Inside the DC Bubble

Best way to counter rising housing prices: rising violent crime.

Thus far in 2007 murders are up year over year by almost 10 percent, according to the Metropolitan police, which tends to underreport its numbers. In 2007, murders were down as seen here and here. For first time in decades there were less than 200 murders in the city.

But crime is the Achilles heel of the DC renaissance. All the condos in NOMA will empty. All the families in Dupont Circle will move to suburbs. The retail in Columbia Heights will have unsold merch, if crime comes back.

True, things are far, far better than they were in the 1980s and 1990s. But the DC renaisance has been depended on falling crime rates as much as anything else. Let's keep an eye on this ball.

The rules for feeling safe in D.C. are changing. No longer can you say don't cross 16th St. or if I'm in Georgetown I don't need to worry about getting mugged or worse.

"This is a big difference from what we've seen in years past," Police Chief Charles Ramsey said in the WaPo, noting that criminals tended to stick within a mile of their homes when setting out for a night of robbery or burglary. "And it's a pattern that we've been tracking."

If this trend holds greater regional cooperation will be needed to fight crime in D.C. Good luck on that one.

Furthermore if you are not safe in Georgetown because its rich and attracts criminals what about Bethesda or Alexandria? Probably not safe either.

First the good news: Murders are down by about 13% May 17, 06 vs. May 17, 05.

Now the bad: Robberies are up. For the third consecutive month robberies were up and the year-to-date total is up almost 10 percent in 2006 compared with 2005. As of April there were 1,177 robberies year to date. And they are up almost 19 percent for the month of April year over year.

The changing crime mix from headline-grabbing, drug-driven double and triple homicides to plain-old stick ups is one bad aspect of DC becoming more affluent, which of course is a good thing.

But does the growing trend of more robberies threaten the DC revival?

If we trade, the moniker murder capital for robber-town or whatever in the headlines there is the risk that people will be scared away. Part of the reason, the DC market was undervalued all those years was the high murder rate, but a high robbery rate would be just as bad for reviving the city and for property values. Greater visibility by the Metropolitan Police Department seems like part of the answer and that means the cops have to get out of their cruisers and walk the streets.

Well almost. The DC housing bubble has been discussed at length. But crime rates are a different story.

Not since the mid-1980s will DC have endured/enjoyed two years in a row with less than 200 murders. As of Dec. 30, there have been 194 murders in DC compared with 195 for the same date last year when the total number for the year was 198. The last back-to-back years when there were fewer than 200 murders was in 1985 (147 murders) and 1986 (194 murders).

Even better, DC is way off the high water mark when our city was declared "the murder capital." In 1991, there were 481 murders. In fact during each year of the 1989 to 1993 period, DC had over 400 murders annually.

Not surprisingly, the turn around in the DC real estate market also began around this time. Of course, one could argue rising prices were a national trend and DC was just part of it, but then again we could have missed out on the jump altogether. It seems like the two trends fed off of each other here in town. As crime fell, condos were developed and new neighborhoods (U street for instance) became safer and more attractive, which led to even lower crime rates and more development.

AND WHERE DID THAT CRIME GO? In contrast to the situation in DC, Prince George's County has experience a sharp increase in murders with 168 homicides in 2005 compared with 148 the same time last year. Fairfax also experienced a crime wave of its own as murder jumped from 11 to 22. Putting the violence into perspective, even as far back as 1960, DC (81 murders) had more murders then than Fairfax does today.

One Liners

Hoping to ward off a glut, condo and single-family home developers are offering incentives to potential homebuyers.

Three new supermarkets are slated to open in DC in 2006, says the Washington Times. Three stores are opening in the District -- Harris Teeter in Adams Morgan in the old skating rink and on Capitol Hill by the Potomac Avenue metro and a Giant in Van Ness. The timing and newness of these openings seems fuzzy to us.

With arbitration hanging over DC's head, DC and major league baseball met on Saturday, Dec. 31, to discuss ways to manage the cost of building the stadium. Under consideration are: selling development right within the stadium footprint, using a special WMATA fund to pay for metro renovations and getting MLB to kick in more free tix for city youth.