai with favourable results.
“We have demonstrated the concept but we can’t get the permission to conduct those flights commercially yet,” Khan says.
Image Credit: Sanad Academy/Facebook 
Image Credit: Sanad Academy/Facebook
But that is it, these instances are all just experiments in a controlled environment. The current drone technology has already surpassed manned aircraft in endurance, range, safety and cost efficiency – but the research and development are far from over.
There are more legal limitations than technical issues to drone deliveries beyond the visual line of sight.
Even though the technology is catching up, drones are being held back by the regulations in Dubai. A drone becomes very useful if it can travel five or even 10 km directly to its destination. It doesn’t have to follow traffic rules. But it requires constant vigilance, at least until the technology perfects itself.
“Even if I could do a delivery over long distances, I still need a pilot for the drone,” Khan explains. “That pilot is more expensive than the guy on the motorbike. So, it’s still much cheaper to conduct deliveries through traditional methods.”
Autonomous drones will be able to bring down the costs. “A drone that does not need a pilot can automatically navigate itself from pickup point to the delivery point, drop the package, and then come back by itself. And if you don’t have a pilot, you save that cost.”
“So, beyond the visual line of sight or BVLOS and autonomous navigation system, this is where the future of drones lies,” Khan adds.
In order for drones to become mainstream, technology and the infrastructure needs to be cheaper. That can be achieved through standardization, by doing things on a large scale which will automatically bring down the cost.
“Standardization of technology is the key here but it is not enough,” Kamil says. “Supplementary data including weather, obstacle detection is also required. When all these components come together on one platform, it complements the platform’s capabilities and designs.”
With further progress in the business model feasibility or economies of scale, it will become more clear on what sort of commercial viability exists.
Kamil explains, “The cut-throat competition among delivery companies, especially in Dubai, has enabled deliveries at very low cost. It’s pennies in comparison to what it would cost for a drone to do the same job as the guy on the motorbike.”
There are also ethical concerns when it comes to allowing drones with cameras to fly around cities, raising issues of privacy and safety. The primary concern with the flying of commercial drones over public space is that small mistakes could result in crashes that threaten the health, well-being and property of the public.
Mani says that public perception is one of the main challenges they face as a drone solutions company.
“They [drones] are either seen as invaders of privacy or something as trivial as toys. The more educated the general public is on drones and their benefits, the more industry penetration can be achieved,” says Mani.
Image Credit: Falcon Eye Drones (FEDS) 
Image Credit: Falcon Eye Drones (FEDS)
“But this shift in perception can only take place through awareness. More learning programs on drone technology should be incorporated into the curriculum and usher in a new age of drone professionals and tech literate youth,” he adds.
From the early days of drones, privacy and security were some of the issues that were raised and while the issues have not disappeared, they have lessened to a great degree. There’s a greater acceptance for seeing drones in the sky, says Khan.
In terms of privacy, there are laws that make it illegal to use a drone with a recording device over somebody’s private property. “So, while you can own a drone with a camera, you’re breaking the law if you try to take a picture of somebody without their permission,” he says.
Noise pollution coming from the drones will be a bigger concern for the general public, says Khan. “Drones make a lot of noise as they fly. In domestic areas, one may be fine but if there were hundreds of these drones coming every two minutes. People won’t be okay with that.”
Saidu does not believe that the regulations will change any time soon to make room for drone delivery systems. “In near future, it may come if there is a big leap in drone technology. If you ask me, whether drones can deliver stuff … Yeah, it can, but it is not economical or practical when it comes to current market demands.”
There is no guarantee that in the next 30 to 40 years, whether human resource will be as cheap as it is today for such use cases.
“So anyone who claims that drone deliveries are either a great business model and are going to take over the skies in the next two to five years is fooling themselves,” says Kamil.
The regulations required to truly unlock the exponential growth of drones haven’t been introduced yet. “If you want to fly a drone commercially, you need to have a trade licence and a company registered in Dubai. Sanad is endorsed by DCAA so we need permission from them to fly drones commercially in the city,” Jumani says.
The true potential of drones will only be unlocked once the regulations a re relaxed and cover all aspects of the technology involved.
“So, when Goldman Sachs and other research companies come up with a report, I don’t question the billion-dollar number, I question the timeframe,” Khan says.
He believes that the technology will be ready in another 10 to 15 years. “It is happening, but it’s happening a lot slower than what was predicted,” Khan says.
Through A New Lens 