Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington. Show all posts

Thursday, December 8, 2011

ONI and individual state temperatures

The influence that sea surface temperatures have on land temperatures and climate is an ongoing debate, and I mentioned this somewhat in my last post on this topic. However, in looking back over that post it was perhaps too general an approach to look at the impact of the El Niño events over the large scale of the West Coast, and thereon East. Given that effects were, as I showed, more regionalized and remembering that we are in a La Nina winter, I’ll just repeat the anticipated effect plot from Kumar, et al.

Impacts of a La Nina winter (after Kumar et al).

The disadvantage of using the regional average can be seen just in the US West Coast. At the upper end the season is cooler and wetter, while down in the south it is drier and warmer – the average might well be “no change.” So since we have the individual state temperatures for the period I looked at last time, I thought it might be interesting, before looking at other Oscillations, to just check how this event correlated on a more localized basis.

The ONI plot from 1950 (GGWeather )

It is logical to start on the West Coast, and given that the predicted impact this winter will be on the upper Northwest, the first comparison is with Washington State. For now I am going to use the homogenized data set, rather than the TOBS data, though I may come back later to look at how that changes things. (This is the fun of doing this without an agenda, we don’t need to have the data fit any pattern, so it is more informative to look at options).


The ONI plot overlain on a plot of Washington state temperatures.

It can be seen that while there was some correlation, in places, overall the agreement is not very good.

The other states that seem to be most impacted are the southern tier, that would include California, Arizona, and possibly New Mexico and Texas . From the regional comparison the Pacific SST effects seem to weaken somewhat once one gets over the Rockies, hence the caution as to how far we might expect the impact along the South Coast – so we shall see.

Turning first to California, recognize in the beginning that with the state being as long as it is, there are internal temperature variations along the state, Overlaying the ONI plot on the relevant part of the California temperature curve:

Relation of California temperatures to ONI temperature anomalies

My sense is that the correlation is a bit better, but still lacking. So let’s try the Arizona comparison:

Relation of Arizona temperatures to ONI temperature anomalies.

There does seem to be more of a correlation here, than with the earlier comparisons.

Moving on to New Mexico, and the same superimposition:

Relation of New Mexico temperatures to ONI

Well what correlation there was in the first states seems to be getting less here, lets try Texas.

Relation of Texas temperatures to ONI

Well, using that well known calibrated eyeball, it would appear that the correlation seems to get worse as one moves away from the Pacific.

Well this wasn’t totally what I was expecting, though I mentioned at the top that I suspected that the effect might not reach as far as New Mexico. so I think I will cogitate a little more on this before venturing an opinion. However it might be worth looking at relative precipitation levels, since this seems to be more the effect that is most obvious. (Though that also gets into cloud formation . . . . . . )

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Posted by Heading Out at 10:49 PM 2 comments
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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Regional US temperatures, the West, the Middle and the East

The relative changes in the temperature profiles between the Central States and those along the Atlantic Coast, begs the question as to the relative conditions on the West Coast. And so I have combined the state temperatures of California, Oregon and Washington State. As with the other regions the first average that I took was for the homogenized data, and just took an average for the three states, to get a sense of what has occurred over the past hundred and ten years.

Average temperature over time for the Pacific Coast, using the average of state temperatures, and homogenized USHCN reported temperatures

The most obvious immediate conclusion is that the temperature drop from 1950 to 1965 which is so evident on the East Coast does not appear to have happened in the West. And the flat temperatures over the last hundred years found in the Central States don't appear to hold either.

Breaking this down to a review of the initial Time of Observation corrected temperatures, but initially again just averaging the state temperatures, one gets:

Average temperature for the states along the West Coast, averaging the TOBS average state temperatures.

In contrast with the Middle States there does appear to be a steady increase, with time, in the average temperature. Looking at the average of all the stations (a total of 138), the data continues to show that rise:

Average temperature for the states along the West Coast, averaging the TOBS average station temperatures.

The area that each station covers falls from an average of 3,000 sq miles in California, through 2,460 in Oregon to 1,621 in Washington. When one adjusts for area, using this weighting, and adding a trend line to see what the temperature change averages, one gets:

Average temperature for the states along the West Coast, weighting the TOBS averages by area.

There is still no sign of that fall in temperatures in the 1950’s, in fact the temperature goes up. Comparing the results for the three different states:

Average individual West Coast TOBS temperatures over time

The form of the plots are roughly similar with the two more northern states showing almost identical patterns, and a slightly wider range of fluctuation.

When one compares the three regions that I have looked at to date, however, the difference between them is quite clear. Well actually, if I plot the data itself it is a little obscured by the curves as they superimpose.

Average temperatures for different regions of the country over the past century.

The Middle states are clearly warmer than those on the two coasts, which I hadn’t expected, but it is more difficult to separate the two coastal variations. Because of this overlap I have moved the lines a little apart, so that the changes in pattern can be more clearly seen. So, for this plot, ignore the temperature values on the left, since I have, as shown, adjusted the values so that they are separated, and so that the differences in behavior each year can be seen.

Pattern of temperature change for three regions of the United States over the past century.

While there is some congruity between the central and Atlantic values, these are clearly different from the Western states. Perhaps I should see what is happening in the mountains??

I am also curious to see what the effects of El Nino’s have on the land temperatures, but I think that I will add in the mountain states, before putting those effects onto the plot.

I might start here but any other suggestions would be welcome.

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Posted by Heading Out at 10:42 PM 2 comments
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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Snow in Washington

Well the Federal Government in Washington has now been shut down since Monday, and there is a question as to whether it will open on Friday. For the first time ever, the Senate Cafeteria was closed. There is even the possibility of more snow coming next week. Perhaps as much as another fifteen inches.

To give a sense of scale Baltimore usually has 18 inches of snow in a winter, and this year it has had 65 inches already, beating the previous record. Because of the size of this “Snowmageddon” the city, which normally spends about $6.2 million on snow clearance, has seen the costs balloon far beyond that. One of the casualties has been the surface light rail systems. Apparently these shut down when there is more than eight-inches of snow, making the otherwise more reliable public transport unavailable.

I remember one time riding a train in the UK – to Bedford I think – and sitting at the front watching the carriage move through snow banks where the train profile up to about a third of the carriage, had been carved by the steady traffic of the commuter service. But this time the snow has been just too great and services in the Washington area continue to be closed down. Up in New Jersey the conditions have become bad enough for the bus service to stop, but they are transferring the traffic to the light rail system.

As with the problems that the UK have had earlier in the winter, there is now a growing concern about there being enough salt to get through the season.
Hagerstown’s street-clearing crew was keeping up with the snow but coping with a shortage of road salt, Public Works Manager Eric Deike said. Deike said he ordered hundreds of tons of salt through a state contract, but it wasn’t reaching the city.

The best the city might get is 80 tons at the end of the week, Deike said he’s been told. For a storm with 6 to 8 inches of snow, road crews might spread 150 to 200 tons of salt to prevent the roads from getting slick, he said. Deike said the city is using its remaining salt sparingly.
It is apparently giving Chicago a complex since their weather has not been that bad, and being used to it, they took care of the problems. They even had an earthquake today, but it was small by California standards and thus not likely to make much press. The problem was that no-one was expecting it to happen where it did and at the present there is no explanation of why there? We’ll just have to see. There is one theory :
that the state's earthquakes could be the result of glaciers that receded north about 15,000 years ago. Relieved of the weight of the ice, the crust could still be slowly bouncing back into place, causing underground disturbances.
. By the way, while some have blames this on the changing climate, it is more likely just to be one of these occasionally aberrant events that occur in systems where there are a wide variety of conditions that can occur and change the weather, and at this time that roll of the dice had come up with heavy snow in DC, and not enough in Vancouver, where the Olympics start this week. (Yay, Rigger! – I’ll be watching). Dr. Pielke Snr. explains that this is not the case, and why the press has it wrong.

It will be interesting to see if this much snow has any impact on fuel consumption for the North East, given that it has closed highways and kept cars, and folks at home. There they might enjoy a wood fire, as we do, though ours comes from a tile stove in the lower floor, yet keeps the house comfortable through the evening and night. Until now this winter may not have been that profitable for firewood vendors. In Tennessee they have found competition from the unemployed and folk willing to harvest their own wood.
Selling at Higgins' for $150, down from $165 last winter. That makes things tight for a milling business that relies heavily on money from firewood sales during slow winter milling months.

"We could charge just as much (as last year)," Higgins said, "but we'd have a lot of wood sitting around then."
That's because increased unemployment and a tough economy have lured more people to the woods this year with a chainsaw, a pickup truck and the idea to sell firewood, Higgins said.
For those wishing to get into the market, it is apparently not that easy. The Evening Sun story notes the new vendor who having prepared 35 cords for sale, has only sold 3. And if you are thinking of buying:
Locust, ash and hickory wood burn hottest and cleanest, Higgins said, and are types consumers should look for. Many people will tell you oak is best, but other woods actually produce more BTUs per log, he said. Firewood should always be seasoned, he explained, which necessitates keeping it off the ground and covered, but still exposed to air that will help dry it.

"The best time to buy is really in the spring," he said. "Then by the time winter rolls around, you've got some good wood."
The only problem with enjoying the heat from that wood, this week, is that you have to carry the wood across the mud-stirred, snow covered yard back into the house, first.

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Posted by Heading Out at 10:38 PM 2 comments
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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

P34. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest.

Beginning by perusing the snippets that dribble into the Houston Chronicle blog from CERAweek, Representative Markey admitted there would be some role for coal in the future; while IHS looked to see the recession last through this year, bottom out next and rebound in 2011, in the process demand for oil will fall another 1 mbd this year. In the same session company assets were foreseen as dropping further below real value, according to an IHS analyst; and the imbalance between operating costs and commodity prices would continue to feed increasing supply volatility. The BP Chairman felt that with enough investment (a trillion dollars a year) enough energy will be found to meet global demand. If we can overcome the human problems, the geological problems will be insignificant. He called for a confident relationship between government and companies, since without it investment would not be forthcoming; an open energy market; a heavy investment in conservation and energy efficiency; a program to address global warming, through increasing the price paid for carbon fuels (cap and trade); opening up the reserve areas now off limits including the continental shelf; incentives to encourage CCS and low carbon technology; and more investment in energy research – he bragged about the model program he set up with Dr Chu. In questions he said that the industry must get costs in line so that $40 becomes a good price again; that corn ethanol is not an answer (but cane ethanol is); and before we decide on electric cars we have to decide where the power is coming from.

The Schlumberger Chair reminded the audience that before the economic collapse we were having a hard time meeting supply, and his job is to keep a viable company until those times come back, and that includes keeping R&D going. The Director General of Pemex, said that they plan on producing 2.9 mbd this year, but needs more money for investment in new resources and a refinery. The Vice Chairman of CNPC said that China had a remarkable year and were concentrating on technology, including EOR for mature fields. In questions they saw a role for gas from shale, and a need for a better image for the industry .

The lunch speaker was the Shell CEO and he also pointed out that as the recession ends so the demand for oil will return, and fast. This will require use of all resources and will raise carbon dioxide levels. But it also will require investment, even through these hard times. They are now living on past investments, but fears that in 3-4 years the cost of insufficient investment will be hurting production. They plan on continued investment in R&D, he bragged about the unmanned offshore monotowers that produce gas. He also supported cap and trade, and many of the items listed by the BP head. In questions he said that Europe, having higher taxes was equivalent to a carbon tax, and had led to more efficient cars. In other talks, they admitted Texas was in recession with the country economy expected to continue to contract all year. And then Exxon spoke out against cap-and-trade, preferring a straight tax. Finally the IEA Chair said that they expected to revise this years demand down another notch, before starting to grow next year. But he also said that energy professionals were more optimistic than financiers at this point.

The struggle between water and energy from hydroelectric projects continues to divide Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as the situation turns bad enough that growers are burning their orchards for fuel.

In the United Kingdom the National Grid is planning on sequestering its carbon from 5 coal-fired power plants near the Humber in rock layers under the North Sea which once held natural gas. They feel they can do this within 3 years. On the other hand Brazil’s Energia hopes to trap 1- 15% of the gas from a power plant in algae that can then generate oil. Another UK Power company Centrica has upset shareholders who would rather it invested in natural gas rather than nuclear power. And in the gas business Gazprom which is anticipating a 5% cut in Western European demand is also now expecting a 15% drop in demand from Eastern Europe. But that has no stopped them denying the rumors and pledging to move forward on development of the Shtockman field, starting next year, yielding natural gas in 2013, and LNG the following year. Gazprom is also investing in LUKoil to help it repay some loans. And speaking of LNG the anticipated shipment of LNG from Sakhalin has been postponed until April In the meantime they are making up the contracted amounts by using gas from Abu Dhabi. (Unrelated but they also have a wakening volcano – just like Alaska). Gazprom are also making another move at the UK market, this time trying to sell electrical power.

Russia is considering a tidal power plant near Murmansk. And half-way around the world similar plans are being considered for the Columbia river in the Northwest USA. Rolls Royce, meanwhile are testing turbines in the UK that can generate up to 1 MW, with a sea trial for a 0.5 MW unit scheduled for this summer , they foresee up to 300 MW of tidal power being possible around the UK by 2020.

The power crisis in Bangladesh is likely to continue until at least mid-May when the Monsoon starts, since the current drought has dropped the water levels needed for hydropower and at present they are drawing down the existing gas fields so fast that they risk damaging the rock structure, and still don’t have enough. Chittagong, a major city, now only has power for half the demand.

For more stories see The Energy Bulletin or Drumbeat at The Oil Drum

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Posted by Heading Out at 10:53 PM 0 comments
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