BigCityLib Strikes Back

They lost their satellite, and now one of their scientists, Dr. Richard B. Hoover, who seems to have a fairly impressive CV, is claiming that he's found evidence of ET in the remnants of comets that have fallen to Earth in Antarctica. It's not a crazy thought. Panspermia is in fact an old idea. The problem is that he's publishing his findings in The Journal of Cosmology, not Nature or Science or anything well-known like that. That's a screencap of their homepage below:

Yeah. Looks nutz, doesn't it? Note the paper about "Sex On Mars".

I emailed James Hansen re his position in the NASA Hierarchy with respect to John S. Theon circa 1990. He was kind enough to respond as follows:

M.J.,

John Theon never had any supervisory authority over me.

I remember that he was in the bureaucracy at NASA Headquarters, but I cannot recall having any interactions with him. His claim of association is misleading, to say the least.

What he can legitimately say is that he had a reasonably high position in the Headquarters bureaucracy. A job in that bureaucracy is not considered to be a plum, so we should probably be grateful that somebody is willing to do it, and I don't particularly want to kick the fellow around.

You should investigate his scientific contributions to evaluate the degree to which his opinions might be listened to.

Of course you are free to quote me.

Jim Hansen

Meanwhile, a bit of digging (and about $3.00 Cdn, so someone owes me a beer) brings up this Washington Times story from 1990. In it, John Theon is referred to as a "NASA climate program chief" and, once again, does NOT come across as an AGW sceptic:

March 30, 1990 Section: A Edition: 2 Page: A1 Byline: By Ronald A. Taylor THE WASHINGTON TIMES TWT Illustration: Chart, NO PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING, By Henry Christopher/The Washington Times

Satellites taking the most precise global temperature measurements ever have found no evidence of global warming from the "greenhouse effect" during the last decade, according to a National Aeronautics and Space Administration analysis. The data, collected from 1979 through 1988 by the TIROS-N series of weather satellites, proved that the Earth's temperature can be measured accurately by instruments probing the atmosphere from space, two scientists say in a paper to be published today in Science.

The study also provides a glimpse from space of global temperatures during the period 1979-88 - one of the hottest decades, with six of the warmest years on record.

"We found that the Earth's atmosphere goes through fairly large year-to-year changes in temperature and over that 10-year period we saw no long-term warming or cooling trend," said Roy W. Spencer of the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala, study co-author.

But co-author John Christy, a climate research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, cautioned against misuse of the findings. "About the long-term global warming it does not say anything," he said. "It says for this particular snapshot you are not able to find it, but that does not mean that it is not occurring or that within a few more years we might be able to actually see it."

He added: "This does not prove that there is not a global warming. If these data are used in any kind of anti-environment statement, then I will be tremendously disappointed." He said other aspects of the environment are being affected by an excess of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Instead of measuring surface temperatures, the satellites read temperatures in the troposphere, roughly 20,000 feet above the surface, as they spun around the globe 14 times a day. Looking at chunks of the atmosphere 100 miles wide and six miles deep, the satellites were able to collect usually unavailable data from water surfaces.

Most other studies of temperature trends, some extending over more than a century, have come from the records of ground-based thermometers. These readings did not reflect the global temperature because they did not include the huge area covered by oceans.

The TIROS data also detected a cooling in the tropics from 1984 to 1986 and a "warm event" in the northern hemisphere during 1987 and 1988. On a global basis, the study found, the warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983 and 1980. The coolest years were 1984, 1985 and 1986.

The findings quickly became part of growing skepticism over the need for an immediate end to the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels. "It merely confirms something that people who've examined the records have known for a long time - that it did not warm up in the 1980s," said University of Virginia climatologist Patrick Michaels. "When are we going to come down on the side of reason and logic? That's what I want to know. . . . The policy cart is way ahead of the science horse on this."

Emissions from burning fossil fuels are linked to what scientists describe as the greenhouse effect. If the planet's atmosphere is overloaded by those gases, scientists and environmentalists worry, global warming could disrupt life on Earth.

While opponents of quick action to control the greenhouse effect insisted that the study buttresses their case, climate scientists questioned the length of the study. "Ten years is not long enough," said NASA climate program chief John Theon.

Mr. Christy said he does not expect conclusive statistical evidence of global warming until the turn of the century.

"The climate may never be affected by the greenhouse effect," he said. "However, there are enough other things that are part of our own biological system that we must pay attention to what we are doing to the environment.

"The atmospheric composition is changing. Carbon dioxide is increasing, chlorofluorocarbons are increasing, other pollutants are increasing. We are losing our forests around the world. The environmental concerns are tremendous."

Global temperature is not the sole indicator of global warming, said World Resources Institute climate expert James McKenzie. "It's not that any year is going to be totally different, it's just that more and more often you're going to get hotter summers, more drought on average, more storms," he said. "It's a matter of `You bet your climate.' Which way do you want to bet?"

The climate changes may occur far more quickly, some atmospheric scientists say. Analysis of air trapped inside glaciers shows that past ice ages occurred very quickly, said Walter Broecker, climatology professor at Columbia University.

There is evidence from past glaciation that strongly suggests the climate change came "in large jumps," he said, adding: "We think that these are due to reorganizations of the ocean-atmospheric system. One of the things we have to think about for the future is that this kind of thing might occur."

****CHART
NO PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING
Both ground temperatures and readings from the government's TIROS-N satellite from the 1979-1988 period show no conclusive global warming trend.
The satellite study confirmed wide variations in average temperatures during that period. Adding to the confusion, wide variations in temperature extremes occurred during the decade with record years for heat occuring in 1987, 1988, 1983 and 1980. The coolest years were 1984, 1985 and 1986.

When George Bush announced his "Return To The Moon" proposal in the midst of the 2004 election campaign, it sank like a rock from the American collective consciousness. Some felt the whole idea of building a Lunar base in preparation for a Mars Mission was a distraction; some felt that revisiting 30 year old achievements was about as exciting as looking at your wife's knees (ie. not very); and some felt the purpose of the proposal was merely to be a proposal, a political tool Bush could whip out whenever he was accused of being anti science.

Turns out we were all right. The Bush plan is "starting to crumble" from a lack of funding and a lack of enthusiasm among both the public and space planners:

It's becoming painfully obvious that the Moon is not a stepping-stone for manned Mars operations but is instead a stumbling block," says Robert Farquhar, a veteran of planning and operating planetary and deep-space missions.

[...]

[The Planetary Society] is co-hosting the invitation-only VSE replanning session with Stanford. A lot of people going to the meeting believe "the Moon is so yesterday," says [Lou] Friedman, head of [The Planetary Society].

"It just does not feel right. And there's growing belief that, at high cost, it offers minimal engineering benefit for later manned Mars operations."

Exactly. You didn't even need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

As an alternative, a growing corps of scientists, engineers and astronauts is arguing that, once Bush is gone out the door, efforts should be directed towards an Asteroid mission, a mission to the LaGrange points, and a "direct to Mars" project.

As with so many things Bush-related, the early OOs will turn out have been wasted time for NASA and the American space effort.