ATP Lottery Matches

It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2026-03-30

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPWPointDiff
2026-01-05United CupFHubert HurkaczStan Wawrinka6-3 3-6 6-30.9951.2%+4
2026-01-05United CupQFStefanos TsitsipasTaylor Fritz6-4 7-50.9851.7%+4
2026-01-05United CupQFAlex De MinaurHubert Hurkacz6-4 4-6 6-40.9951.9%+7
2026-01-05United CupRRTaylor FritzJaume Munar7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(6)0.9748.7%-6
2026-01-05United CupRRSebastian BaezTaylor Fritz4-6 7-5 6-41.0050.2%+1
2026-01-05United CupRRSebastian BaezJaume Munar6-4 6-40.9951.2%+3
2026-01-05United CupRRFlavio CobolliStan Wawrinka6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(4)1.0149.8%-1
2026-01-05United CupRRStan WawrinkaArthur Rinderknech5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.8748.9%-5
2026-01-04BrisbaneR16Aleksandar KovacevicCameron Norrie7-6(4) 4-6 6-40.8749.8%-1
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32Cameron NorrieUgo Humbert1-6 7-6(6) 7-50.9348.8%-5
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardTommy Paul7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(6)0.7047.6%-10
2026-01-05Hong KongR16Coleman WongGabriel Diallo1-6 7-5 7-50.9749.3%-3
2026-01-05Hong KongR16Juncheng ShangLorenzo Sonego6-3 6-40.9854.4%+10
2026-01-12AdelaideR32Valentin VacherotMiomir Kecmanovic7-6(5) 6-40.9550.7%+2
2026-01-12AdelaideR32Aleksandar VukicStefanos Tsitsipas7-6(3) 7-6(5)0.8149.1%-3
2026-01-12AucklandQFMarcos GironLuciano Darderi1-6 7-5 6-40.9248.1%-7
2026-01-12AucklandQFFabian MarozsanEliot Spizzirri6-4 2-6 6-20.9248.9%-3
2026-01-12AucklandR16Luciano DarderiAlejandro Tabilo1-6 7-5 6-30.9849.7%-1
2026-01-12AucklandR16Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardCameron Norrie4-6 6-3 7-6(4)0.8049.7%-1
2026-01-12AucklandR32Sebastian BaezEmilio Nava4-6 7-5 6-30.9850.7%+3
2026-01-12AucklandR32Nuno BorgesTomas Martin Etcheverry7-5 3-6 7-6(2)0.7848.7%-5
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128Michael ZhengSebastian Korda6-4 6-4 3-6 6-7(0) 6-30.8048.4%-10
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128Alexandre MullerAlexei Popyrin2-6 6-3 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)0.8847.9%-13
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128Jaime FariaAlexander Blockx6-3 3-6 6-3 6-40.9950.9%+4
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128Jakub MensikPablo Carreno Busta7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6(1) 6-30.9649.9%-1
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128Karen KhachanovAlex Michelsen4-6 6-4 6-3 5-7 6-30.9550.9%+6
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128James DuckworthDino Prizmic7-6(4) 3-6 1-6 7-5 6-30.9449.0%-7
2026-01-19Australian OpenR64Tomas MachacStefanos Tsitsipas6-4 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)1.0050.4%+2
2026-01-19Australian OpenR32Jannik SinnerEliot Spizzirri4-6 6-3 6-4 6-40.9850.4%+2
2026-01-19Australian OpenSFNovak DjokovicJannik Sinner3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-40.7847.9%-12
2026-02-02MontpellierSFAdrian MannarinoMartin Damm1-6 6-3 6-40.8949.6%-1
2026-02-02MontpellierQFAdrian MannarinoArthur Gea5-7 6-4 6-40.9950.0%0
2026-02-02MontpellierR32Stan WawrinkaHamad Medjedovic7-6(3) 6-40.9951.1%+3
2026-02-02MontpellierR32Pablo Carreno BustaMiomir Kecmanovic4-6 6-3 7-6(4)0.8748.7%-5
2026-02-09Buenos AiresR16Tomas Martin EtcheverryRoman Andres Burruchaga7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-40.9949.8%-1
2026-02-09Buenos AiresR32Camilo Ugo CarabelliFrancisco Comesana6-4 7-6(3)0.9951.0%+3
2026-02-09DallasFBen SheltonTaylor Fritz3-6 6-3 7-50.8148.8%-4
2026-02-09DallasSFBen SheltonDenis Shapovalov4-6 6-4 7-6(4)0.9850.0%0
2026-02-09DallasQFTaylor FritzSebastian Korda6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(5)0.8749.3%-3
2026-02-09DallasQFDenis ShapovalovAlejandro Davidovich Fokina5-7 6-4 6-31.0050.3%+1
2026-02-09DallasR16Jack Pinnington JonesEliot Spizzirri7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(4)0.8248.8%-5
2026-02-09RotterdamSFAlex De MinaurUgo Humbert6-4 6-30.8950.8%+2
2026-02-09RotterdamR16Alexander BublikJan Lennard Struff7-6(2) 4-6 6-30.9250.5%+2
2026-02-09RotterdamR32Alexander BublikHubert Hurkacz6-7(2) 7-6(1) 7-50.9950.9%+4
2026-02-16Delray BeachQFLearner TienFrances Tiafoe7-6(5) 3-6 7-50.9749.2%-3
2026-02-16Delray BeachR16Casper RuudMarcos Giron4-6 7-6(6) 6-40.9149.7%-1
2026-02-16Delray BeachR32Zachary SvajdaAleksandar Kovacevic7-6(4) 6-30.8153.1%+9
2026-02-16DohaSFArthur FilsJakub Mensik6-4 7-6(4)0.9952.1%+6
2026-02-16DohaQFJakub MensikJannik Sinner7-6(3) 2-6 6-30.9849.1%-3
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroFTomas Martin EtcheverryAlejandro Tabilo3-6 7-6(3) 6-40.9649.1%-4
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroR32Ignacio BuseIgor Ribeiro Marcondes4-6 7-5 6-40.8950.3%+1
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroR32Tomas Martin EtcheverryFrancisco Comesana3-6 6-3 6-40.9749.7%-1
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroR32Vilius GaubasLuis Guto Miguel6-3 2-6 6-20.9248.2%-6
2026-02-16Rio de JaneiroR32Damir DzumhurPedro Martinez0-6 7-6(5) 6-40.8446.5%-12
2026-02-23AcapulcoSFFlavio CobolliMiomir Kecmanovic7-6(5) 3-6 6-40.9148.2%-7
2026-02-23AcapulcoSFFrances TiafoeBrandon Nakashima3-6 7-6(6) 6-40.8747.8%-9
2026-02-23AcapulcoR16Frances TiafoeAleksandar Kovacevic6-4 3-6 7-6(7)1.0549.7%-1
2026-02-23DubaiSFTallon GriekspoorAndrey Rublev7-5 7-6(6)0.8750.0%0
2026-02-23DubaiR16Arthur RinderknechJack Draper7-5 6-7(4) 6-40.9149.8%-1
2026-02-23SantiagoR16Sebastian BaezCristian Garin7-6(2) 1-6 7-50.9249.5%-2
2026-02-23SantiagoR32Elmer MollerRoman Andres Burruchaga7-6(4) 0-6 6-40.8846.9%-12
2026-02-23SantiagoR32Thiago Agustin TiranteIgnacio Buse2-6 7-6(0) 7-6(2)1.0149.8%-1
2026-02-23SantiagoR32Francisco ComesanaPedro Martinez6-4 2-6 7-6(4)0.9648.4%-6
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR16Jack DraperNovak Djokovic4-6 6-4 7-6(5)0.9549.7%-1
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR64Jakub MensikMarcos Giron7-5 7-6(4)0.9651.0%+3
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128Juan Manuel CerundoloBotic Van De Zandschulp7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-30.9750.9%+4
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR128Dino PrizmicTristan Schoolkate7-6(5) 3-6 7-50.9348.7%-5
2026-03-18Miami MastersSFJannik SinnerAlexander Zverev6-3 7-6(4)0.9451.4%+4
2026-03-18Miami MastersQFArthur FilsTommy Paul6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)0.9049.8%-1
2026-03-18Miami MastersR16Martin LandaluceSebastian Korda2-6 7-6(6) 6-40.9049.2%-3
2026-03-18Miami MastersR16Frances TiafoeTerence Atmane6-4 1-6 6-40.9348.4%-5
2026-03-18Miami MastersR32Terence AtmaneFelix Auger Aliassime6-3 1-6 6-30.9050.3%+1
2026-03-18Miami MastersR32Frances TiafoeJakub Mensik7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(11)0.8048.9%-5
2026-03-18Miami MastersR64Quentin HalysAlejandro Davidovich Fokina7-6(8) 6-40.8749.7%-1
2026-03-18Miami MastersR64Marin CilicBrandon Nakashima2-6 6-4 7-6(7)1.0049.7%-1
2026-03-18Miami MastersR128Camilo Ugo CarabelliGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard2-6 6-3 7-6(3)0.7948.3%-6
2026-03-18Miami MastersR128Roberto Bautista AgutJames Duckworth7-6(3) 7-6(4)0.9450.9%+3
2026-03-18Miami MastersR128Moise KouameZachary Svajda5-7 6-4 6-40.9250.2%+1