LA probably has one of the toughest dating markets in perhaps the World. That explains why a lot of the original PUA culture from the 00s emerged from LA along with Miami. Men online focus primarily on hypergamy and feminism but demographic issues like an aging population, income inequality, and breakdown in social capital have a huge negative impact on dating dynamics. In contrast with Millennial Hipsters reviving public spaces, due to homelessness, urban decay, and rising crime, which make public spaces less safe and appealing, young women don’t go out as much in LA. LA’s high status crowd are having more private curated venues and invitation only parties that exclude the riff raff, and women are using dating apps to find a high status guy. Also, affluent zoomettes in LA are more likely to be into health conscious activities like yoga rather than going out to bars.

Ghost Party which I attended on Halloween

I’ve attended some really cool parties in LA, so it is not like I am a loser who doesn’t get invited to parties. There are these micro scenes like sort of Dime Square adjacent, with art hoes, even though that brand is dated and cliche. Beyond just dating, there is no sense of community unless you are rich, part of some ethnic immigrant community, or niche social scene, which I sort have found. During the millennial Hipster era, there were more opportunities to achieve status through creativity while zoomer culture is more superficial, even if LA has always been a tad materialistic and status obsessed. It is part of a broader enshattification that is hitting the country at large with smartphones, and dating apps. Us elder Millennials were the last generation to experience society before all that.

Gentrification leads to an increase in hot women, because they value safety and luxury amenities. That wave of millennial hipster gentrification of LA’s urban core slowed down, especially due to the pandemic, but also because Zoomer prospective gentrifiers are a smaller generational cohort. Basically, millennial hipsters were the last mass White youth subculture in America with Zoomers overall being much more non-White, as people socialize more with their ethnic clique rather than one mass youth culture like in the past. However, there is a more niche zoomer hipster subculture, like the Safe Sleazy types in Echo Park and Highland Park, but just less of a mass culture. Venice Beach, even as recently as the mid 2010s was all these young people living together with roommates and the boardwalk had a party atmosphere. Homelessness destroyed the boardwalk while the young renters were replaced by older more successful people, due to rents rising.

Echo Park

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Photo credit: Robert Stark

The big decline in LA’s mall culture started with the demographics becoming more third world around Y2k. Malls were finished off by e-commerce in the 2010s with the pandemic the final death knell. For instance, when I was a teenager, all the popular upper class coded teens from Pali high and all the private schools on the Westside would all congregate on the 3rd Street Promenade in Santa Monica every Friday and Saturday night. The Promenade ended up attracting a more third world clientele and then eventually became a ghost town except for the homeless. However, the Grove and Century City are still popular, as the Grove is a tourist trap and Century City appeals to a niche ultra wealthy clientele that feels like Dubai now.

Westside Pavilion Mall 1986

source: r/LosAngeles

Santa Monica

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Beverly Hills

Photo credit: Robert Stark

While I have seen a lot of demographic change as an older millennial, I can’t imagine how much of a transformation from when Boomers were young. I was talking to a rightwing Jewish boomer who grew up in Santa Monica. He told me that when he was young, Santa Monica beach was so blonde and Anglo that he felt out of place for being Jewish. Now whenever he visits, he is the only White guy amongst all the brown people. Gen X icon, Bret Easton Ellis, had a podcast in which he said the Norms in West LA was the hangout for all the good looking rich popular teens back in the 80s but he went back recently and it was all Mexicans, incels, and homeless people. I remember going to the 4th of July celebrations in the wealthy suburb of Palos Verdes in my youth in the late 90s and early 00s and it was all blonde teens. I went back there recently and it was a mix of old White people and middle aged Chinese immigrants.

Westlake Village

Photo credit: Robert Stark

The most dramatic demographic decline was in the White middle class, while the White upper class is also declining, albeit much more modestly. The wealthy Whites who are leaving LA are mostly relocating to Orange County, San Diego, the Conejo Valley bordering LA and Ventura County, and Santa Barbara, with a handful moving out of state to places like Scottsdale. The Pacific Palisades, which had the highest concentration of both White families and attractive White people more broadly, was destroyed by the fire. However, its residents mostly relocated to other areas in SoCal like Manhattan Beach and Newport Beach. In contrast, middle class Whites are more likely to leave California altogether.

Pacific Palisades

Photo credit: Robert Stark

The wave of school bussing induced White flight in the 70s, 80s, and 90s had an extremely dysgenic impact, with middle to upper middle class Whites fleeing LA in droves. For those who stayed, even among the more affluent, having to pay for private school negatively impacted their fertility. I remember as an adolescent how the most attractive girls attended private schools, which I was envious of while attending a ghetto public school.

We are seeing the bust of the echo boom in that the LA region had a ton of local attractive White Millennial girls that grew up on the Westside, nice parts of the Valley, and in various suburbs from Calabasas to Manhattan Beach. GenX was a smaller generational cohort than zoomers, which explains why Zoomers are a smaller cohort than Millennials, on top of a lot of Genxers getting priced out of LA’s housing market by Boomers. Despite being a larger cohort, a lot of Millennials can’t afford to start families in SoCal, so they either stay as aging hipsters or move out to Arizona, Texas, or Washington to start families. Meanwhile, there is a trend of affluent White zoomers in California attending universities in the South, as a reaction to both DEI and Asian grindset culture, but also the popularity of Southern frat and sorority culture from TikTok.

The main reason for this decline was not so much ethnic displacement but rather Boomer homeowners aging in place after their Millennial offspring have grown up. Older people are sitting on large homes that upper middle class families would otherwise have moved into and are not downsizing due to prop 13, which freezes property taxes. These tax breaks don’t benefit younger families that much. While it is the well off Boomers who are aging in place, there was a big wave of White middle class Boomers leaving SoCal in the 90s when they started families.

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While the ultra wealthy are not impacted, the cost of living crisis impacts the youth of the upper middle class, thus nimbyism is dysgenic. There isn’t that much new housing being constructed either for younger families or for the elderly to downside to. In contrast, immigrants can cram a bunch of people into one apartment or flop house, so they are more resistant to nimbyism. Basically, both prop 13 and nimbyism, which conservatives tend to support, are also to blame alongside immigration and school bussing. When the Boomers pass or if Boomers downsize if the economy really tanks, a lot of these aging wealthy communities will rapidly change demographically. However, there may be a lack of Millennials and Zoomers wealthy enough to afford these homes. Regardless, high fertility is starting to become a status symbol among subsets of the wealthy in California because it is a way to flex in an area with such extreme anti-natalist pressures.

Butterfly Beach in Montecito

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Attractive women came to LA to become starlets, stayed to create a social scene, and then settled down, married a rich guy, and passed down their genes into the upper class. A lot of various Millennial actresses also grew up in LA’s upper middle class suburbs. Due in part to the DEI takeover of the entertainment industry, far fewer attractive women are being hired for acting and behind the scenes roles, thus, there is less induced demand for attractive women from all over the country to seek their chances in LA. Even if DEI is being rolled back somewhat, the entertainment industry is in decline and leaving LA for economic reasons, as well as AI, which could wipe out Hollywood. Not to mention that because of the internet you no longer need to live in LA for fame.

While coastal SoCal has an aging and heavily non-White population, among the young Whites who remain, they are some of the best looking people in the nation. Especially among various exclusive upper class coded bubbles from Montecito near Santa Barbara to coastal South Orange County. There is this upper class coded caucasian spectrum starting with the Anglo/Germanic, and other European Whites, the quintessential California beach blondes, from old money to transplants. Then you have the blonde mischlings (half Jewish) who are really something, full on Ashkenazi, and then Persian Jewish. The Jewish and Persian population is probably stable, not declining like European Americans but not growing that much either.

LA native, actress Halston Sage, who epitomizes the archetype of upper class coded blonde Jewish women in LA

There were a lot of hot Russian and Ukrainian women showing up in LA under Biden, due to the war, but I have no idea if that is continuing under Trump. I also heard that there was an increase in Brazilian and Colombian immigration to LA from the Biden migrant wave, but no idea if there are a lot of hot women. If this war in the Middle East escalates, LA could attract a lot more hot Israeli and Iranian refugee women. Koreans are considered the hottest Asian women in LA and Korean immigration is much lower now and Korean fertility is abysmally low. The rich Chinese are more in Orange County and other suburbs like San Marino, in the San Gabriel Valley, and not so much in LA proper.

The hottest Latinas in SoCal are generally Mexican Americans whose families came from Jalisco or Northern Mexico in the 60s, 70s, and 80s (primarily harnizo with some castizo). California has done a poor job attracting hot Latinas over the past 30 years, as recent immigrants tend to be squat indigenous types from the poorer regions of southern Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America. Harnizos are like the popular clique among chicanos, so they tend to be more socially dominant and uppity while those more indigenous types from Oaxaca or Guatemala are more chill, humble, and tend to keep to themselves. Thus, I don’t necessarily dislike these people, as they are docile and are too low in status to try to cuck Whites socially and sexually.

The Latino immigrants who come to LA skew from the lower class, and lower classes are on average less attractive, as well as skew heavily male. However, immigration to LA is actually slowing down, and the Latino population is starting to age, which I guess is good from a racialist standpoint but terrible if you want to date young Latinas. Basically, no ethnic group is really growing that much anymore. Middle class Mexican Americans, like the White middle class before them, are also leaving LA for exurbs like the Inland Empire, Vegas, Phoenix, and Texas. You also have this hoeflation due to upward mobility among the harniza type Mexican American women. For instance, an attractive middle class harniza zoomette gets a college degree to become a girl boss while her Genx mom worked in fast food in her youth, thus likely has much higher dating standards. While a lot of millennial Latinos still aspired to whiteness, such as being hipsters, Latino Zoomers don’t view Whites as high status as previous generations.

LA is a hybrid of the third world and first world where the geni index for income inequality is at third world levels but women’s wages are at first world levels, a combo of which is a disaster for men’s dating prospects, unless they are at the top in looks, money and status. Basically, LA combines the worst aspects of Latin America and the Anglosphere in that it lacks the niceties of the Anglosphere, like cleanliness and high social trust, but lacks the better dating culture and fun culture of Latin America, where people party on the beach until early in the morning, which appeals to passport bros. In contrast, Latino immigrants mostly come here to work, so they don’t bring that party culture of Latin America, and their communities are fairly insular.

It is hard to predict whether LA will see more gentrification due to demographic and economic trends and leftwing politics. However, that original Hipster wave of gentrification coincided a recession, like we are facing now, while the economic recovery of the late 2010s meant that high status young people stuck to areas that were already nice and embraced materialism over bohemian novelty. If rents crash due to the recession, it is plausible that more young people, who were priced out, move back to LA with roommates. Also, California becoming more YIMBY and building a ton of new apartments, both affordable and luxury, might help LA attract and retain attractive women and is good for creating amenities where young people can meet each other, after the recession is over.

There is a conservative candidate for LA mayor, Spencer Pratt, who was a reality TV star who grew up rich and popular on the Westside of LA. While Pratt’s chance of winning is extremely slim, if he manages to win for some fluke, he has an obligation to make LA beautiful, eugenic, vital, sensual, and sexualized because of the kind of privilege and popularity he experienced in his formative years.

Even if LA’s image of glamour does not hold up as much anymore, the hype of LA being over is also overblown. There is also hype about LA having a comeback with the Olympics and the new subway down Wilshire to Beverly Hills. There is still this image of LA on instagram that strivers and rich people from across the globe aspire to. Not to mention the premium placed on living near the coast with a pleasant Mediterranean climate, if LA decides to capitalize upon it. However, I don’t see how the status quo can be sustained for another decade, so either LA improves or continues to deteriorate into a third world city.

Illustration of the execution of Mazdak from a copy of the Shahnameh via Wikipedia

I am not implying that the Iranian revolution turned out good, but it was closer to a genuine incel revolution than MAGA, and certainly incel driven revolutions can turn out ugly. MAGA lost all that vitalistic angry young male energy that initially helped bring Trump to power. Even if the Shah did some good, his opponents were better able to channel their pent up repressed sexual energy into this primal virile force. There is a tradition for incel revolution in Persian history with Mazdak, who was a revolutionary Zoroastrian priest, who not only redistributed the wealth of the aristocracy but also broke up their harems and redistributed the women to sexless peasant men. However, many historians also blame the Mazdak rebellion for weakening pre-Islamic Persia, thus making it vulnerable to the Islamic conquest.

The old pro-Shah Iranian elite were like the popular clique of Chads and Stacies whom the incel Iranians expelled, perhaps because the conceited upper class coded Shahi women would not let the lower class more Islamic incels lick their anuses. I grew up around that Shahs of Sunset diaspora crowd around Westwood and Beverly Hills, and certainly a lot of them are conceited, materialistic, and cliquish. There is also an element of female mate suppression in Iran, as the hotter women desire more sexual freedom, thus are more anti-regime, while more homely women support enforced modest attire to limit the sexual power of the hotter Iranian women. Regardless, I notice American guys online postings about hot Persian women or Persian baddies, either hoping they come as refugees or that Iran becomes a sex tourism destination. This is because these Persian women would be more economically vulnerable, unlike the rich diaspora Persian women in Beverly Hills who refuse to let American chuds lick their hairy anuses clean.

Even if the Iranian revolution was motivated by incel rage, today’s Iran has a lot of incels due to religious restrictions against premarital sex, albeit with temporary marriages for some circumstances. This is combined with delayed marriage due to female economic and educational attainment while men often lag behind. While Iran is not totally backwards like Pakistan, this hybrid of having a more educated people under a theocracy heightens female hypergamy. Incel rage in Iran is not just driving support for the regime but also a lot of the opposition. The anti-regime protesters were not all effete liberals and feminists but a lot of them were angry young men who can’t succeed economically to find a wife, which they blame the regime for.

In contrast with the Shah, who was a renowned womanizer, the current ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, is more incel coded, as he struggled with impotency and has struggled to find a wife. Trump was briefed that Iran’s new supreme leader is gay, and Trump laughed in response, which could just be to undermine the Ayatollah to his people. So basically, western chuds consider asceticism and monasticism to be gay, though young rightwing leaders like Nick Fuentes, who have turned on Trump, are embracing that archetype. Not to mention that the original Ayatollah Khomeini was rumored to be sexually weird, such as alleged writings about pedophilia and bestiality, which is used by the West and adversaries of Iran to associate that religious repression with sexual perversion, despite Trump likely being involved with Epstein.

You can hate Iran’s theocracy as tyrannical but figures like Ali Larijani, Abbas Araghchi, and the Ayatollah actually studied philosophy while Trump was a sleazy reality TV star. Even the last Ayatollah was not necessarily some primitive savage but as a young man he was a dissident who hung out with intellectuals and poets, thus he was akin to that sensitive young man archetype and someone driven to asceticism. In contrast, the Gulf Arabs are hedonists and materialists, despite Sunnis also being more doctrinaire about their religion, thus they can be bribed to be subservient to America and Israel. Principled radicals like Iran’s leadership are dangerous because they don’t submit and will fight to the bitter end. Even Hitler, who was an evil mass murderer, was also very principled and not someone who could easily be bought off by the pleasures of the senses.

As hard as MAGA copes, Trump is more like the Gulf Arabs, who are motivated by materialistic and carnal desires, then a principled nationalist who will fight to their last breath to save their nation. One way to look at the war is that Trump and Netanyahu are acting like bullies who pushes Iran to snap to become like a school shooter who then takes everyone down with them, as they feel like they have nothing left to lose. However, this analogy neglects that Iran was not necessarily suicidal and was responding to aggression, and that comparison could be made about Trump and Netanyahu, as they are literally bombing schools in Iran.

Trump, Netanyahu, the original Shah, his son who is also named Reza Pahlavi, and the Gulf monarchs, like Muhammad Bin Salman, are all extroverts and materialists. Trump in particular, is more the big man with the harem who hordes pussy and wealth from young men and then sends young men off to war, then the leader of the angry young male revolution, which many were hoping he would be. Trump life moggs his supporters, whom many are either older virgins or impotent with fat ugly wives. Trump has literally boasted about his sexual escapades on Howard Stern in the 90s. Trump has had carnal experiences with models that are beyond the comprehension of most of his male supporters while he is now a fat, gross, geriatric degenerate. Thus, his lower status young male supports should feel contempt for him rather than living vicariously through him. The so called alpha male Trump has been drained of all his phallic virility, especially as an older man, so the supposedly gay and impotent Ayatollah, ends up having more phallic virility.

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Initially the appeal to Trump was that he was a bully who mogged establishment figures like Jeb Bush in the debates. However, the Left ended up being proven right about Trump being a scumbag con man. Trump is the anthesis of the sensitive young man, introspective archetype, which makes it difficult for those types who were initially drawn to the alt-right to support him. Trump inherently respects those who already have wealth and power, like billionaires and zionists, thus he has contempt for his loser supporters, no matter how much he signals faux populism. Trump does not serve the people but rather responds to loyalty and praise, which is metaphorical phallus sucking and anal kissing.

Trump metaphorical fellates Netanyahu and when Trump does his hand pump dance to YMCA, does he imagine Netanyahu’s phalluses in his hands? Even that moment when Trump pulled out a chair for Netanyahu had some serious psychosexual undertones, as it was clear who was sexually dominant. Since Trump is America’s alpha male, by dominating Trump, Netanyahu proved that he is the more virile schlomo. Netanyahu’s son is banging shiksas in Miami while the American goyim are sacrificing for his dad’s war. All the meanwhile Trump’s immigration betrayal is sacrificing America’s genetic makeup to prioritize Israel genetic endowment, which is like both Jewish and Latino phalluses up the sphincter of the MAGA base. However, the anti-semitic narrative denies the goyim agency and certainly America’s goy politicians are willing participants in these humiliation rituals.

Tender schlomo Netanyahu mogging the goyim back in 1968

In contrast with Iran, Israel probably has one of the lowest incel rates of any nation. While there are Jewish incels, like there are within all groups, Judaism is the most hostile religion to celibacy and asceticism, followed by Protestant Christianity and Sunni Islam. Thus, Judaism is fundamentally an anti-incel religion, along with Jewish support for feminism, which explains why incels might be drawn to anti-semitism. The virile Rabbi, Shmuley Boteach, author of Kosher Sex for Antisemites, wrote an article about how the enemies of the Jewish people are fundamentally motivated by sexual repression and that anti-semites are sexual deviants because Jews represent healthy sexuality and that Judaism is life affirming.

Link to video

Link to video

Israel has a lot of admirable traits in that it is nationalistic, has high fertility, high social cohesion, an emphasis on physical fitness, and a vitalist warrior culture, yet has room for hedonism, sexual openness, and hot women in skimpy attire, while managing to avoid the trap of decadence. However, Israelis are cucking Americans who are much more deracinated, atomized, less virile, and sexless, despite paying taxes to and sacrificing American blood for Israel’s sexual vitality. So basically, the American people are metaphorically or indirectly performing fellatio, cunnilingus, and analingus on the Israelis.

While a super Aryan looking goy Chad can get laid in Israel, Israel is not a super easy place to get laid for your typical terminally online goy American nerd or out of shape goy chud with a bear belly. Thus, most American men get no direct erotic benefit in supporting Israel. Terminally online goys watch videos of IDF women on Twitter and TikTok, which are used as propaganda for Israel while not being able to touch, taste, or partake in these beautiful Jewesses. Thus, they fetishize Israelis as a more virile race.

Israel has some of the hottest women of any nationality. Just like how the hotter Iranian women tend to be more anti-regime, this grants Israel legitimacy and esoteric power over the goyim. Thus, anti-semites lack the phallic virility to be able to successfully frame Israel as a parasites. Anti-semites viewing Israel as a Jewish supremacist nation, even if there is truth to that, is fundamentally a form of BDSM/femdom. American goy men would sacrifice a limb to lick clean the sweaty, filthy vaginas and anuses of IDF women, as a way to consume their magical kosher dna. When an Israeli female ass is upon the goy’s face, he looses any will to fight and submits to Zion. If there was any justice, the US would grant refugee status to any IDF woman who is willing to desert the military, so they can come here and femdom the goyim.

Despite Americans being sexually frustrated and atomized, to the rest of the world, America symbolizes global Chad who moggs and cucks them, and Trump is perfect as that oafish macho bully, power top, dom daddy archetype. Even if America is the global superpower, America’s wars make American men feel like emasculated cucks and not like victors, which explains the arm chair warriors or those terminally online who view war as porn or a video game. I still have some sympathy toward nationalism because people generally do better when their broader ethnic group or nation are thriving. However, I also get the incel argument that nationalism is a cope, as low status males are disposable to their nation, especially in wars.

Wars have historically been a way to deal with excess low status males but America has been stable enough, that it has not had to do this. Both Ukraine and Russia “recruit down,” starting with middle aged childless men, thus Putin is also an enemy of incels, so Western incels should stop simping for him. The decadent Gulf Arab elites have supported jihad as a safety valve to deal with low status males. Basically, export incel rage to other countries. Muslim migrant men in Europe who have a chance with European women are more likely to submit to liberalism, hedonism, and materialism. In contrast, radical Islam in Europe is primarily driven by incel rage. This increasingly mirrors the segment of young American men who can’t get laid, so they have zero reason to co-operate with society and not be nazis. However, American elites lack the political capital to use a draft to cull excess low status males.

American society has been able to placate low status males with weed, pills, porn, and gaming, despite soaring economic and sexual inequality, which shows that Americans lack virility and are basically eunuchs. Unlike the Iranians, Americans are a spoiled decadent people who need quick dopamine hits, thus can’t tolerate the extended discomfort that comes from a drawn out war. That angry young male energy that Trump lost has nowhere to go for the time being, so you just see all this nihilistic craziness online, so basically masturbation. There is also a vitalist case that since America is spiritually castrated, war can reinvigorate us, but I have not really noticed that with past wars, nor do I see America being able to successfully channel that suppressed male sexual energy into war.

If the economy really tanks from the war, America may have a revolution but it will more likely be a leftist revolution, if leftists can prove that they have more phallic virility than MAGA. Since a lot of female economic and social privilege were bolstered during the era of low interest rates and financial bubbles, Trump crashing the economy might be his one gift to sexually frustrated American men, though there will be a lot of suffering across the board.

The 911 hijackers attacked the World Trade Center because it was a massive phallus that symbolized America’s virility and mogging of the Muslim world. In turn, Iran is striking Dubai’s phallic skyscrapers, which were ironically initially built as a way for Arabs to dick mogg the West. Rockets and drones are also metaphorical phalluses, spewing semen upon the adversary, as a form of sexual dominance, but instead of fertilizing with sperm, they end the other side’s genetic line. Thus, the opposing sides sending rockets and drones in a war is a dick mogging competition. Since America is losing its virility as a declining empire, this war is a dick flex.

There is powerful symbolism in Iran striking Dubai, beyond just the phallic towers, in how Dubai is a modern day Sodom and Gomorrah, that will go down as a historic event. For instance, Dubai is known for its degeneracy, such as “Dubai Porta Potty,” in which wealthy Arab sheiks defecate on influencers, which Iran can say they put an end to. Since Tel Aviv also symbolizes debauchery and glamour, Iran attacking it is analogous to the incel killer, Elliot Rodger, targeting Isla Vista because of what it symbolized to him. Not to mention that if the Epstein blackmail angle is legit, then this is a war purely for sexual perversion, hence leftists like Kyle Kulinski are calling it the Epstein war.

Just when it seemed that some black swan event was going to take down the economy and society, things returned back to normal. As the meme goes, “nothing ever happens.” At first covid seemed apocalyptic and the economy totally shut down but then it became the mundane new normal that just exacerbated existing negative social trends like social isolation. The Fed’s stimulus propped up the economy with a booming stock market, albeit with some inflationary impacts and increased income inequality. There were bank failures, such as Silicon Valley Bank, which many anticipated would be another 2008 financial crisis, but that turned out to be a nothing burger after the Fed bailed out the banks.

The Ukraine war also seemed to be a black swan event that was going to cause massive food and energy shortages and crash the global economy. While the Ukraine war did not crash the US economy, it did further increase inflation and caused food shortages in the poorest nations. However, inflation came down somewhat toward the end of Biden’s term combined with GDP growth, which was hailed as a great economy. While the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea, as a response to Israel’s war in Gaza, also increased inflation somewhat, it did not crash the economy. Even Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs initially were about to crash the stock market, but he went TACO and markets recovered, albeit with some modest inflation from the tariffs that he maintained. The tariffs are now pretty irrelevant compared to the supply shock from the Iran war.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the nightmare scenario that economists and geopolitical strategists have warned about for a long time, is now a reality. Thus, this time might be different than those others which maybe weren’t as bad as anticipated. Since 20% of the World’s oil supply, at 20 million barrels of crude per day, and also about 20% of natural gas come through the Strait, that production cut is historically unparalleled and is going to cause massive energy price increases. The oil lost from Iraq alone is greater than the feared loss from Russian oil during the Ukraine war. Thus, the inflationary surge will be more reminiscent of the 1970s energy crisis than what we experienced after covid and the Ukraine war. Even during the 1979 energy crisis, there was only a 7% decline in oil supply which was offset by increased OPEC production, thus this is the largest oil shock in history. The current situation is also far worse, at 3 times bigger, than the 1973 Arab oil embargo crisis. This is factoring in that inflationary effects of the six month long OPEC oil embargo lingered throughout the rest of the 70s.

The Strait of Hormuz may not be re-opened for months, as the US navy can’t adequately defend against Iranian drones, even if Iran’s ballistic missiles get taken out. U.S. intelligence has seen indications that Iran is deploying naval mines in the Strait which could take months to remove. If Iran is able to keep the Strait closed for a month, we could see oil at $150, which would immediately trigger a global recession. If the Strait is closed for longer than a month and oil reaches $200, it would send markets crashing, reminiscent of 1929. However, even at $120 a barrel, the economy starts to grind to a halt. Because of the hard limits on storage capacity in the Gulf, they will have to shut down refineries and production altogether. Not to mention that destroyed Gulf refineries and oil infrastructure will take a long time to rebuild. However, you also have to factor in that today’s economy is less dependent on oil than in the 70s.

While the US is somewhat energy independent, the US is not totally out of the water on gas prices, as like Biden after the Ukraine war, Trump failed to refill the strategic petroleum reserves. Oil prices are continuing to rise, despite the announcement about releasing oil from the reserves. The US energy secretary said that the US navy escorted a ship through the Strait and then oil dropped instantly, but he then deleted the post, which shows how desperate the Trump admin is. Trump even urged oil tankers to show some guts and go through the Strait anyway, with no guarantee of safety. Cheap gas was one of Trump’s few economic successes and now that is out the window.

While oil shortages are getting the most attention, the Gulf region is an even bigger share of exports for certain crucial chemicals. 92% of the world’s sulfur comes from refining oil and gas which manufacturing is totally dependent upon. Taiwan which produces about 90% of the world’s advanced chips is heavily dependent on the Gulf for helium and energy. As for food shortages, 50% of global exports of urea, which is a substance used in fertilizer, come from the Gulf. 33% of global nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait, which is far more than was limited through the Black Sea during the Ukraine War. Not to mention that the timing is perfect with Spring planting season.

Since half of all humans are alive because of this synthetic nitrogen, expect an apocalyptic famine in the global South, which will add to the already massive migrant wave into Europe from the war. However, it is not just the fertilizer shortage but about half the costs of food production are energy costs. While America won’t see a famine, food shortages or at least rising food prices are likely. Not to mention that as the US and Israel attack Iran’s desalination plants that Iran is only 3% dependent on desalination while US allies in the Gulf and Israel are at 40-90%.

While the US may be energy independent enough to weather the closure of the Strait, both Europe and Asia receive the bulk of their oil from the Gulf. Russia may halt oil supply to Europe to supply Asia instead as revenge for supporting Ukraine, so Europe is totally screwed. For instance, Britain has just two days of gas stored up. Not to mention that the energy shocks and food shortages will collapse nations like during the Arab Spring, which could trigger further conflicts and revolutions, creating further economic turmoil way beyond the war escalation.

If oil shortages crash Europe and Asia’s economies, then there will be a massive sell off in US treasury bonds. This will be a combination of adversaries like China using the crisis to economically punish the US but also possibly former allies in Europe and Asia who are angry with us for screwing them over. Even a staunch US ally like Japan, which owns the most US bonds, will have no choice but to sell off bonds to try to save their own currency and economy. The US is relocating the THAAD and Patriot defense systems from South Korea to the Gulf, which means that South Korea and other East Asian allies will be vulnerable. This will further collapse their economies, which were hailed as the economies of the future, giving them further reasons to cut off economic and geopolitical ties with the US.

The main nightmare scenario for America is that the Gulf States get so fed up with America that they end the petrodollar, which is an agreement for the Gulf Arabs to sell oil in dollars. This would almost guarantee a depression and collapse the dollar. The Gulf Arabs are already looking to de-invest from the US, in retaliation for provoking Iran and then failing to protect them. BlackRock and Blue Owl are already facing a credit crisis, and if Gulf investors pull back, it could trigger a massive financial crises. There is a lot of Gulf investment in AI and the AI bubble is the only thing propping up the US economy. Thus, the Gulf Arabs pulling back investments could also be what ends up crashing the US economy.

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While I was against the Venezuela invasion, I admit it was a relative success. However, this made Trump cocky enough to assume that the Iran war will be a walk in the park. Netanyahu either gave Trump faulty intelligence or told him that it would be easy and Trump, who lacks thoughtfulness, went a long with it. Trump’s preferred decorum for war is a quick attack and then pulling out to use as a negotiating tactic, like the attack on Iran last year. Iran actually offered Trump a good deal in Oman, as far as suspending their nuclear program, that was much better from an American standpoint than even Obama’s Iran deal. Thus, Trump could have just taken that deal as a major political win and salvaged his legacy.

I don’t think Trump necessarily desires a long drawn out war like Iraq and Afghanistan, so either he is paying back the Israel Lobby/Adelsons for his re-election campaign or he is being blackmailed by Israel over the Epstein files. The Israel Lobby is desperate for Trump to act now as their influence will likely decline in the future, as the younger generation of American voters are less pro-Israel and pro-war. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio blatantly admitted that the war is for Israel, which is amazing how what was once considered an anti-semitic canard is totally normalized to talk about, even among normie democrats.

Israel had some justification to retaliate against Hamas for the October 7th terror attack, though they went far beyond a proportional response and have committed war crimes in Gaza. There wasn’t any strong evidence that Iran was directly involved in planning October 7th other than Iran funding Hamas. This attack on Iran is an act of aggression, as Iran has been so weakened that they posed less of a threat to Israel and basically no threat whatsoever to the US. Regardless, Netanyahu has desired war with Iran for the last 40 years, thus he saw a weakened Iran as the chance to strike.

The Iranian regime is backward, oppressive, and is holding back the Iranian people from reaching their full potential. Thus, idealistically a strong secular nationalist Iran would be great and could be a force in countering Islamism. However, Iran has geopolitical influence from its alliances with Shia Arabs and a secular nationalist pan-Iranian sphere would lose those alliances and instead must look to pan-Iranian peoples like the Tajiks in Central Asia. Regardless, I am extremely pessimistic about that outcome. Regime change requires boots on the ground and there are neither the resources nor the political appetitive for that, so it will just be air strikes that will either lead to a civil war and or Iran becoming a failed state like Syria and Libya.

Israel has been carpet bombing Tehran, much like Gaza, which is a secular cosmopolitan stronghold against the regime. I’ve even heard reports that Israel is especially targeting the most anti-regime neighborhoods of Tehran from mostly leftist sources like Kyle Kulinski. I’ve also heard allegations from leftists that Israel is taking out all the leftist opposition leaders, because they don’t want a hypothetical new regime to be leftist. Regardless, a lot of the pro-Western anti-regime Iranians may turn against America and Israel if they lose a lot of their loved ones in the strikes. Basically, invasions have a rally around the flag effect rather than garner sympathy for the invader.

It looks like America and Israel are backing the minority separatists like the Kurds, Azeris and Balochis while abandoning secular Persian nationalist opposition because they better serve the purpose of destabalizing Iran. The US is trying to provoke Iran into launching a ground invasion into Iraqi Kurdistan and then attacking them. Secular Persian nationalists, including Reza Pahlavi, insist upon Iran’s territorial integrity and the Shah himself persecuted Kurdish separatists, so this is a massive betrayal against them on Trump and Israel’s part. This also nullifies the argument for regime change that a lot of Iranians desire secularism that was not the case for Iraq, which broke down into religious sectarianism.

While the dissident/populist/anti-war sphere tend to view the Shah as a US puppet, I’ve heard another plausible theory that the West allowed the Shah to fall or even fomented the revolution, because they didn’t want Iran as a powerful independent geopolitical player. For this reason, the US, Israel, and the Gulf Arabs may not support an Iran that is free, prosperous, and secular, but also geopolitically influential in the region. Israel in particular wants Iran to be a failed state so that it can no longer challenge their hegemony in the region.

Most people are ignorant about the Sunni vs Shia split among Islam and American conservatives often view the West and Israel as having the same interests in opposing radical Islam. However, Israelis are much more anti-Shia while Sunnis pose a greater threat to Europe and seek a new Caliphate. What is important to emphasize is that the Shia sphere or Axis of Resistance mostly attacked Israel alongside the Sunnis while Sunni extremists are part of this global jihad that threatens the West. Iran has also protected Christians in Syria from Jihadis and in Armenia from Israel’s ally, Azerbaijan, whom Christian Zionists like Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz couldn't care less about. Not to mention that Shias are more tolerant of pagan pre-Islamic influence than Sunni fundamentalist. Thus, there is an argument in favor of Iran in that they counter the threat of Sunni Islam, such as the Iran backed Assad regime and various Shia militias killing a lot of Gulf Arab backed salafist jihadis in the Syrian civil war. In contrast, Israel and the West baked these Salafist rebels and even Trump granted support and legitimacy to the new Al Qaeda regime in Syria.

During the Yom Kippur and Six Day War, Israel fought off the major Sunni Arab nations while was allied with Iran under the Shah. Persia was also historically much more tolerant towards Jews than both Europe and the Arab world. Thus, Israel allying with Sunnis against Shias is a more recent shift, as Iran has backed Hamas to gain geopolitical leverage. While the Abraham Accords were touted as Trump’s great geopolitical accomplishment, it greatly strengthened the Saudi/Gulf Arab/Wahhabi sphere while causing Iran and the Palestinians to get more desperate, which contributed to Hamas attacking Israel. Basically, Israel formed an alliance with Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Iran. While the argument for Iran is that they are a counter balance to the Gulf Arabs, the big irony is that the war backfired on the Gulf Arabs, who may end up being one of the biggest losers of the war and feel betrayed by the US and Israel. Initially it appeared that Israel wiping out Hezbollah plus the fall of the Assad regime in Syria was going to create a huge power vacuum that could empower the Sunnis.

However, the Gulf Arab regimes are not a politically monolith. While my view of Saudi Arabia is generally negative, in his defense, Mohammed bin Salman has cut back on Islamist funding into Europe, which Saudi Arabia has been culpable of in the past. Today, Qatar is the biggest financier of Islamism in Europe, which is why it is hypocritical that the likes of Tucker Carlson simp so hard for Qatar as a counter balance to Israel. Qatar is actually the enemy of both Israel and Europe. The Saudis are more ruthless pragmatists who primarily value their wealth and geopolitical power while the Qataris are more committed to spreading political Islam, though used to be allied with Iran, but were attacked by Iran recently. While the UAE publicly opposes Islamism, they are responsibility for causing a lot of regional instability in hopes that they can create some vassal states in Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. The UAE is run on slave labor, is a hub for money laundering and human trafficking, is responsible for a catastrophic civil war in the Sudan, along with being associated with crass materialism, so there is a lot of schadenfreude about Dubai being hit by Iran. However, ordinary people and migrant laborers will suffer the most while parasitic elites will flee on their private jets.

While I predict that Turkey will either stay neutral or just manage the Kurdish separatists, Turkey taking a side is a major wildcard. The US is trying to goad Azerbaijan to attack Iran because if Iran invades Azerbaijan then Turkey will have to fight Iran, as Azerbaijan is a pan-Turkic ally. Also, Turkey and Azerbaijan may use this war to try to destroy Armenia. There is also a very slight chance that Turkey allies with Iran against the Kurds but also to prove that they are a new hegemon that can stand up against Israel. I predict that after this war, Turkey will emerge as the regional hegemon, with Iran a failed state and the Gulf Arabs and possibly Israel devastated as well. This bodes bad for Europe, as Turkey has Neo-Ottoman ambitions. As for a proxy war against Russia and China, on one hand Russia and China hope that America gets bogged down in Iran, and thus weakened. On the other hand, while Russia is a winner from the prices of oil surging, China could be greatly economically harmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the one geopolitical benefit from a US standpoint.

Ideally there would be an alliance of the more advanced White adjacent peoples of the Fertile Crescent, including Israel, Lebanese Christians, Alawites in Syria, Iran, and perhaps Kemalist in Turkey and Berber nationalists in the Maghreb to prevent a potential Sunni Arab Caliphate, but realistically that will never happen. You have the normie right that supports Israel as a beacon of Western civilization while the dissident right, from White nationalists to isolationist paleocons, have some sympathy toward Iran, both as a bulwark against “Jewish Supremacy” but also a notion that Persians are cousins to Europeans. While Israelis and Persians are not Europeans, they are both White adjacent or cousins to Whites. In contrast, the Gulf Arabs are cultural and racial aliens to the West. Ashkenazi Jews are a Levantine/Euro hybrid and Iranians, while also mixed, have some ancient Indo Aryan ancestry. Also, Farsi, unlike Hebrew, is an Indo European language. Obviously, Iranians are much racially closer to Europeans than Gulf Arabs or South Asians, and even a lot of the regime leadership could pass as White. Despite Ashkenazi Jews not being a majority of Israelis, they are much closer to the modern West while the Iran Aryan connection is more ancient and esoteric, so I also get the support for Israel. Not to mention that it is generally the more secular cosmopolitan White passing Iranians who have traditionally been more philo-semitic.

Both the Arabs and Turks have a long history of attacking and invading Europe but Iran has not, unless you want to go back to the war between ancient Persians and the Byzantine Empire. The Persian Safavids helped save Europe by weakening the Ottoman Turks at a crucial point before the siege of Vienna. Iran did help the Bosnians somewhat during the Yugoslav civil war, but even then, Bosnians are native European Muslims and not alien invaders. You could make an argument that Iran is anti-White because their drones killed White Ukrainians, but that is more on Russia. This is not to say that Iran’s regime is pro-White as its media engages in the same third wordlist propaganda against the West as Qatari Al Jazeera. Rather, the war detracts from fighting against the enemies of Whites and the West. While Iran’s regime is an enemy of Israel and oppresses its own people, it still ranks low on major enemies of White Americans and Europeans.

Despite Persians being more compatible with the West than Arabs, South Asians, or let alone Africans, this potential refugee wave into Europe could be so cataclysmic as to dwarf the Merkel wave of 2015. Iran has over 90 million people and an expected 20 million refugees could reach Europe, in contrast with Syria which only has about 20 million people and the 2015 migrant wave was only about 5 million people. This will either totally destabilize Europe or create an ultra nationalist backlash. Not to mention all the other de-stabilized countries. For instance, Israel is ethnically cleaning South Lebanon’s Shias, who when pushed north, could incite another Lebanese civil war, which will add to the refugee crises. A massive refugee crises from a war for Israel into Europe is the best way to increase anti-semitism and Islamophobia simultaneously.

Every political group in America simps for or supports some group in the Middle East as a proxy for their ideology or tribe. For instance, leftists support the Palestinians, the Alt-Right supports the Christians and supported Assad and Iran to some degree, the Evangelicals, neocons, and boomer cons support Israel, and libertarian crypto bros think they are Emirati. While in the past, I might have been somewhat sympathetic to Iran and Syria under Assad, my current stance is that we should stay out of the Middle East and that Europe should take a harsh stance toward Muslim immigration and have zero tolerance toward Salafist Islam or any crime committed by Muslim immigrants and their descendants against native Europeans.

Besides Trump losing any populist or anti-establishment cred, a major reason to oppose the war is that it squanders precious political capital. For instance, Trump has only three years to accomplish anything on immigration and this war detracts from that. If the war is a colossal failure and crashes the American economy, it will greatly strengthen the Left while leaving the populist right totally demoralized, and White Americans in a much worse predicament than if Trump were not re-elected. It is such a massive betrayal of Trump’s original base and campaign message. Not to mention the total lack of strategic planning on the part of Trump and the Pentagon, nor are they articulating justification for the war to the American people who overwhelmingly oppose the war.

The rightwing is so low status that they are desperate to claim any celeb as one of theirs even among people who are actually liberals. Conservatives were saying that gold medalist figure skater, Alysa Liu, was conservative because she got rid of the pronouns on her bio. She is probably a normie moderate liberal who is not overly obsessed with politics which is the norm for pretty college girls rather than a radical leftist or antifa. Basically, she is not overtly anti-American like Colin Kaepernick which codes as right because of how far the Overton Window moved to the left.

source: @centristpeater on X

source: @SouthernKeeks on X

source: @SeverusChud on X

Obsessing over her political views is irrelevant and autistic, rather it is what she symbolizes aesthetically and her vibes that matter. Since she seems like a sweet person, a lot of young men assume all young women are bitches, so they will simp hard for any woman who seems remotely nice. There is something about her facial expressions that are so full of life while a lot of zoomettes are cold and expressionless from being raised on iPhones.

source: @bizlet7 on X

source: @Anarseldain on X

Alysa Liu’s dad is a refugee who fled as a dissident from communist China, so she is being contrasted with Eileen Gu, who is also a Eurasian from the San Francisco Bay Area and around the same age, who turned against America to skate for China. Alysa Liu symbolizes the strength of principles based American civic nationalism triumphing over ancestry while Eileen Gu symbolizes the counter argument that blood and lineage are stronger than one’s paperwork or where they were born. Gu also represents elite privilege while Liu the middle class striver. For instance, Gu grew up in the ultra wealthy San Francisco neighborhood of Sea Cliff and attended Stanford while Liu grew up in the ghetto of Richmond where she experienced racism from BIPOC.

source: @centristpeater on X

source: @basedalexandoor on X

source: @zhao_dashuai on X

America’s Civic nationalism or civil religion needs a heroic narrative and an aesthetic, thus it can’t just be about being loyal to an economic zone and consumerism. Alysa fulfills that heroic narrative of overcoming obstacles to achieve the American dream. Her and her family are exceptional Americans, perhaps not fitting the heritage American ideal, but under the civic nationalist meritocratic script that normies embrace. In contrast with the anti-American demoralization of the 1619 Project, on the center left there is this type of multi-racial civic nationalism based on a new American exceptionalism and optimism. They still condemn the old America as racist but just that America is exceptional in that we can overcome our dark past. I see moderate liberals pushing this more now after the failure of wokeness, despite the dark woke meme.

source: @devahaz on X

source: @TheLaurenChen on X

Alysa as the daughter of a refuge offers a positive counter image to the dark skinned military aged men at the border and migrant boats invading Europe, thus is effective at selling liberalism and immigration to White America. I remember around Y2k when Time Magazine had a feature about what a racially blended future would look like, but it backfired, as the conceptual future Americans ended up looking ugly. In contrast, Alysa’s charm and beauty make a future racially blended America palatable to White men. Of non-Whites and mixed people, Eurasians are the most palatable to Whites and even nazis love Hapa women.

Disclaimer: This is satire

When liberals say that diversity is our strength, the subliminal message is that genetic diversity is our strength, thus it is not blank slatist egalitarianism, which is the secret. Alysa not only won America a gold medal but her genetics did, much like how Black athletic prowess and Black pop culture is used to sell America’s cultural hegemony and soft power, which a lot of White nationalists are uncomfortable admitting has had some degree of success. Sports commentator, Jimmy The Greek, got canceled back in the 80s for saying that Blacks were bred for physical strength during slavery, which is true. While Asians are overall not particular known for their athleticism, there has been a lot of Asian/Asian American figure skating champions going back to Michelle Kwan.

There is ironically an HBD argument for a genetically or racially diverse society, as homogenous societies can struggle to fill certain economic niches. For instance, Uganda lost a lot of its doctors and other professionals when Idi Amin expelled all the Indians and Japan has a problem with high iq people who do menial jobs becoming totally demoralized. A lot of the ag jobs that illegals do may actually be best suited for them until automation, as I don’t think either ghetto Blacks or unemployed White NEETs would be suited for those jobs. I could see castizos (White Latino mixes) being selected as a marshal caste of military and law enforcement. We can debate the negative impacts of Jewish political influence but it is undeniable that America has benefited from its Jewish geniuses, such as Oppenheimer inventing the nuclear bomb, which helped America win WWII. There is a case for brain draining China of its AI talent. Basically, utilize Chinese genetics for Americanism to triumph over China, even if the trade off is we change the ethnic make up of our elite and displace White Americans from those positions.

While America’s past civic nationalism revolved around a White core with noblesse oblige toward Blacks and Native Americans, this new civic nationalism will be a lot less egalitarian. Basically, we take in the genetics from all over the Globe but then let the strongest rise to the top and the weakest sink. The White Nationalist right hedges that a future multiracial America will fall apart, but that is not guaranteed. This is not necessarily my preference, as I prefer ethnopluralism in which different groups of people can coexist separately with their own enclaves and institutions, so more of a mosaic rather than a melting pot.

source: @thedimitri on X

source: @Linahuaa on X

There is this cosmopolitan eugenically selected global overclass, which Eileen Gu represents more, that is not attached to any nation but that does not mean they are liberal in the true sense either. Hapas are emerging as a distinct caste or ethnogenesis that I could see starting to view themselves as a distinct ethnicity which already is the case in Hawaii. Hapas are a caste primarily linked to the upper middle class though there are a lot of hapas among new money tech elites like Mark Zuckerberg’s family. Hapas are further subdivided among a caste system where you have elite hapas, in which wealthy Chads marry Asian models, and then you have artsy hipster hapas, the STEM nerd hapas, and then the working class White guys with Filipino mail order brides. However, I think Alysa Liu being from a middle class coded background is a lot cuter and more feminine than the upper class coded Eileen Gu who looks like a cyborg, which is really causing me confusion about my narratives about beauty and class dynamics. While the wealthy are on average more attractive, there is something wholesome about a cute girl from a middle class coded background.

While Hapas often have good genetics, such as being attractive and high IQ, they suffer from an identity crisis. The Hapa and other subsets of mixed race people are the rootless deracinated cosmopolitan who doesn’t fully fit in, thus is susceptible to liberalism, which explains why a lot of Hapa women are woke. Then you have liberal White guys with Asian girlfriends or wives who refuse to acknowledge that they have a preference for Asians because having a preference is anti-liberal, as it goes against colorblindness and egalitarianism. My friend puts forth an ideology, Asian Aryanism, which is an identity politics for uniting Whites and Asians to find meaning and beauty from the deracination and decay of civilization. Basically, Pilleater wants to liberate the Hapa and White-Asian couples from the emptiness of neoliberalism by granting them an identity.

source: @realpilleater on X

source: @MiladyBonkle on X

While I get the appeal of full Asians, I find them too genetically distant. However, I do have a thing for Hapas. Hapas have cute neotenous features of Asians but with some caucasian features and White girl body types. When I was like in 6th grade back in the late 90s, my dad took me to Pasadena. I remember seeing a cute Eurasian girl about my age, and I was so enamored by her that I said she was ugly because I could not handle those powerful emotions. Kind of like how you bully your crush when you are young because you find those feelings so confusing. The thing is, I was more obsessed with half Jewish blondes than Hapas but there was something intriguing about her.

source: @AsianDawn4 on X

source: @SplendorEternal on X

There could be some decline in White Asian mixing among zoomers due to balkanization, though Hapas are already a substantial demographic in places like Hawaii and California. Not to mention that mixed race people, especially Hapas, tend to have low birthrates. East Asians also have significantly higher social status now than they did just 20 years ago (economic success and cultural capital of K-pop). For instance, I’ve noticed an increase in White Chads with Asian women as well as more Asian men dating White women while 20 years ago it was just nerdy White guys with Asian women. Asian zoomers are just less subservient to Whites than past generations.

source: @SwanSongPMC on X

While some rightwing White men talk about dominating Asian women as comcumbies and emasculating their men, Pilleater advocates an equal partnership between Whites and Asians, which can be tricky to pull off when there is intersexual competition. For instance, there is a subset of bitter Asian men who want to turn WMAF and AMWF against each other. Having a cute Asian or Latina girlfriend is a bargaining chip that political elites have to get White men on board with liberal multiculturalism. However, as these women become more hypergamous, White incels have no incentive not to be nazis. For instance, the millennial counterparts of these zoomer groypers were nerds with Asian girlfriends who listened to NPR and voted for Obama.

source: @realculture_man on X

Mixed race people of different gender parent pairings also have different personality types and archetypes. For instance, there is a narrative that Hapas with Asian dad’s are more well adjusted than those with White dads (eg. Elliot Rodger) since the bar for Asian men getting with White women is much higher. This is on top of the narrative that Hapa women are more desired than Hapa men. For a White man, the Asian woman represents stability while the DNA of a high IQ White sperg can offset the conformity of Asians which threatens liberalism. An Asian man with a White woman is in some ways overcoming obstacles for his race but in other ways is a winner of the current system.

source: @Steve_Sailer on X

source: @signulll on X

I have no idea if Alysa Liu’s dad was an incel but if he was then having a beautiful talented daughter is a huge white pill and inspiration for all the dejected man out there. The notion that single incel men can produce beautiful daughters is both terrifying or a white pill depending who you ask. There is a eugenic angle to egg donors in which a nerdy guy can buy the egg of a woman who would otherwise reject him sexually. There are a lot of Asian men who make good money in tech but struggle with women, who surrogacy is especially appealing to. There is also a growing trend of wealthy Chinese people using white egg donors to breed Hapas. Will the Chinese breed a fashy super race of Hapa ubermensch that will outnumbers our liberal decadent Hapas? Regardless, there is something very technocratic and stereotypically Chinese about this arrangement that involves no romance or rizz for breeding.

source: @kunley_drukpa on X

source: @RessurecBarbar on X

source: @SlumRNA_Dog on X

I could see the ethical argument that depriving a child of a mother and the confusion about whether the egg donor or surrogate are the real mother could cause trauma. However, there are a lot of men out there with a lot of love to give while the dating and marriage market is so bad, as among zoomers more men than women want to become parents. We have to become more open to unconventional arrangements as traditional paths are closed off to many. In the future, we will probably have artificial wombs which will totally transform society.

Robert Stark speaks with New Zealand based author, Vincent Jamie McLeod of VJM Publishing about his religion, Elementalism, and ideology of alt-centrism. Vincent has a psychology degree from the University of Canterbury, is the author of numerous books including, Elemental Elementalism: The holy scripture of the religion of the Age of Aquarius, and has an upcoming book, The Alternative Centrism Manifesto that deals with issues like health, education, justice, and defense, which will be released in 2 years. Follow Vincent on Twitter.

Topics:
-How the term “massage” is pronounced in New Zealand
-How Vincent got into the occult due to becoming disillusioned with psychology
-How consciousness and the Divine are one and thus perfect
-How the meaning of life is entertaining the Gods and overcoming ignorance
-Near death experiences and Dr. Jeffrey Long’s research
-How NDE’s are similar to DMT trips
-How this world is a downward emanation or dream of the Divine
-How the Elementalist principle of entertaining the Gods overlaps with mainstream morality against unnecessary cruelty
-How Elementalist morality is more subjective than Abrahamic (eg. violence against an invader is morally sanctioned)
-A total rejection of atheist materialism, nihilism, and Abrahamic moral authoritarianism
-How Alt-Centrism is downstream from Elementalism
-Why Vincent rejects the notion that human nature is inherently flawed or sinful
-How the new Alt-Center ideology will have to address AI and automation
-How Alt-centrism fills the vacuum of the flawed existing 5 ideologies of the establishment and dissident lefts and rights, and the establishment center
-How Alt-Centrism takes and rejects aspects from all these ideologies (eg. establishment center is right about finding peace over endless conflict)
-How leftists operate under Abrahamic moral authoritarianism
-How to find balance between order, which leads to authoritarianism, and libertinism which leads to degeneracy
-Vincent’s support for Plato’s ideal of the philosopher king with support from the warrior caste while merchants and proles should be kept out of politics
-In contrast with hyper masculine Alt-Right and feminine Left, the Alt-Center supports an embrace of all gender archetypes
-How the Alt-Right is correct in its critique of the current system but comes short at offering solutions
-How the entire racial dichotomy from extreme ethnocentrism of right, colorblindness of center, and wokeness of left have failed
-How a proper approach to race starts with acknowledging observable realities
-Why k-selected peoples are more appreciative of beauty over utilitarianism
-Contrasting the Theosophical and Elementalist spiritual approach with the more materialist approach of human bio diversity
-Why politics exists because God dreams up everything as entertainment, which is what people want from politics
-How our low trust society is caused by materialism and rejecting the spiritual
-How pure consciousness is bliss and depression and anxiety can come from identifying with the physical
-How psychedelics introduced Vincent to spirituality
-How Elementalism is similar and different from Robert’s new religion of Cosmoplatonism

On the surface, the Epstein leaks vindicate QAnon, as far as exposing elite child trafficking cabals. There are reports of torture, murder, cannibalism, and of secret underground tunnels and trap doors underneath Jeffrey Epstein’s properties that are straight out of a horror film. It appears that the Epstein network killed a lot of the girls, more so the foreign girls, so there would be no witnesses. Why did Epstein purchase gallons of sulfuric acid? Even the euphemism “pizza” was frequently used throughout the leaked emails. Beyond being a honey trapper for intelligence, Epstein likely played a crucial role in geopolitics, such as helping to orchestrate the Abraham accords. Not to mention that the leaks revealed that Epstein was likely murdered in jail.

I moved away from conspiracy theories, for both principled and optics reasons, such as wanting to be taken more seriously. However, some of my earlier conspiratorial views now appear to be true. I never had much regard for QAnon, but I was an Alex Jones fan in the late 00s. However, QAnon was wrong about elites and the Left normalizing pedophilia, as that would remove blackmail powers, and were wrong that it was just Democrat elites, as Trump’s name is all over the leaks. Not to mention that Qtards had some really low IQ hokey theories, such as about Comet Pizza and whacky nonsense about shape shifting lizard people. While the reality is dark enough as it is, I doubt that the leak of Bush Sr. killing and eating babies is true, as it is so over the top outlandish.

Since many of the files may be false, as they are just tips anonymously summited to the FBI, there is no way to confirm total accuracy. However, the chances that at least a portion of the worst allegations against Trump are true is very high, no matter how hard Trump shills try to spin it, as many of them are from sworn witness testimony. Steve Bannon, Elon Musk, and Howard Lutnick’s names are also in the files. The leaks revealed that federal prosecutor, Alex Acosta, who latter became Trump’s labor secretary, granted Epstein a sweetheart deal because he was an intelligence asset. Not to mention that FBI director, Kash Patel, blatantly perjured himself about there being no co-conspirators. You also have to ask why was Breitbart under Bannon pushing all this QAnon type stuff, considering Bannon’s ties to Epstein? Was the Pizzagate bullshit a ruse to distract from Epstein?

What is so bizarre is that leftists, like Kyle Kulinski, now sound like QAnon while Alex Jones, who was talking about this kind of stuff for a quarter century is ironically white washing any Trump connections. It is really pathetic how MAGA is making it all about Bill Gates and Bill Clinton. Also, why are so many names redacted by Trump’s Justice Department, including some really depraved emails? Networks like Epstein’s are still in existence and Trump’s Justice Department isn’t doing shit about it. I predict that Trump’s Justice Department will crack down more on regular sex offenders to detract from the Epstein ties. Regardless, Trump was stupid to make releasing the Epstein files a campaign issue when he knew he was in it.

Obviously, Trump’s name in the leaks is bad for Trump and the GOP and will only accelerate the massive blue wave in midterms. If Democrats are smart, they will try to associate Trump with the Epstein class, though I am actually surprised by how tepid a lot of Democrats are. For Democrats, Bill Clinton is their past, while Republicans have to defend Trump, giving Democrats a political advantage of distancing themselves from Epstein. However, neither party has any moral high ground, as Epstein was close to major Dem donors like Reid Hoffman. Biden did not release the Epstein files, even if it would have prevented Trump from being re-elected. It was because protecting certain elite and deep state interests supersedes partisan politics.

In a just society, there would be trials or tribunals for the Epstein perpetrators and accomplices, but that almost comes across as performative to say, even if it is cathartic. Unfortunately, the perpetrators will probably not be brought to justice, considering how corrupt this country is. However, the Epstein files are taking down figures in Europe’s political class. It is also a cope that the leaks will lead to some revolution against the elites. Populists have this naive hope that one event or revelation can take down the entire system, but that isn’t how power works. Regardless, it will lead to lower trust in government, elites, and institutions, which have already greatly diminished. The evidence that elites are totally above the law and basic moral standards shatters any illusion of democracy. However, people can gradually get conditioned to shocking things, like the boiling frog.

What I fear is that the establishment manages to save face when Democrats take back power and pin it entirely on the Right, while maintaining legitimacy for the system. There might even be arrests of some of the perps, as a way to make it appear everything is fine, so that we can go back to business as usual. It could very well empower Democrats and the Left rather than anti-establishment populism. For instance, the Left can point out Bannon’s ties to Epstein to associate Epstein with MAGA, as well as Epstein’s ties to the Alt-Right.

Epstein met with the founder of 4Chan, Christopher Poole, right before he created Pol/chan, so it is speculated that Pol, which was the foundation of what became the alt-right, was Epstein’s idea. Some on the Left are speculating that by Epstein creating a more nihilistic Right, it would turn a blind eye to his crimes, but that negates the blackmail angle. Alt-right figure, Jean Francois Gariépy, who is a Twitter moot of mine, was reveled to have received money from Epstein, which he has been open and transparent about. The leaks also revealed that Epstein was interested in race science and eugenics, which ironically a lot of political dissidents are too.

So either the elites are divided on issues like race/eugenics or they are secretly racial supremacists (White or Jewish supremacists), and anti-racism/wokeness is intended to keep middle class Whites in line. Perhaps a segment of elites are eugenicists, like Alex Jones used to claim, while another segment are for the great replacement like the alt-right claims. Epstein ridiculing Bill Gates’s charity for Africa as a Catholic view that all life is equal shows these inter-elite philosophical divides. In contrast, Epstein wanted to cull the poor.

Perhaps elites are just so isolated from society’s slave moralities, which includes anti-racism. Basically, there is slave morality for the middle class while a “do as thou wilt” mentality for the elites. It is not so much that dissidents who are racialist and eugenicists are controlled opposition, a conspiracy theory pushed by leftists, but rather there is this horseshoe where both dissidents and elites are removed from bourgeoisie morality. It is a low in openness retarded position to say that because someone is evil, therefore the opposite of all their stances is good, much like how the West embraced replacement migration and political correctness as the opposite of Hitler. Regardless, it will be used to push leftism by equating race science and eugenics with the worst evil.

Epstein hinted that he desired chaos in the World, so that oligarchs can come in and scoop up assets. Basically, Epstein was an accelerationist, a position that a lot of dissidents share. Embracing accelerationism is like spinning the dice, where elites have the upper hand, but there is desperation for the chance that their system could come crashing down. Some of Epstein’s positions echo NeoReaction, which makes sense considering his correspondence with Peter Thiel about chaos and tribalism regarding Brexit. There are two factions of elites, oligarchs who desire chaos, so they can come in and loot resources and consolidate wealth and power, which is the faction that favors Trump. The other faction is the managerial elite who favor salability and maintaining the status quo, who favor Democrats. However, Epstein had links to both these elite classes.

The leaks also hint at a secret eugenics breeding program that involved Epstein impregnating women and girls at his New Mexico ranch. Epstein had this beauty supremacist, lookist, and racist worldview in which White gentile females were to be exploited for their beauty while non-Whites, especially Blacks, were to be dehumanized for not being desirable to him. This brings up the question of whether there is something inherently unethical to eugenics or did Epstein’s evil come from commodifying people rather than beauty as a virtue in itself. I don’t intend to downplay the human suffering, but if he was actually killing beautiful girls or defiling them by repulsive old ugly men then that is antithetical to any eugenic ideal and is pure evil.

The Epstein leaks will further increase anti-semitism, as they read like the worst of anti-semitic conspiracy theories and tropes which unfortunately may be true. For instance, Epstein being a blatant Jewish supremacist, the age old canard of Jews as pedos and white slavers, and the Mossad blackmail angle. The Nazis alleged that Jews were behaving like Epstein during the Weimar era. Epstein would supply mostly Russian underaged girls to Gulf Arabs, primarily Emirati elites, in order to blackmail them into supporting Israel. Thus, the Abraham Accords should be renamed the Epstein accords. Epstein was basically an intelligence operative to blackmail politicians and elites, primarily for Israel’s Mossad but also CIA, and possibly Russian intelligence. Netanyahu is trying to spin it like Epstein was just affiliated with the liberal opposition because of Ehud Barak. However, like with America, the partisan angle distracts from the intelligence connections, and Netanyahu’s name is in the leaks too.

While, there is a dark underbelly to the Jewish elite and Israel, your upper middle class Jewish dentist had no ties to Epstein while White gentile and Arab elites did. Jean Luc Brunel, Peter Nygard, and Prince Andrew were certainly not Jewish. Not to mention that Epstein was trying to target Israeli kibbutzim for girls, which shows that this elite criminal class is willing to prey upon ordinary Jews besides goyim.

My degree of separation to Epstein, besides being a Twitter moot with JF is that I interviewed Jeffrey Mishlove, who interviewed Steven Pinker (this was long before associations with Epstein were known) who in turn was close with Epstein. Epstein had ties to Thiel and I’ve met people associated with the Thiel network via Curtis Yarvin at various parties in LA. My half-Jewish great grandfather, was an artist who had ties to old Hollywood, was accused of Epstein type activities and was a suspect in the gruesome Black Dahlia murders, as he was a friend of George Hodel. If I become a public figure, anti-semitic conspiracy theorists will use that against me. My point is that these loose affiliations and degrees of association are how conspiracy theories form.

Figures on the Right like Andrew Tate, Nick Fuentes and BAP were making light of to downright defending Epstein. Then you have libertarian, Richard Hanania, who went out of his way to apologize for his past as an anti-semitic White nationalist, yet being an Epstein apologist is the one issue he choses to be edgy about. You would think that the leaks would be Fuentes’s moment of total vindication for his nazi anti-semitic agenda, but instead he is saying Epstein was cool and selling Epstein themed merch. Fuentes then flip flops by calling out Stephen Miller’s wife for downplaying the Epstein ties. It is just bizarre that so-called anti-semites/neonazis are defending Epstein, especially if you were online long enough to remember the pre-alt right Stormfront type neonazis. Also, women and men with daughters are just going to have a much stronger emotional reaction to the Epstein leaks than young single men who Fuentes caters to, and I see these groups parting morally.

Nick Fuentes is a shock jock akin to Howard Stern of the 90s, but also is a radical contrarian and represents a rightwing post-modernism. However, I get why Fuentes is calling out the goyim for their stupidity and slave mentality, and he probably has contempt for his fans. I can relate to this as I got involved with the pre-alt-right WN antisemite scene but a lot of them ended up reminding me of the sanctimonious Bush supporting conservatives that I rebelled against, so I ended up trolling them by talking about my Jewish ancestry and how Jewish women are hot.

The stance that Epstein was an ephebophile rather than a pedophile is a very autistic male brained take, even if there is that legitimate distinction. However, there are allegations from the leaks about crimes against pre-pubescent girls. I don’t think finding teenage girls attractive makes someone a monster or a morally bad person in itself but rather the systematic and extreme abuse and exploitation is the evil. I actually think that the Epstein class are far worse than pedophiles, because a pedophile is stuck with this mental illness that is forced upon them like a curse and they should seek psychiatric help. In contrast, these people may well be attracted to adult women but get off on breaking certain moral boundaries that normal people can’t, and are likely a tad psychopathic and sadistic, thus view their non-elite victims as less than human. They get invited to an Epstein party and seek out this “novel” experience because they are bored with having everything.

The aftermath could also possibly make gender relations worse like me too did, including equating age gap relationships among adults with pedophilia. I could see feminists trying to raise the age of consent to 21, perhaps saying that 18 to 20 year olds were also exploited by Epstein. For instance, a teacher is facing 20 years in prison for sleeping with an 18 year old student. Basically, average guys are punished for the crimes of elites. Not to mention that many women were accomplices to Epstein, besides Ghislaine.

Alex Pretti, who was killed by ICE at an anti-ICE protest in Minneapolis, probably followed the normie life script of getting good grades, going to University, and getting a good job in hope that it would land him a wife, family, and social status. Certainly, Pretti had success in his career as a VA ICU nurse, so by most metrics he was an upstanding member of society. However, he was odd looking, and very well could have been an incel, approaching middle age without a wife and kids, though he was divorced. So basically he was a failed normie.

The media even had to use AI to manipulate his image to make him appear better looking, thus more sympathetic to liberal women, which is kind of sad. However, he likely wasn’t a misogynist, like the incels or red pillers, thus was desperate for female moral approval. Perhaps being woke was an attempt to be relevant to the zoomettes at the anti-ICE rallies. I am not at all implying that he wanted to assassinate anyone like Luigi Mangione did, but perhaps he envied the female attention that Mangione garnered as a Chad. Regardless, this is all speculation, as I don’t know what was going on in his mind or his entire personal life story.

There is this moment in your life when you realize that your chance at achieving your dream of what the good life is has past by and you snap, as it becomes harder to cope. To be brutally honest, I am dealing with this crisis myself, as I recently turned 40. Renee Good, who was also killed by ICE at the protest, was a similar age. However, it is harder to say if she was reacting to these psychosocial issues, as she had kids from a divorce and was in a lesbian relationship. I am going to take the high road which is not to virtue signal to appear moderate and non hateful, considering that I dislike Pretti and Good’s political views on immigration. Rather, I have some degree of empathy for them because I feel their pain as a fellow anguished elder millennial. Not to mention that Good’s children are orphans which is tragic. Millennials are the first generation to be devastated by the total breakdown in social cohesion, and zoomers will probably end up worse off. However, zoomers have a slight advantage of knowing that society is rigged against them early on. What will happen to all these millennials, as they grow old alone, with no social support network and have nothing to lose?

There is a psychological profile of a person who feels a need to be a hero, which is also uniquely engrained in American culture, in which life must be a movie script. People having unfulfilled psychosocial issues, failing to achieve certain life milestones, and a sense of emptiness, further pushes people in this direction. While the incel school shooter is far more nihilistic, in contrast with these people who desire moral capital and heroism, there are some parallels in how they react to existential despair and vulnerable narcissism, which I also relate to.

Politics fills that void of existential despair and creates a hero arch for oneself when one’s life is meaningless and one’s future trajectory looks hopeless. Politics has taken the place of religion and so many people want to be martyrs for their political cause. People tell themselves that their motives are purely moral and righteous, but these subconscious psychosocial undertones alway come into play. This also applied to failed middle aged MAGA men with little left to lose who stormed the Capitol on January 6th, as well as Aaron Bushnell, who set himself on fire for Gaza.

The Trump admin’s official stance is that the deaths were purely accident and then you have some conservatives outright celebrating Pretti and Good’s deaths, which says a lot about where we are as a society. There is a lack of empathy to the other side which is both a sign of radical polarization and a total breakdown in social capital, and hyperreality where we live online and are disconnected from one another. I am not even trying to moralize but rather am just stating our reality.

Risking sounding like an annoying enlightened centrist type, both the Left and Right oversimplify the incidents to fit their particular narratives. The Left views ICE agents as mercilessly executing heroic protestors while the MAGA right views the ICE agents as all heroes and leftist protestors as domestic terrorists. Conservatives are right that leftist agitators are baiting ICE and trying to cause disorientation and chaos but ICE are falling for it and not handling the situation well. Either the ICE agents are not adequately trained or they are just used to dealing with border issues and not used to civilian law enforcement duties.

Alex Pretti encountered ICE before the day of his death in which he was belligerent and broke a rib in the altercation. Also, he had a concealed gun, which he had a legal permit for, thus there was some degree of ambiguity over culpability for his death. In contrast with Renee Good, it appeared that while she was driving away, the agents just shot her, even if she may have previously rammed her car into them. The agents who killed Pretti being Latino adds another angle of irony. Despite Trump being accused of being anti-Latino, ICE agents wearing face coverings like Latin American secret police and using excessive force against White American civilians is a signal of America’s Latinization. Another irony is you have leftwing protestors calling a Black ICE agent a house n-word, which epitomizes the dark woke meme. Basically, both sides are throwing out any niceties, which entails the Left giving up political correctness when dealing with their adversaries.

While I am broadly sympathetic to nationalism and immigration restriction, Trump is fucking things up for that cause and MAGA cultists go along with it. The damage caused by the optics of the performative ICE raids has been done, even if Trump backs down on deportations, which looks likely as Trump is talking about only deporting criminals, as well as increasing H-2B visas for ag workers. Thus, carrying out mass deportations is the only path that Trump has left to maintain any legitimacy, especially considering that Democrats will win the midterms and obstruct him. It also seems like Trump is targeting Minneapolis for being a hub of leftwing activism while it actually has far fewer illegal immigrants per capita than cities like LA and Houston. ICE should minimize engaging with protesters and knock off the performative cruelty, and be doing more workforce raids. However, enforcing E-verify and sanctioning employers of illegal immigrants is the most effective way and a lot less messy.

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Earlier this month, I attended an Ariel Pink concert in Santa Barbara with and got to meet him. I told Ariel Pink that listening to his music on shrooms changed my life which he was happy to hear. Since the concert, I have been listening a lot to Ariel Pink’s most recent album, With You Every Night, which he performed at the concert. The song Everybody Is Fucking Wrong reflects a sense of isolation, paranoia, being misunderstood, and at odds with the world, but most importantly a narcissistic sense of being right which I find relatable. The song Entertainment pokes fun at the absurdity of life and self help platitudes with an ironic albeit upbeat message.

Ariel Pink was canceled for attending Trump’s Jan 6th rally and has made provocative statements from “It’s not illegal to be an asshole. It’s not illegal to be racist, even. It’s not illegal to do anything,” and “I love gays, by the way. And I love p-dophiles, too. And I love necrophiliacs.” The other band I’ve been listening to a lot is, Part Time, which like Ariel Pink is hypnogogic and draws from retro genres. Also, the band’s front man, David Loca, was canceled due to a me too allegation.

Over MLK weekend, I went to Big Bear with Matt. Big Bear is an oasis between the vast sprawl of the Inland Empire and the desert, the geographic shift heightening the shift in consciousness. However, I remember Big Bear being much more beautiful and magical from trips from my early years, which is fitting with Collin Wilson’s themes about consciousness being dimmed, even though it is still a really scenic place. Travel is a way to extend your consciousness as a break in the monotonous daily mundane that can condense your life. However, due to the crowds, I didn’t get as many opportunities to be alone in nature, though I did hike to a waterfall which had icicles, despite the unusually warm dry weather for this time of year.

Big Bear

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Photo credit: Robert Stark

I am friends with a zoomette e girl from Twitter who I was planning to meet up with in LA. However, she texted me, as I was on my way to Big Bear, that she could not see me because she had a guy she is dating visiting her. It was fitting that I listened to the song, No Boys Till Midnight by Part Time, over and over in a melancholic state. The song’s lyrics of romantic longing, disappointment, and delayed gratification very fitting. Songs curate a trip, creating a certain vibe of experience of consciousness, and that song along with the Ariel Pink songs defined that short trip. I have this desire to capture a particular emotion or vibe, including from a particular time, place, aesthetic, person, or song, and trap it and save it permanently. Even if this is difficult to do, there is comfort is knowing that essence is permanent in the Divine.

Visiting Big Bear triggered a sort of romantic feeling you recollect from adolescence. For instance, you visit an alpine lake like this on a family vacation in adolescence and get a crush on a cute blonde girl and that memory is imprinted in your subconscious. It is not necessarily about being in a relationship but that early longing, “saudade”, for the romantic ideal which has a divine component. Age gap hysteria is about shaming that longing and coercing you into bourgeois conformity which entails the banal of settling down with your age, looks, and status match rather than seeking out the feminine ideal.

My Borat inspired mini mocumentary filmed in Big Bear, Lake Arrowhead, and Joshua Tree from the late 2010s

When you go hiking and there is a girl in front of you whose buttocks is all sweaty in yoga pants, her essence is going to be different depending upon whether she is an affluent prissy blonde or a harniza who eats flaming hot Cheetos. This is because of the pheromones from their anuses and buttocks sweat. It is fine to lick the sweaty butts of much younger women or women from different demographic or socioeconomic backgrounds to expand consciousness or as a way to create harmony between groups, yet that is still so taboo, especially if the woman is of a higher socioeconomic status or much younger. If an 18 year old upper class coded White woman won’t sit on your face, you react by class warfare against the 1% and if an 18 year old Mexican woman won’t sit on your face, you are like Stephen Miller is right and we need to triple ICE spending and capacity of Alligator Alcatraz. When love is not allowed, hatred must fill that void. In all seriousness, there probably won’t be an incel revolution but social isolation and sexual frustration are leading to a more cold callouss society where people fuck each other over for any ounce of status, money, or pussy.

Robert and Matt at the local hot spring

Photo credit: Robert Stark

The day before the Ariel Pink concert, I went to my local hot spring and noticed an increase in nudity since I first started going a couple years ago. It is not just old hippie dudes with wrinkly scrotums but people of both genders and all ages and races, though the hippie chicks are more likely to be nude while the upper class coded college chicks are just in really skimpy bikinis. I think people are fed up with this sterile de-sexualized society since covid and seek vitalism and liberation.

Big Bear

Photo credit: Robert Stark

One thing I observed is that the demographics of Big Bear’s visitors, which is an alpine hyperborea amongst SoCal’s wasteland, has changed a lot since past trips, even as recently as the late 2010s. It used to be super White but the last trip I noticed a lot more Mexicans from the Inland Empire, as well as more Indians. I don’t necessarily have a problem with different demographics of people enjoying an amazing place, which is our commons, and I want to be in the spirit of Dr King for MLK day. However, it does change the vibe and different types of people give off different metaphysical frequencies. For instance, Mexicans are more likely to have picnics and barbecues by the lake to socialize with their families while there is something very Faustian and Aryan about hiking alone to a mountain top and being one with nature, which isn’t to say there aren’t people of color who also appreciate that. Ariel Pink is half Jewish (Mexican Jewish) and Part Time’s, David Loca, is half Mexican and both of their music is very etherial, though some autistic online racist might say Mischlings (half Ashkenazis) and Castizos (half Mexicans) are basically three quarters European. Regardless, I am not some rigid nazi racialist but rather more theosophical where that intersects with HBD.

Big Bear

Photo credit: Robert Stark

After Big Bear, I spent MLK monday in LA and had a Chinese dinner in Chinatown, which was fitting for the holiday to celebrate multiculturalism. Whenever I visit LA, where I grew up, I always feel more misanthropic. LA in particular epitomizes this atomization which is this anonymous oppression because there is no clear villain or oppressor to hate or scapegoat. Basically, people of different races and socioeconomic classes are affable when doing commerce, but people are generally indifferent to one another or view each other as a minor nuisance, such as in traffic. Basically, LA is more Bowling Alone than American History X, which isn’t to say anti-Whiteness isn’t a problem in America. This creates a sense of nihilism, where you feel neither love nor hate, and intimacy and deeper meaning is not allowed. LA’s built environment of endless car oriented sprawl further enhances this feeling. Conflict in which there is a clear in group vs out group or hero vs villain narrative creates meaning out of nothingness which explains alienated radicals who fantasize about race war, civil war, or revolution. The hippie or spiritualists and nazi/bigot both seek meaning on opposite ends of the spectrum out of the meaninglessness of a nihilistic mercantile consumerist society.

LA Chinatown

Photo Credit: Robert Stark

Photo Credit: Robert Stark

The Demiurge is not the lesser deity that Gnostics describe as enslaving mankind. Rather the Demiurge is a metaphysical prison created by the masses of humans with an inferior consciousness. Breaking taboos is a way to dismantle the demiurgic trap and the three biggest societal taboos are racial differences, age gaps/attraction to youth, and rejecting the slave morality over work. While I should be more positive and post spiritually uplifting material, my articles that deal with race or sex go viral while my more positive articles are more marginal. This depresses me like the Universe is rewarding me for spewing out negativity, rage bait, or smut. I might say something offensive, either sexually provocative or racially insensitive, on Twitter to get a reaction in order to alchemize that chaotic energy. However, all sorts of transgressive content, including racial slurs, are now amplified on Twitter, thus it feels like an echo chamber or being a patient yelling obscenities in an insane asylum. Basically, Twitter is just another metaphysical prison and saying shocking offensive things for clicks isn’t really challenging the status quo. Despite the chaos online and in the news cycle, society still feels stagnant and politics feels like a cope.

I debate with myself whether it is spiritually right to use hatred as chaos magic to break the demiurgic trap. Despite love being more attuned to the Divine, you need to feel some degree of hatred and disgust to detach yourself from a rotten society that deserves scorn to be closer to the spiritual realm, which is tough if you have social obligations or a job. When you say to yourself that you hate everyone, maybe it seems antithetical to spirituality, but you are also saying you don’t care about social status and what role society tries to place you in which can be liberating.

Video promo I did on MLK Day (Notice how jittery I was from over caffeination)

I am stuck in this ego trap where I keep stressing out about how can I become more radically creative and create content that is extremely brilliant and unique and leads to social and monetary success and the recognition that I deserve. Even though I enjoy hanging out with friends, socializing always brings up dynamics pertaining to status and the ego. For instance, the gossip about who is doing what and talk about whether projects are lucrative. Thus, there is an appeal in asceticism where you avoid social dynamics and what they entail. You turn inward and either try to attune yourself to the Divine or your own subconscious, including the darker elements. There is this meme going around of a penguin going out into the wilderness alone which is very fitting to where a lot of people, especially young men, are metaphysically.

US nominal GDP growth for Q3 of 2025 was revised up to 4.4% which is the highest GDP growth since the end of covid. There was a brief negative contraction in Q1 of last year. On the surface, this growth goes against the doom and gloom recessionary sentiment. Trump shills are celebrating like he ushered in an economic miracle. However, the labor market is cooling down with non farm payrolls negative and likely worse than the data, which appears a total contradiction. Gold and silver were recently at an all time high, which is a signal of a potential financial crisis, as they are hedges. However, today, silver crashed, erasing all its gains alongside a crash in bitcoin yesterday, which are signs of volatility.

The main explanation for GDP growth is that we are in a k-shaped economy where the top 10% of consumers are driving GDP growth while the bottom half are in a recession. This is a total paradigm shift where the top 10% can sustain the entire economy alongside a massive AI cap x spending approaching one trillion. Basically, the economy is being propped up by the stock market and AI bubble. The question is whether the AI bubble bursts or it keeps growing, sustaining rapid GDP growth, coinciding mass layoffs. Not to mention that GDP growth is also being sustained by healthcare spending due to an aging population, rising healthcare costs, and people rushing to use healthcare services out of fear their benefits will be cut.

The other explanation for GDP growth is that imports are declining due to Trump’s tariffs, so people are avoiding foreign goods and paying more to buy more expensive US goods, which increases GDP by reducing capital outflow out of the country. However, what is bizarre is that this is not reflected in an increase in manufacturing jobs, which are stagnant to declining. In a sense, the tariffs are working in some regards yet not working because manufacturing is much less labor intensive with more automation. Even if the weaker dollar makes US exports cheaper, we have failed to rebuild our manufacturing base so we are just stuck with the inflation. While the tariffs are not as catastrophic as predicted, it is more of this residual sticky inflation.

We are expected to have another government shutdown soon, there are potential new tariffs on Canada and European nations, the US may invade Iran soon, Trump is looking to steal Greenland which would destroy US political and economic ties with Europe/NATO, and the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Powell. There is a crises with Japan’s bond market and Europe is threatening to dump US bonds over Greenland, which could trigger a financial crash. While the government claims that the GDP growth stats are adjusted for inflation, you really have to ask if a lot of it is actually the weakening of the dollar, which is inflationary. This level of GDP growth is unsustainable, so either there is a spike in long term bond yields or there is a crash in GDP growth.

The Trump admin has issued an indefinite pause on the processing of immigrant visas for 75 countries. Notably, this ban includes White countries such as Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo, White adjacent countries including Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Lebanon, and Uruguay, and Brazil which while not majority White has a significant White minority. While Ukraine is not banned, Trump has threatened to revoke parole for Ukrainian refugees.

Putting aside that White countries are included, these immigrant groups are mostly inconsequential. I get the feeling that these nations were selected arbitrarily besides the obvious targets of MAGA xenophobic ire like Somalia and Haiti. The Trump admin alleges that the ban is based upon high rates of receiving welfare which is dubious because certain poor Latin American immigrant groups like El Salvador and Honduras are not included in the ban.

Notably, the major sources of immigration to the US like India, China, Mexico, the Philippines, and El Salvador are not included. The main reason that Trump did not pause immigration from these big countries is because it would anger big ag and the construction industry for Mexico/El Salvador, the nursing industry for the Philippines, and big tech for India/China which the GOP is beholden too. For instance, the Trump admin just renewed permits for ag visas and backed down from mass deportations to only focus on criminals. Perhaps JD Vance’s wife Usha got a word in about India.

These smaller nations also have less influential diasporas to protest, thus they are easy targets. For instance, if Trump banned Mexicans, the GOP would risk losing more Mexican American swing voters in the midterms. El Salvador and Honduras are probably not on the list because they both have Trump aligned leaders, despite these immigrant groups having high rates of poverty and crime. Cuba is banned, despite having an influential rightwing diaspora, because it is an adversary of the US. Brazil is probably banned in retaliation for Lula imprisoning Bolsonaro and opposing the invasion of Venezuela. Also, Arab countries that have given Trump bribes like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE aren’t listed. When it comes down to it, Trump is first and foremost a wheeler dealer who treats all policy, including immigration, as transactional and his racism is more performative.

Trump’s mass visa pause is inline with his recent executive decision to scrap the diversity visa lottery, which is a program to admit immigrants from smaller underrepresented nations. The countries restricted roughly matches the countries eligible for the lotto. The diversity visa lotto was initially created as a reaction to the 1965 Hart Celler act ending favoritism to Europeans, thus Irish and Italian American groups lobbied for diversity visas as an easier path to immigrate. While just under 10% of U.S. green cards go to Europeans, within the Diversity Visa program, Europeans received 30–35%. In FY '24 Diversity Visas were 62% of immigrant visas issued to Georgians, 55% issued to Belarussians, 45% issued to Russians, 40% issued to Armenians, 38% issued to Ukrainians, 31% issued to Albanians, 18% issued to Italians, 12% issued to Greeks, and 10% issued to Poles. Christa Pushaw, who was the rapid response director for Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign, proclaimed “we do not need more immigrants from Scotland,” regarding ending the diversity visa lottery.

Despite Europeans being overrepresented, the anti-immigrant Right is hostile to the diversity lotto because it is also used disproportionately by African and Muslim immigrants. There is an immigration restrictionist argument for preventing Sub Saharan African immigrants from gaining a demographic foothold due to chain migration and their rapid population growth. For instance, Nigeria which Trump banned has the potential to be a major demographic group in the US, as it will eventually surpass the US in population. Even if there are valid reasons for not wanting more Somali immigration, I feel like Trump and the GOP are making them scapegoats to detract from Trump’s many failures, including on immigration policy.

Disclaimer: This is satire

The countries banned like Brazil, Russia, and Iran are known for having hot women. Sure, there are some really hot Indian and Mexican women but on average they are less attractive than Russians, Iranians, or Brazilians. The hotter Mexican women are usually more Americanized from the middle class while the hotter Indian women are less likely to be tech strivers, thus not aligned with the corporatists agenda for cheap labor. Not to mention countries like Colombia and Thailand are banned which means passport bros can no longer bring back a wife from there. This is Trump’s way of cucking his male supporters, a large portion of whom have problems with American women, while oligarchs still get their cheap immigrant labor.

Trump’s ICE has been arresting and deporting a lot of White people from Polish undocumented immigrants to Germans and Canadians overstaying their tourist visas. The Polish MFA is concerned that up to 30k Polish citizens might be deported from the US. I suspect that Trump is actually deporting more White undocumented immigrants per capita than Latinos because Latinos have massive communities and social networks that can shelter them from deportations. Not to mention that ICE might be arresting Europeans to detract from racism allegations.

Trump admitting White South Africans as refugees is more symbolic in how it challenges the Overton Window in favoring White immigrants over non-Whites and portraying Whites as victims and Blacks as oppressors. This is why the Left was outraged over just a tiny handful of White South African refugees. However, the demographic impact so far seems to be minimal. Biden brought in about 300k Ukrainian refugees while Trump has only brought in like one hundred South African White refugees. So either White South Africans are less interested in coming here than the America Right claims or the Trump admin is just really incompetent. Trump set a refugee cap at only 7k slots, so the slots available for White Africans are miniscule. Not to mention that one of the South Africans Trump admitted ended up detained by ICE.

I remember when Trump said he wanted Norwegians and not people from shithole countries, but Norwegians generally don’t want to come here with the exception of strivers trying to become rich. The White people who do want to come here are from those countries that Trump banned, with Russia being the largest group. However, there has been a slight uptick in foreign students from the UK, as foreign students have declined overall. Even with the minuscule increase in White immigration from South Africa and perhaps a handful of rich Europeans from Trump’s gold card visa program, it is probably still a net decline in White immigration from the Biden era due to the visa pauses, the end of the diversity visa lotto, deportations of White undocumented immigrants, and restricting Ukrainian refugees. This is the last opportunity for any significant White immigration and Trump is closing the door.

If visas are unused they just go to another immigrant group, so this visa ban does not reduce overall immigration numbers but rather shifts them to non-banned countries. For instance, during covid a lot of unused visas for family reunification went to Indian h1bs. Even if there is an overall reduction in immigration under Trump, the Indian share of immigration will likely grow while the White share may not. Thus, Trump’s policies solidify the Mexican/Central American monopoly on working class jobs and Indians in tech.

There is a pro immigration scenario in which the White percentage declines more while Whites numerically decline less due to White immigration vs a low immigration scenario where the percentages are more stable while Whites decline more numerically. Thus, if Trump just banned all immigration it would be different but he is shifting demographics in favor of groups that already have a large foothold rather than diversifying the immigrant population.

Smearing someone as a “pedo” can be similar to calling someone a racist as a way to intimidate a political opponent by destroying their reputation. It's very similar to calling one’s political opponent racist discourse but instead "my opponents are the real pedos." The peak normie is someone who feels the need to signal morally against both White Supremacy/racism and pedos, as twin secular demons. You saw this with Oprah where she is very woke on race but more conservative when addressing sexual predators.

source: @FlordianBoy5 on X

The Right uses groomer or pedo allegations against the trans agenda and drag queen story hour, as part of some vast sinister liberal agenda to normalize p-dophilia. While there are some genuinely pro-p-dophilia types on the Left, I think they are quite fringe (eg. basement-dwelling Antifa, ex-cons, crackpot professors, and certain radical LGBTQ activists). The overwhelming majority of ordinary liberals are not at all sympathetic to p-dophilia. For instance, you heard Democrat pundits taking pride in the fact that Kamala Harris was a sex crimes prosecutor. Even if QAnon is right about elites being involved in pedophilia, why would they want to normalize that for the masses, as elites and intelligence agencies can use it as political blackmail.

source: @GarbageHuman24 on X

source: @Aella_Girl on X

In contrast, The Left uses the sex predator or pedo smear against their adversaries on the Right, like with Trump’s alleged ties to Epstein, and Matt Gaetz with the “pedocon” meme. I remember how much of the original manosphere talked about wanting a lower age of consent but then as soon as Trump was elected, these same guys went full QAnon. Even today, you have dissident right figure, Nick Fuentes, talking about wanting to marry a 16 year old and the more anti-social of the right lusting after Donald Trump’s granddaughter, Kai Trump, before she turned 18, with more respectable conservatives coming in to morally police them. Despite Nick Fuentes and his Groypers LARPing as American Nationalist Trad Caths, they reflect the more nihilistic 4chan culture in which both extreme racism and sexual perversion are prevalent. An online survey by sex researcher, Aella, found that rightwingers have slightly higher rates of both p-dophilia and eph-bophilia. Regardless, I don’t think the divide is left vs right but rather normie vs anti-social.

source: @RightWingWatch on X

The rightwing is at odds with normies on many issue but anti-pedo signaling and cracking down hard on sex crimes is one issue where the Right has commonality with normies, and especially women, who might otherwise view rightwing stances on issues like immigration as mean spirited. Women are more reactive to moral hysterias relating to sexual issues, crime victims, and especially protecting children.

source: @WesternLensman on X

I don’t see any danger in society becoming more permissive toward p-dophiles or even eph-bophiles, considering how appalled the masses are. The overall trend has been more states raising their ages of consent to 18. Conservatives don’t realize that a movie like Pretty Baby from 1978 could not get made today. In the late 1990s, there was a controversy about Barnes & Nobles selling art n-de photography books by controversial photographers, Jock Sturges and David Hamilton, featuring minors, which is unfathomable today. Howard Stern would get canceled today for when he used to do countdowns for when celebrities, like the Olsen Twins, turned 18.

There was a huge backlash against the push to normalize p-dophilia in the 70s. The peak of the sex predator hysteria from the 90s, and 00s, was a reaction to the accesses of the sexual revolution, the 70s/80s crime wave, and boomers starting families and moving to the suburbs, seeking to create a safe sanitized environment for their children. Overall, Americans are far more obsessed with p-dophilia than other nations.

source: @dialgatime321 on X

The p-dophile hysteria has its origins in the Victorian Cult of the Child and the Progressive Era. It was the Yankee Puritan descendants who lobbied for a higher age of consent on egalitarian grounds while the more inegalitarian South was fine with adult men marrying young teens. A South Carolina ballot measure to raise the age of consent to 16 from 14 in 2008 passed by only 5 percentage points with the strongest support from middle to upper middle class White suburban areas while losing in rural redneck and Black areas.

source: @UfoHitch on X

The feminist moral hysteria over age-gap relationships between consenting adults is a far stronger force on the Left and in society at large. Neurotic Millennial women raised on stranger danger channeled that into the Me Too movement regarding adult relations. The Me Too movement created an environment where all men are treated as potential predators causing many young men to avoid even approaching women. Me Too feminism transferred blame for sexual abuse of elite men in Hollywood to average guys. Not to mention that many Me Too feminists took a “believe all victims” approach to “he said, she said” cases of rape allegations, where there is no strong forensic evidence, which is abhorrent to the principle of due process. This is showing up in legislation with the UK criminalizing persistent staring at people in public. I would not be surprised if a female Democratic politician proposes Romeo & Juliet laws for adults with at least 21 and perhaps even 25 as the unlimited age of consent.

Contrary to conservative's’ belief that liberals desire softer penalties for sex offenders, Aaron Sibarium reported in The Free Press that “Progressive lawyers have become more determined to turn a blind eye to certain defendants while cracking down with even greater than usual fervor on certain crimes. “The same people who are anti-incarceration for some defendants will support life plus cancer for others.” The Free Press quoted Scott Greenfield, a criminal-defense attorney in New York, that “Good people—which in practice means blacks and Hispanics, regardless of what they did—should be free. Bad people—which in practice means sex offenders and financial criminals—should go to jail.”

If the Left believes that non-White crime is caused by poverty or racism, then White criminals must be especially heinous. The show Law & Order would often depict sex offenders as uniquely heinous but also mostly White. At the same time, Black and Hispanic criminal suspects were more portrayed as victims of poverty. Netflix’s Dahmer series depicts the true story of a judge who granted Jeffrey Dahmer a lenient sentence for a sex crime and frames it as a case of White privilege, as Dahmer’s victim was non-White. While liberal judges, like that judge in Dahmer, have handed out lenient sentences to sex offenders, ironically this won’t be the case when Zoomer and Millennial girl bosses, who obsess over age gaps, become judges and prosecutors.

The canard that White men are more likely to be p-dophiles is often used as a comeback by leftists and non-Whites when pointing out racial crime stats. Since sex crimes are viewed as far worse than other crimes, the false canard that Whites are more likely to be sexual offenders is especially harmful. Same with other false canards that Whites are more likely to be serial killers, school shooters, and incels. An article on the lefty site, Counterpunch, admitted that “about half of sex offenders are White, and 27% are Black, then higher for forcible rape and cases involving strangers, though share for internet sex crimes is closer to general population.” However, the article claims that Blacks have higher rates of sex offenses due to unfairness in the judicial system. The rate of p-dophilia are likely similar among races but Blacks have higher rates of violent sexual offenses due to worse impulse control and higher testosterone. Not to mention that there are a lot of unreported sexual offenses among illegal immigrants. However, Whites might be more represented among sexual offenses compared to other violent crimes, like murder, assault, or armed robbery.

The paranoia that the average middle class guy might a potential pedo is a sign of a low trust society and has been used to justify atomization and bureaucratic/managerial “long house” control over society in the same way that Nazis/KKK/slavery, were used to justify open borders and the erasure of European identity. It is also an alliance between women and more established married men to scrutinize unattached low status men. The question is how much has the pedo hysteria actually prevented abuse, and if so, is that trade off worth it for a more atomized society?

Online predator poachers and the show To Catch a Predator were so performative in how they would often humiliate mentally ill loner nerds. Not to mention going after a 20 year old guy chatting up a 17 year old who was actually a 25 year old. The stereotype of pedos being weirdo loners relates to how incels often get accused of being pedos, as if being linked to school shooters was not bad enough. For instance, a Report by the Centre For Countering Digital Hate, which is extremely ideologically biased, alleged that about half of incels support p-dophilia. There is no evidence that incels are more likely to commit sex crimes, considering that they are so high in inhabitation. Many of the most dangerous sex offenders are more macho thuggish types or charismatic neurotypicals who gain the trust of their victims. The idea that men who are less masculine are also morally depraved fits a good narrative for ironically both man hating feminists and more macho signaling rightwing chuds.

Pred poachers have many similarities to Antifa/anti-racists, in that they are people with authoritarian personality types who hide behind a moral cause. They’re motivated by narcissism, attention seeking, and a sadistic pleasure in wanting to humiliate people. However, these pred poachers do sometimes catch some genuinely heinous people, alongside all the autistic incel loners, which muddies the waters.

There is a trope of a sex offender possible getting gang raped in prison, a barbaric eye for an eye form of justice. Obviously it is disgusting to give any moral authority to the absolute most depraved and thuggish people of society, and an anti-rape/abuse stance should be consistent. There is hypocrisy to prison morality/justice in that a guy who kills someone while committing an armed robbery and orphans their children is lauded as a hardcore OG while a loner nerd caught up in an online predator sting or a pretty boy with statutory rape charges is a “chomo who deserves to get his wig split and cheeks busted in.”

While an eph-bophile is someone who has a preference for teenagers over adults, normal healthy adult males have some degree of attraction to teenagers slightly below the age of consent. Just not strong enough for them to break the law. It is fine if society decides to keep the age of consent at 18, but I hate how people have to virtue signal that if you find anyone a week shy of turning 18 attractive, you’re a monster. 17 is not that different from 18 biologically and morally but society has to draw the legal line somewhere. Aella’s survey on the taboo of various sexual f-tishes found that attraction to teenagers under the age of 18 is one of the few things that is both very common and very taboo. Eph-bophilia should be treated as different from pedophilia but that does not mean it should be totally tolerated either.

source: Aella’s Substack

Sexual paraphilias are often caused by trauma, with p-dophiles frequently victims of childhood abuse themselves while eph-bophilia is often a reaction to adolescent trauma. There is also a theory that p-dophilia is caused by brain damage while in the womb. However, eph-bophiles, like Jeffrey Epstein, are guys who are bored with having unlimited access to regular sex with adult women and likely also have psychopathic traits. Regular men might have some of those feelings, but they are able to suppress them by adopting a disgust mechanism in response to societal conditioning, thus don’t act on it. In contrast, men with more psychopathic tendencies don’t have those moral suppression mechanisms, though social isolation can also play a role.

The defense of “ethical” or non offending p-dophiles, those who remain celibate and don’t act on their desires, or date adults, is that they aren’t harming anyone by just existing. There is also a pro-child safety argument that if a person can openly identity as a p-dophile without stigma, then there can be some agreement that they are never to be around children unsupervised, and it makes it easier for them to get psychiatric help. However, the counter argument is that this is a slippery slope or hidden strategy to get more lenient treatment of p-dophiles. Not to mention that it also takes an idealistic assumption that these people all have good impulse control in such a low trust society.

Sexual predators are a real problem and danger and there are certain sex crime so heinous that warrant life imprisonment. However, I see the issue exploited like anti-racism with a lack of intelligence, thoughtfulness, and nuance. Moral hysterias will always get politically exploited to take away freedom, exploiting a healthy biological imperative to want to protect one’s family from harm. Like racism, the term p-dophile becomes meaningless when it is overused, such as against a 30 or 40 year old man desiring 18 year old women.

Because human nature is tribal, society needs certain groups as villains or scapegoats and p-dophiles are an easy group to hate. People want simplistic answers that are easy to emotionally process. Nuance is needed to combat the QAnon-ification of the Right and the feminist age gap hysteria of the Left. Regardless, the expected response to this article will likely be there is no nuance, the only solution is the “wood chipper.”

By being such an overt imperialist, Trump is unmasking the moral veneer of the soft power of the American Empire. For instance, talking so brazenly about stealing Venezuela’s oil. Then you have talks of deals with oil companies and financial oligarchs to come in and loot Venezuela’s resources. Even the main justification for the invasion over drug trafficking is so flimsy because Venezuela’s involvement in drug trafficking is less than other Latin American nations, including Colombia and Mexico. Trump is not a neocon but rather an old school American imperialist more akin to William McKinley. In contrast, when George Bush invaded Iraq, he used spreading democracy and humanitarianism as a mask to hide imperialistic motives. Regardless, the neocons could very well have genuinely believed they were morally righteous while Trump is ok being a scumbag. Thus, there is an accelerationist case for Trump removing the moral veneer of capitalism and imperialism.

This could set a precedent of just taking countries, such as China being more embolden to invade Taiwan. Not to mention that America loses any moral leverage that it has against Russia with Ukraine. Trump is also threatening to take Greenland from Denmark, a close ally, which would be the most blatant example of imperialist aggression. If Trump invades Greenland, it will be the end of NATO, which many on the isolationist Right desire. If America’s economy crashes, expect more imperialistic actions like seizing resources, which is the nature of declining empires.

Americans were pissed off at how much American wealth was squandered in Iraq, so it resonated with many when Trump said we should have taken Iraqi oil to cover the cost of the war. Not to mention that so many people became disillusioned by the moral hypocrisy of the neocons using moralistic rhetoric as a shield for militarism. So now you have conservative influencers proclaiming that Venezuela’s oil will pay off the US debt, save the dollar, and create an economic boom, which is absurd, as it will take at least 5 years to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which goes beyond Trump’s term. This premature victory actually reminds me of George Bush’s mission accomplished in Iraq. MAGA cheering on the invasion, also neglect that wars almost inevitably lead to more immigration and refugees.

You would think if a nation is a super power, its people and especially men would feel empowered. Despite American hegemony, young American men, particularly White men, feel emasculated and disenfranchised. Not to mention that a lot of Iraq war vets, who were initially very idealistic, came back feeling betrayed by their country. Old school European colonialism set off excess young men with the promise that they could achieve wealth and status if they conquered for their nation. American imperialism is set up to enrich the top while not offering young men a role to be conquerers. For instance, a lot of the British elites supported decolonization in order to end the opportunities for young men to become wealthy and challenge the existing elite.

Now you have all these young rightwing men fantasizing about being colonizers, looting Venezuela of its resources and women, like the conquerors of yore. In a sense, they feel cucked by American society, so they want to dominate outgroups like Venezuelans, which is somewhat akin to how nationalist sentiment was channeled against the Middle East after 9/11 rather than internally. However, you did not see anything quite like this, as even the desire for revenge against the Arabs was framed in moralistic terms. Not to mention that young men are attracted to something that seems bad ass, like Trump blowing up shit and abducting Maduro, and not gay shit like the rules based international oder.

The online dissident right is divided between neocolonialists, such as the memes about Rhodesia, and Third Positionists. The older principled Paleocons idealized America as a nation and Republic while the younger dissident right are more nihilistic and see America for what it is as an empire. Third Positionism seeks to fuse aspects of White nationalism with leftwing ideologies, like third worldism, anti-imperialism, and anti-capitalism. To the Third Positionist, White Americans are a conquered people like those living under imperialism in the third world, so we should make common cause with them. An example of this is Tucker Carlson defending Venezuela because they are socially conservative and anti-usury despite the Chavez/Maduro regime being racist against Venezuelans of European extraction.

The Third Position desires the moral capital that leftists have while the imperialistic young men of the right are nihilistic, “might makes right.” However, the anti-American right or collapse bros are also nihilistic, in how they feel so disenfranchised that they want the American system to be destroyed. Perhaps being conquerers, even if LARPing, is more psychologically empowering than third worldism and White victimhood. The neocolonialists are tired of feeling like losers and now feel like they are on the winning team, even if they likely won’t benefit while oligarchs will. The weird thing is the same people go back and forth between these two philosophies. Thus you have Nick Fuentes’s supporters turning on him over his support for war. While Nick Fuentes is generally an isolationist and has flirted with third worldism, not only is he ok with the invasion of Venezuela, he posted a meme about a hypothetical expanded American empire across Latin America.

An explanation could be that war with Iran is about Israel while war with Venezuela is about American hegemony (eg the Monroe Doctrine). They saw American imperialism as long cucked to the Jews, such as in the Middle East or against Russia, but rather than be anti-imperialists, we need imperialism for the White man. Certainly, the US was heavily involved in Latin America back when the WASPs were in charge, even if you have a Cuban/Venezuelan elite diaspora in South Florida that lobbies for intervention in Latin America. Not to mention that Fuentes praises Hitler, who was obviously a big imperialist. There is some legitimate argument for enforcing the Monroe doctrine while there is little valid reason to be heavily involved in the Middle East anymore. I just think we should retake our own country before we start going off on imperialistic fantasies.

Revisiting MAGA Communism after Trump’s Liberation Day, MAGA men were celebrating that the tariffs would economically harm women, thus making women have to settle for them. Their hope was a scenario in which pink collar jobs are destroyed and then re-industrialization creates all these new manufacturing jobs for men. Certainly, deindustrialization has devastated working class male earning power. However, Trump’s tariffs are actually destroying manufacturing jobs. It hints at desperation and despair in that so many men have no romantic or economic prospects, that they would rather just burn everything down.

A study found that the rate of incels is obviously highest in places where sex ratios are biased (e.g. more men than women), but also where income inequality is higher combined with lower gender gaps in income (eg. women make the same or more than men). Another study found that greater income inequality leads to women sexualizing themselves more on social media (eg hypergamy). Basically, a combination of high income inequality among men but where men can’t leverage any economic advantage over women leads to more incels. Not to mention that incels are disproportionately from the downwardly mobile middle class.

A response by the author of the survey is that “Incels usually blame #feminism, but our results are more consistent with #patriarchy being the problem. When few men hold much of society’s wealth, women’s competition for very desirable men increases.” While this is partially correct, incels are getting fucked over by both feminism and the patriarchy, though easing income inequality would certainly help. For instance, Europe also has feminism but the incel issue is less bad than the US because there is higher social capital and less income inequality.

There is this zero sum competition in which, when women do better economically the bar for men is higher and men have less leverage in dating and marriage. For instance, Scott Galloway, who advocates for young men from a liberal standpoint, says that men need to level up rather than to tear women down in response to the shortage of emotionally and economically viable men failing to meet women’s standards. Especially for liberals like Galloway, women’s economic equality is such a sacred pillar like civil rights. However, hypergamy, in which women do not want to date or marry down in status, nullifies feminist arguments about economic equality, as nasty of a world view that sounds. French writer, Michelle Houellebecq compared the sexual marketplace to neoliberal economics, as far as liberalization leading to a winner takes all.

Incels and the manosphere don’t really address the impact of aging demographics, which are bad for both dating and the economy. For instance, Japan became more incel coinciding a stagnating economy and aging population with the rise of hikikomoris. GenX guys looking to date down in age benefited from millennials being a larger cohort but millennials being a larger cohort than zoomers increases competition for both millennial and zoomer men.

Source: ifstudies.org

The rate of young male sexlessness actually started to rise modestly during the 08’ financial crisis but then accelerated around 2010 or 2012 (depending upon surveys), and continued into the “recovery” of the mid 2010s. This was likely because of the advent of the smart phones and Tinder. The late 2010s had a relatively good economy but the incel issue got much worse, which was a combination of social media, dating apps, the backlash to Trump as a symbol of toxic masculinity, but also women having more economic opportunities when Trump was boasting about the lowest unemployment for women and every other group except White males.

I remember how at the beginning of the pandemic, incels and NEETs were happy that “Chads and Stacies” were brought down to their level which ended up being a massive cope. However, the pandemic was worst for normies of middling status who were brought down closer to incels, even if the pandemic made things worse for incels too. I also remember how incels were rooting for the pandemic to crash the economy for similar reasons to the tariffs. I am hearing conflicting reports about incel status post pandemic with an assumption that it is worse while some surveys are saying that things are getting better again, which perhaps is a recessionary signal.

There was a brief talk of a she-cession toward the beginning of the pandemic as disproportionately female retail workers but also office workers were laid off on mass, as the lockdowns shut down businesses. However, the she-cession had less of an impact due to all the stimulus spending and rise of remote work which especially benefited women. In contrast, the 2008 Financial Crisis was a man-cession because a lot of working class male oriented jobs, primarily construction, were wiped out. Regardless, during the latter part of the pandemic, there was a temporary period where service sector workers had more labor bargaining power, which should have been a great thing but it had little positive impacts on ending the social isolation and dating crisis.

Unemployment is currently low for college educated young women but spiking for young men as well as non-college young women. Most significantly, unemployment rates for college educated young men have reached parity with non-college young men. This is because the greatest job losses are in male dominated industries like tech and manufacturing. In contrast, the female dominated industries like healthcare are strong due to an aging population and wealthy consumers are propping up retail and leisure and hospitality due to the stock market bubble. People have no clue how brutally central banking has destroyed the dating market. QE and manipulation of interest rates was as consequential as social media and iphones. The low interest rate climate meant that corporations went overboard on DEI hires of women and non-Whites.

The economy is in this in between zone where it is bad for middle class family formation but just good enough for young women to be financially independent. We have a financialized and service sector economy, so there are jobs for the very wealthy or service sector jobs for young women, but not enough good jobs for middle class men to start families. Inflation is devastating for low income families and single mothers but the current economy is actually ok for single young women, especially if they can live with their family. During the 2010s and early 2020s it seemed that women were thriving while men were struggling, but if we have a really bad recession things will be tough for everyone.

An economic crash might ease social atomization, as people are more dependent upon each other. For instance, millennials had a lot more fun during the 08’ recession when they were all living together with roommates while zoomers getting stimmie checks during the pandemic made them much more atomized. However, recessions also lead to more interpersonal conflicts, as families move in with each other, and to a rise in divorces and a decline in marriage and fertility. The recession will cause further delays in marriage when millennials and the oldest zoomers have already delayed marriage, which is going to exacerbate psychosocial problems.

There are parallels between the 1920s and today, with a proto sexual revolution with a lot of promiscuity and illegitimacy, and lots of bachelors, especially factory workers from immigrant backgrounds living together in flop houses and spending all their time in pool halls. The Great Depression likely had some role in ushering in the more socially conservative 1950s. On the other hand, 1970s stagflation coincided the rise in 2nd wave feminism, and more socially liberal values while the booming economy of the 80s was more conservative, so it is hard to predict where we are headed.

If you consider the number of women already doing OnlyFans and the moral breakdown and atomization of society, just imagine what things will look like in a major economic crises. In contrast, America during the Great Depression was much more high trust. Much like there was a rise in OnlyFans during the pandemic, expect to see more seeking arrangements sugar daddy culture. Sex work is usually criminalized when the economy is good, such as the 1950s, 80/90s, and the late 2010s when Trump’s justice department made anti-sex work a priority, but is loosened up when the economy is bad like the 70s. Third world countries have a lot of prostitutes but lower status men often still struggle to find wives, which I think is the future of America as it becomes more unequal and poor.

Remote work enabled all these passport bros to flood poorer countries which increased hoeflation in those countries. It used to just be incels or old men who geomaxxed, but now you have all these successful young Western guys living in Thailand and Colombia. The recession means that a lot of these passport bros will loose their remote work jobs and have to return home. Also, developing world’s economies were propped up when boomers were investing in retirement. Now that boomers are retiring in mass and maxxing out their 401ks, investments in these countries are about to dry up.

The economic downturn might be good for nerds and betas who have money but terrible for poorer men who currently struggle in dating. In times of economic hardship, money becomes more important than looks or non-monetary forms of social status. It will also screw over zoomer men more while giving millennial men some upper hand. Women having to lower their standards due to economic circumstances is going to be a rug pull that will probably end up making relations between the sexes much worse. Not to mention the backlash to Trump similar to how his first term inspired me too feminism.

It is predicted that AI will take more jobs from women than men by 2030. While the shift to managerialism favored women, the rise in automation could have the opposite impact, eliminating a lot of managerial positions that are disproportionately female. In contrast, men are either working in trades or in elite positions that are less likely to be automated. However, a post-scarcity economy with mass automation and UBI could make these problems much worse as the majority of men have no way to demonstrate excellence. The future could be especially grim for the average nerd as AI takes over white-collar jobs. He can’t compete at manual labor so he becomes poorer than the tradesmen. Automation plus UBI also grants more power to government to enact gender quotas for handouts. For instance, young women were harmed economically during the 08’ Financial Crisis in the UK, so the British government overcompensated by pushing massive female economic empowerment.

California has proposed a one time 5% wealth asset tax on billionaires, which could generate as much as $100 billion to fund education and healthcare. In response, billionaires like Peter Thiel and Larry Page are considering leaving the State. The measure is sponsored by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West and supported by prominent Democrats including congressman, Ro Khanna. This measure will likely go to California voters this year.

One valid argument against the wealth tax is that California’s Democrat run government will squander the money, with miss management, waste, fraud, and corruption. The measure’s sponsor, which is the main public employee union, certainly deserves scrutiny. Not to mention that it will heavily subsidize illegal immigrants. California’s taxes are already fairly high compared to other states which is a reason I usually vote against California’s bond measures that are debt.

There other valid argument is that the tax is a slippery slope to seizing wealth from millionaires, and then eventually from the middle class. For instance, the income tax started off as only for the very wealthy but was latter extended to the middle class. While billionaire are a small group, millionaires leaving the State in droves would bankrupt the State. There is also concern that an asset tax sets a dangerous precedent for the government to seize property.

Many argue an asset tax is the only effective way to tax billionaires because they have so many loopholes to avoid income taxes. The problem with relying on just income taxes is that the ultra wealthy can just live off “loans” made against their unrealized capital gains which does not show up as income. Conservatives say that California’s taxes are wildly top-heavy, with the top 1% paying the most, but because of these loopholes the burden is more on the upper middle class rather than the ultra wealthy. Regardless, some European nations have implanted wealth taxes which have had limited effectiveness at generating tax revenue because of capital flight. A one time 5% asset tax on billionaires may generate revenue in the short term but it won’t help much long term. Thus, the wealth tax is not ideal and I would prefer a tobin tax on financial speculation, raising capital gains, and a progressive corporate tax rate.

The strongest argument for the billionaire wealth tax is that billionaires are corrupting politics, which includes lobbying for mass immigration, big tech censorship, and monopolistic corporate practices. While upper middle class people and small businesses hire illegal immigrant, h1b visas in Silicon Valley is largely a billionaire project. For instance, Larry Ellison, who is the richest person in California, is a huge proponent of h1bs and Oracle was accused of favoring foreigners by the Feds. The All-In podcast guys are the ones making the biggest stink about the tax and remember how they were pressuring Trump to be friendlier to “high skilled” immigration. Immigrant tech new money is pushing out the more established White upper middle class out of the Bay Area, so the displaced White demographic would be smart to vote for taxing tech billionaires. This is because the tax could cause Silicon Valley to relocate a lot of their immigrant workforce from the Bay Area to other states like Texas.

Since most California billionaires support Democrats, the tax is good as far as breaking the alliance between Democrats and the ultra wealthy which maintains one party rule. For instance, venture capitalist CEO of Y Combinator, Garry Tan, who is throwing a fit about the proposed tax has been a big Democrat Party donor. While a lot of affluent voters shifted Democrat in response to Trump, the Democratic party is now shifting to the left on economics, with the rise of Mamdani and AOC. Silicon Valley fears a scenario where the Democrats end up like Mamdani and the GOP like Bannon, and this measure pushes things in that direction. However, Gov. Gavin Newsom, who represents the Democratic establishment, opposes the wealth tax.

There is a big push among Silicon Valley elites, including Garry Tan, to primary Ro Khanna in retaliation for his endorsement of the measure. Khanna is an interesting figure because he is very much a product of Silicon Valley’s immigration policies yet is also a populist figure standing up to tech oligarchs. This is indicate of how cutthroat capitalism inevitably backfires and leads to socialism. Basically, billionaires support mass immigration and then the Left organizes the immigrants to come seize their wealth. California’s Democratic party is a top down coalition of the rich and poor but I don’t see how long that coalition can be sustained with soaring income inequality.

The crisis of elite overproduction is why a lot of young people from well off backgrounds support progressive politics. Thus, the moderately wealthy could benefit from having the ultra wealthy out of the way. Not to mention that the ultra wealthy make the moderately wealthy feel poor by comparison. While a different concern from populists who hate the rich, billionaire mega mansions and gated compounds have really harmed the sense of community in wealthy neighborhoods which less wealthy rich people are unhappy about.

Silicon Valley elites are warning that venture capital will dry up for tech and ai. While Silicon Valley can probably survive a billionaire tax, I predict that tech elites will start moving jobs out of California out of spite. Regardless, the slippery slope fallacy is what causes rightwing populists to oppose any redistribution from the oligarchs because they fear the kulaks are next, but they end up cucking for oligarchs and not fighting for their class interests. We are put in this situation where we must chose between oligarchs and bureaucrats who are both bad, thus it is better when they are at odds with each other. The best argument for the tax is not the economic benefits but rather punishing billionaire who have fucked over ordinary people.

-Israel and the US strike Iran again but things de-escalate, like last time, as Iran and Trump refuse to commit to a full blown war

-The situation in Gaza remains the status quo with limited Israeli strikes on Hamas, and Israel allows for limited humanitarian aid

-There is greater civil unrest in the West Bank

-Kurds and Druze attempt a breakaway from Syria with the help of Israel

-The war in Ukraine continues as a stalemate

-Russia carries out drone attacks on NATO member states but it does not escalate to a full blown war between Russia and NATO

-Russia’s economy collapses due to tougher sanctions and global oil prices crashing

-Russia sees xenophobic riots in response to Indian immigration that the Putin regime cracks down on

-Europe’s deteriorating economic situation causes a further rise in nationalism

-There are couple small scale Islamic terror attacks in Europe

-Ethnic sectarian conflicts break out in Pakistan

-Trump invades Venezuela and is successful in the short term.

-There is a greater sectarian conflict in Nigeria between Muslims and Christians

-More Gen Z riots in poorer countries like the one in Nepal breakout

-The Thai/Cambodian conflict is a nothing burger

US Politics

-There are an increasing number of incidents of political violence

-There is a continued resurgence in class based leftism

-In response to low approval ratings and the Epstein scandal, Trump goes hard on mass deportations

-More Republicans start to turn on Trump

-There is a new populist movement that differentiates itself from MAGA

-The GOP civil war continues and more prominent younger conservatives adopt “groyper” types views and old guard GOP types threaten to quit the party if Trump does not denounce them

-There is a blue wave in the mid terms with Democrats winning the House by significant margins and the Senate by narrow margins

-Impeachment hearings begin against Trump in early 2027

-There is a new establishmentarian centrism countering both the groypers and Mamdanis that is astroturfed by billionaires

Economy

-Kevin Hassett is appointed Fed Chair and cuts interest rates to 0%, reigniting inflation in the second half of the year

-A stagflationary recession hits and the AI bubble bursts with a major stock market crash in the fall

-AI data centers cause an energy crisis

-Corporations accelerate automation for their workforce, causing unemployment to rise to 8%

Culture

-Hollywood box offices will continue to flop

-People and independent venues making AI movies will take off

-A lot of normie influencers will adopt Groyper and incel culture ironically

-There is a new movement for more IRL socialization to counter atomization, including a rejection of online dating

Foreign Affairs

-While Israel appears victorious over its adversaries, it has greater economic problems and political turmoil.

Yes

-The Gaza war simmers down and becomes a low intensity occupation, with Israel allowing for some rebuilding and humanitarian efforts by the international community.

Partially true. Rebuilding of Gaza has not officially begun.

-The situation in Syria benefits Israel in the short term but creates problems for Israel in the long term.

Probably true, but too soon to tell.

-Syria devolves into a chaotic Libya-like scenario with ethnic sectarian conflict.

Partially true. Syria is not quite as chaotic as Libya but there is targeted persecutions of minorities, such as Alawites, and there is growing escalation between the Kurds and new Syrian regime.

-Turkey intervenes to prevent a Kurdish state in Syria, and Israel intervenes to help the Kurds, which brings Israel and Turkey close to war but it deescalates.

Partially true but there is no direct conflict between Turkey and Israel.

-Iraqi Kurds declare nationhood.

No

-The fall of Iran and the Shia sphere and spillover from Syria lead to a Sunni vs Shia civil war in Iraq.

No

-Turkey and Azerbaijan attack Armenia proper, in an attempt to create a corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, exploiting the decline of Armenia’s allies, Russia and Iran.

No, the US brokered a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, allowing Azerbaijan their corridor through Armenia.

-Iran collapses politically and economically with mass civil unrest and a rise in ethnic separatism.

Mostly no, but there is limited ethnic sectarianism.

-There is a sectarian conflict along the borders of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, involving Baloch and Pashtun separatists/the Taliban.

Mostly no, but there is limited ethnic sectarianism.

-Terrorism and sectarian conflict continue to accelerate in West Africa’s Sahel Region.

True

-With the ongoing civil war, Sudan has one of the worst famines in modern history.

Partially true. Sudan is still in conflict and famine though things aren’t as bad this year as 2024.

-Mozambique collapses with a refugee crisis that destabilizes South Africa.

Partially true

-Europe has another major terror attack.

No major attacks but there was an Islamic terrorist attack on a synagogue in Manchester, UK, in October 2025, that resulted in at least two fatalities.

-There is a further rise of nationalism in Europe, with nationalists taking power in several European nations, including the AFD in Germany.

Yes. Conservative nationalist, Karol Nawrocki, won the presidency in Poland and the AFD had a strong showing though did not “take power.”

-Trump negotiates an end to the Ukraine war, allowing Russia to keep Crimea and Donetsk.

Trump attempted something like this but failed.

-Ukraine agrees not to join NATO but is allowed limited military protection and is allowed to join the EU.

No

-Putin agrees to the truce, in part, to thank Trump for cutting funding to NATO.

No

-There are mass protests and civil unrest in Russia due to a lack of a decisive victory in Ukraine, and Russia’s economic situation.

No

-China has the greatest protests and civil unrest since Tiananmen Square in 1989.

No

-China puts invading Taiwan on hold.

Yes

-Trump enacts sanctions on Latin American nations that refuse to accept back migrants, which greatly harms their economies.

Partially yes, but mostly just with Venezuela which is a staunch US adversary.

-Trump does limited military incursions into Mexico to deal with the cartels.

Trump has proposed striking cartels this year but so far it has not happened.

-Argentina’s Javier Milei gets inflation under control and prevents an economic crash, but income inequality gets much worse.

Argentina’s rate of inflation has significantly decreased but their economy is still in bad shape needing to be bailed out.

US Politics

-There is little to no civil unrest after Trump’s inauguration, with protests tepid compared to 2016 and the 2020 Summer of Floyd.

True

-There is a political civil war among Democrats, right after Trump’s inauguration, between progressives and neoliberals.

No. Democrats are now more unified against Trump though the progressive neoliberal divide will probably show up in midterm primaries.

-There is another movement like Occupy Wall Street, along with a resurgence in class based leftism.

Yes, such as the election of Mamdani in NYC.

-Wokeness and overt anti-Whiteness will decline superficially but remain dormant and resurge again in the future due to indoctrination in education.

True

-Despite the decline in wokeness, there are mass protests against Trump’s deportations.

True

-AOC emerges as a greater player in the Democrat Party but leans more into an economic message while not totally abandoning woke identity politics.

True

-The Democrats’ pivot to the left on economics causes them to lose some support from the ultra wealthy and upper middle class Never Trumpers.

Partially true, though the focus is more on opposing Trump and the Democrats are not in power. However, I predict a backlash among the wealthy against the rise of Mamdani types in the near future.

-There is a new realignment where Democrats are more for regulating Big Tech and AI while Trump is for more deregulation.

True

-Trump embraces tech/AI acceleration which backfires in a major crisis.

No

-Trump’s fight with the Deep State is messy and chaotic, and he backs down somewhat and tries to find a compromise with the FBI and CIA.

Trump made some peace with the Deep State and was likely blackmailed over Epstein.

-Elon Musk’s DOGE has some success but Trump and Musk and Vivek have a disagreement over austerity cuts on Social Security and Medicaid.

No, Trump supportered austerity in signing the Big Beautiful Bill.

-The growing tension among MAGA between the Tech Right and Nationalist Populists over legal immigration causes a huge rift that culminates in the GOP midterm congressional primaries.

Mostly true. Too soon to tell with primaries but it is showing up in the GOP civil war.

-Trump initially favors the Tech Right but then tries to play to both sides.

Mostly True but Trump has done some half ass measures on restricting h1b visas.

-The GOP house proposes a merit based immigration bill that fails due to the divide on immigration policy.

No

-Trump’s reduces new migrant border crossings by about 70%.

Yes.

-Trump is successful in deporting criminal aliens and illegal immigrants with existing deportation orders but the courts block him from deporting non criminal migrants who were admitted under Biden’s parole program.

Mostly true, but it is more just incompetency than obstruction.

-Trump has some policy successes using executive action on immigration and other issues.

Partially true

-Republicans in Congress are too disorganized to govern well.

True

-There is a Democrat victory in the 2026 midterms, by toning down wokeness and running more candidates focused on economic populism.

Too early to tell.

-Democrats run a slate of Latino candidates with an economic populist message to counter Trump’s inroads among Latinos.

This looks to likely be true.

-Trump’s approval ratings plummet due to the economy.

True

-MAGA becomes demoralized and disappointed in Trump.

True, such as Marjorie Taylor Green turning on Trump and the GOP civil war.

-Many disillusioned MAGA look to more radical politics from Christian Nationalism to White Nationalism and Red State secessionism.

True

-In a desperate attempt to save his floundering presidency, Trump pivots to the center on economic, environmental, and social issues, while remaining hawkish on immigration.

No

-Trump shows openness to work with the majority Democrat Congress on certain measures, but Democrats are too obstructionist.

No

-The 2028 GOP primary election is between RFK Jr., Ron DeSantis, and J.D. Vance.

Too soon to tell

-Vance wins the GOP nomination but loses to a Josh Shapiro/Wes Moore ticket.

Too soon to tell

-Shapiro initially repairs the division between neoliberals and progressives and is lauded as a new FDR but struggles to maintain that coalition as president.

Too soon to tell

-MAGA is diminished after the end of Trump’s 2nd term, and the GOP reinvents itself as a more centrist party, albeit somewhat nationalistic with some similarities to Europe’s Christian Democrat parties.

Too soon to tell

Economy

-There is a stock market crash in January of 2025.

No

-Recessionary signals come in hard in the first quarter of 2025 but a recession is not officially declared due to GDP stats.

Mostly true.

-Trump’s personal and corporate tax cuts stimulate the economy, temporarily delaying the recession, and creating another bull market in the summer of 25’.

Mostly true, though the summer bull market was more because of the AI bubble.

-Despite Trump’s corporate tax cuts, corporations accelerate automation for their workforce.

Probably true but too soon to tell.

-Due to concerns about inflation re-surging, the Fed is cautious about rate cuts.

The Fed is cutting rates albeit cautiously.

-This pause in Fed rate cuts further strengthens the Dollar, which combined with Trump’s trade war, causes other nations’ economies to crash.

Too soon to tell

-The economies of China, Japan, the European Union, the UK, and Canada continue to deteriorate into depressionary conditions.

Partially true but not quite depressionary

-Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs combined cause a big wave of inflation in late 2025 and into 2026.

Partially true

-Trump backs down on certain tariffs while keeping others.

True

-There is a stagflation crisis or inflationary recession in 2026 and 2027.

Partially true. Milder stagflationary trend but not full blown 70s type stagflation crisis.

Culture/Social

-People ironically embrace a new gilded age in the culture.

Only if you count Trump’s Great Gatsby themed ball at Mar a Lago.

-More rightwing and anti-establishment people get involved in cultural endeavors.

Yes

-Interior aesthetics and architecture continue to move away from 2010s minimalism, with more color and retro inspiration.

Yes

-Social isolation and mental health issues continue to get much worse, with mainstream politicians starting to talk more about policy solutions.

Yes, Scott Galloway is constantly being interviewed by mainstream media about young male crisis.

-More mainstream political figures start talking about declining birthrates as a civilization crisis.

Yes, though the issue is still very right coded

-Sociologists start discussing the traits of Gen Alpha as being more exuberant than GenZ.

Yes, but more online than sociologists.

-Alt-Right, incel, and 4Chan memes are referenced more in pop culture.

Yes

-Movies do poorly at the box office due to declining interest from GenZ and people getting burnt out from CGI films.

Yes, 2025 has been a very tough year for movie box offices.

In response to the rise of the Groypers, Vivek Ramaswamy, wrote an NYT op-ed on American identity. Vivek defines being an American as those who “believe in the rule of law, in freedom of conscience and freedom of expression, in colorblind meritocracy, in the U.S. Constitution, in the American dream, and if you are a citizen who swears exclusive allegiance to our nation.” Vivek pushed back against Heritage Americans in that “No matter your ancestry, if you wait your turn and obtain citizenship, you are every bit as American as a Mayflower descendant, as long as you subscribe to the creed of the American founding and the culture that was born of it. This is what makes American exceptionalism possible.” He also says that the rising identitarian strain on the Right is no different than woke identity politics, much like the woke right meme. Even if we agree upon equal legal rights for all citizens, the idea that Heritage Americans have some special social or cultural status really irks Vivek and his ilk.

Vivek is engaging in black and white thinking of either you are fully American or you are not American at all. In contrast, I promote a hierarchical pluralism in which there is a spectrum or hierarchy of being American which is ironically more Hindu while Vivek is adopting Abrahamic moral absolutism. Just because I reject America as a proposition nation does not mean I consider America to be a White ethnostate either. Rather, Whites need to be the core and Heritage Americans have a special status. A Heritage American of colonial ancestry is more American than an Irish or German American whose family immigrated in the mid 19th Century, who is more American than an Italian, Polish, or Jewish Ellis Islander, who is more American than a Chicano whose family came under the Bracero program in the 1950s, who in turn is more American than Vivek. I personally have some heritage American, including revolutionary war ancestry, but also latter Ellis Islander ancestry. Black Americans are very different from White Americans yet there is an understanding that Black American culture is uniquely American. The counterpart of Heritage Americans, are Foundational Black Americans, who came about as a response to Nigerian immigrants grifting off of Black American victimhood.

American identity has always had this dualism, where yes it is credal, but also had an undertone of what an American looks like and is like culturally. America’s civic nationalism operated under an implicit assumption that America was majority White. Thus, conservatives who claim America is purely a credal nation are essentially liberals. America’s demographics are changing rapidly with gen Z and especially gen alpha being heavily non-White, which is creating an identity crisis for America. There is an argument that we need a new version of civic nationalism that is adapted to this demographic future but Vivek is not honest enough to say that because it would piss off right leaning Whites. Proposing a Singapore style management of a racially diverse society doesn’t quite inspire a sense of American exceptionalism.

While the Founding Fathers created a nation based on principles, they considered those principles uniquely Anglo and excluded groups which they did not view as compatible. Benjamin Franklin did not even consider Germans to be compatible with America. Ellis Islander civic nationalism is more about worship of institutions rather than the frontier spirit, thus Ellis Islanders despite being White had very different values from Anglos. Not to mention that the post World War II paradigm is quite different than the founders’ vision.

I don’t think being more American necessarily implies inherent moral value. For instance, a recent immigrant could be an exceptionally decent person but that does not make them more American than a heritage American who is a degenerate, like an Antifa with Mayflower ancestry. I dislike Elizabeth Warren politically but she is still far more American than Vivek. I’ve even heard a take that immigrants are more American than people who have been here longer because immigrants go through this process to strive to become Americans which is utterly insane.

I am hearing takes like Vivek’s more from Indians rather than Hispanics, Arabs, or even East Asians. This is because there is rising resentment against Indians who are rising to elite positions, thus they feel a need to justify their elite status under America’s civil religion, like Jews did in the post war era. India is such a cutthroat society that Indians do well in American capitalism, often outcompeting White Americans. Thus, you hear from Indians online that they are more American than White people who support socialism because they can’t compete. This take is ironic because Hindus have a hereditary caste system, which maybe makes sense in India, but there is hypocrisy in accusing Heritage Americans of desiring to create a hereditary caste system for America. I respect the position of someone like , which is basically that he is an ally to Heritage Americans but acknowledges that he is a different tribe and doesn’t try to pretend that he is as American as a Mayflower descendent.

Ben Shapiro has been going after young White male victimhood, and telling them to basically pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Shapiro’s remarks are inline with Vivek calling Americans lazy and thus need to adopt a culture more like Indian strivers, which are different from American values which he claims to represent. There was a recent article in Compact Magazine, The Lost Generation, that revealed how much millennial White males were systemically discriminated against in Hollywood and corporate America. Young men on the Right are not going to sit back and pretend that Trump has defeated woke, so we can just go back to business as usual, and the only solution for them is to work harder. This is part of a broader civil war on the Right and an attempted power grab by the GOP establishment, in response to the radical shift among young right leaning men in a more ethnocentric nationalistic direction but also more skeptical of free market capitalism.

People with a long family history in America have these stories and shared experiences in America that recent immigrants just don’t have. The idea that your ancestry doesn’t matter is utterly nihilistic and tabula rasa blank slatism. This also applies to telling immigrants they have to assimilate and basically severe ties from their ancestors. This idea that you have no birthright to what your ancestors created leads to either leftist egalitarianism, that we are all the same, or us just being an economic zone where we are slaves to corporations. Patriotism should be more for the land and your ancestors than for existing American institutions.

Vivek’s stance is gross and in some ways worst than the woke left because it cheapens being an American to just like purchasing a brand or getting hired to a job. Since Trump won Ohio by 11 points, if Vivek looses the governorship to the Democrats, it would be a blow to that ideology and the hyper-capitalist strain in the GOP. Ohio is one of the most Heritage American and least immigrant heavy states without the optimism of the Sunbelt. Immigrants and the children of immigrants should not be dictating how America defines itself.

Photo credit: Robert Stark

Progressive San Francisco Supervisor, Jackie Fielder, proposed stricter zoning rules for AI research and development, pushing back against the tech industry’s impact on city planning, which Venture Capitalist Y Combinator CEO, Garry Tan views as a threat to the industry and SF economy. In response, to a critique from a techie, Fielder, protested that 9,000 Latinos have been displaced from the Mission by “entitled techno absolutists."

Because Fielder made it about race, the counter responses included the Left sounds like nativists but against Whites or that the Left wants Latinos to own The Mission as a hereditary fiefdom. Those challenging Fielder were making the point that Whites (Irish and Italians) used to occupy the Mission long before Latinos did, thus are ironically defending Whites as being there first. One of these responses was from journalist, Lee Fang, who is a left leaning populist and class reductionist, but is perhaps unintentionally making an argument often used by neoliberals. Basically, the essence of neoliberalism is that a place only belongs to individuals or institutions and not demographics with no birthright to where you were raised, which creates deracination and atomization.

Even if Fielder didn’t directly reference White people, the twitter for SF Progressives did, as Whites are always the Left’s scapegoat for gentrification. In reality, a large portion of the techies moving into The Mission are Asian rather than White. The process of gentrification in the Mission started with artists moving in first, then Hipsters, and then techies. I have a Mexican American contact in the Bay Area and he told that there are few Chicanos left in SF, and that The Mission is overwhelmingly recent migrants from Central and South America, so it is not like they have strong ancestral claim to The Mission. Latinos are just more openly resentful about being dispossessed than Bay Area Whites who are hyper individualistic. Regardless, I am fine with letting Latinos own the Mission as their fiefdom under the condition that Whites are also allowed to practice enclavism.

The two main political forces in Bay Area politics are progressives, like Jackie Fielder, and Silicon Valley neoliberals who are more YIMBY, like Garry Tary. Even if I am sympathetic to some YIMBY policies that increase housing supply, their philosophy is inherently neoliberal in that no demographic has any neighborhood sovereignty, whether it is BIPOC complaining about White gentrifiers or White suburbs being colonized by tech immigrants, like I discussed in my recent article on the AI real estate boom. In contrast, progressive, Fielder, is a left-nimby who voted against legislation to up-zone SF on anti-gentrification grounds.

There is some appeal of Asians to neoliberalism because they don’t fit into America’s dichotomy between the old heritage White America versus BIPOC grievance culture. Asians are driving both demographic growth in the Bay Area and are economically upwardly mobile, thus have a more optimistic politics than either Whites or BIPOC. There is a faction of the Left that resents Asians for being more successful, thus going against the poc victim narrative, yet Asians may also perceive the Right as too xenophobic. I have heard an argument that White progressives cynically promote BIPOCs to limit Asian opportunities to elite positions, such as leftwing SF politicians ending meritocratic admissions at majority Asian, Lowell High. However, there is some degree of hypocrisy in that Asians and Indians practice enclavism which contradicts the neoliberal worship of colorblind meritocracy.

Bay Area Race Map

Source: Nickan’s substack

Red-White Green-Asian, Orange-Latino, Purple- Black

The Bay Area’s White and Black populations are declining, Latinos are stable to stagnant, with Asians the only demographic that has significant growth, which is primarily linked to tech. The only way to maintain demographic balance between Whites, Asians, and Latinos, is to carve up the Bay Area into a network of ethnically autonomous enclaves. For instance, Asians would get most of Silicon Valley, the southern half of the East Bay, as well as enclaves in SF and Oakland. There could also be a separate Hapa enclave in the Peninsula. The best candidate for White enclaves are Marin and Central Contra Costa County, as well as Black and Hispanic enclaves in the East Bay. Enclavism is needed because of how uniquely hyper-competitive the Bay Area is, which is also a template for a post-American future.

I initially hoped that White enclavism could emerge from multiculturalism, coinciding immigrant enclaves, “if you can’t beat them, join them”. Not to mention that the extreme woke are segregationists for BIPOC, such as universities having BIPOC only dorms. However, I was naive about the Left allowing for anything remotely pro-White. Since enclavism for Whites is outside the Overton window, the best case scenario is for California’s White areas to stay majority White for the time being, and hopefully enclavism is normalized in a few decades. Regardless, Leftists going all the way and proclaiming places like The Mission, as only for BIPOC, might open a window for White enclaves.

source: @charliebilello on X

Trump’s Liberation Day was very bearish for markets but since he went taco, the summer was fairly bullish. This Fall has seen record highs for the S&P, coinciding a gradual weakening in the labor market. Layoffs have hit the highest level since the pandemic with the unemployment rate hitting 4.6%. 95% of Black Friday purchases were financed by debt. Not to mention that high income consumers are propping up the economy because of stocks. The tariffs are slowing down the economy, albeit not as catastrophic as many were predicting, which is because Trump backed down on the most draconian tariffs.

The Fed recently accounted that it is going to be purchasing $40 billion in treasury bills a month, which is basically a return to Quantitative Easing, albeit QE light. However, they are not calling it QE after a tightening cycle. The Fed returning to QE and cutting interest rates while they failed to meet inflation targets, shows that the economy is unhealthy. The question is whether planned rate cuts and QE are enough to provide liquidity for financial markets without causing inflation.

source: @BossBlunts1 on X

There was brief bond market volatility, early November, when financial conditions stopped easing and credit spreads widened. Bank reserves were dropping over the past few months due to quantitative tightening. This was because debt servicing is higher when Fed rates are high, which if continued could cause a liquidity credit crises. Also, the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility being drained to nearly empty was causing liquidity problem for financial markets. This return to QE, which entails expanding the Fed balance sheet and buying short term bonds, will temporarily ease deteriorating financial conditions. The pressure on the banking system and treasury is the real reason that the Fed is cutting rates.

Source: @KobeissiLetter on X

Japan is hitting their debt endgame as bond yields have surged to multi year highs. Investors are worried that Japan can’t handle a debt ratio that already consumes 1/3 of their taxes in interest payments which could soon go to 2/3. Thus, Japan may have to return to interest rate repression to save their bond market, which they recently abandoned, since their debt can’t function as rates rise. Since the yen carry trade is a major source of global liquidity, Japan’s bond markets will have a domino effect on global bond and liquidity markets. If Japan’s bond market crashes, they could dump $3 trillion of US assets, including treasury bonds.

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