In the developed world, the end is near. The highly transmissible Omicron variant is colliding with highly vaccinated populations that are bolstered by highly effective mRNA vaccines and COVID-19 treatments. That’s why the pandemic will likely become endemic for advanced industrial economies in the first half of this year. Yet even in the developed world, the economic hangover from the pandemic will endure this year with disrupted supply chains and persistent inflation.
But China, the primary engine for global growth, will face highly transmissible COVID-19 variants without the most effective vaccines and with far fewer people protected by previous infection. China’s policy will fail to contain infections, lead to larger outbreaks, and require more severe lockdowns. That means greater economic disruptions, lower consumption, and a more dissatisfied population at odds with the triumphalist “China defeated COVID” of the state-run media. China ‘s problem will continue until sometime after it has rolled out domestically developed mRNA shots and boosters for the world’s largest population—at the end of the year by the earliest. Paid Partner Content
CDC Recommends COVID Vaccines for Everyone 5+ By U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
In general, developing countries will be hit hardest, and political incumbents will bear the brunt of public anger. Demand for booster shots in wealthier countries will prevent effective vaccines from becoming more widely available. New outbreaks will slow economic growth in emerging markets and leave poorer governments with more debt.
In all these ways, Covid-19 will continue to drive political and economic instability. 2. Technopolar world The world’s biggest tech firms decide much of what we see and hear. They determine our economic opportunities and shape our opinions on important subjects. E.U., U.S., and Chinese policymakers will all tighten tech regulation this year, but they won’t limit their ability to invest in the digital sphere where they, not governments, remain the primary architects, actors, and enforcers.
In November, Republicans will almost certainly win back majority control of the House of Representatives—and maybe the Senate. If so, Democrats will view GOP control as the illegitimate result of a voter-suppression campaign, and Republicans will see victory as further evidence of 2020 election fraud. Biden’s impeachment will lead the GOP agenda and public trust in American political institutions will take an even larger hit.
More important is what the midterms mean for the 2024 presidential election. Donald Trump is signaling he will run for president in 2024. If he is defeated by a Democrat, a Republican House could vote to overturn state-level election results, but a Democrat-controlled Senate would limit the fallout.
But if Republicans win both the House and Senate this November, if Trump responds to possible defeat in 2024 by challenging the result, and if state-level officials submit alternative certifications that Republican congressional majorities accept, the 2024 U.S. presidential election can be broken and a constitutional crisis will result.
5. Russia A buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine has opened a broader confrontation over Europe’s security architecture. President Vladimir Putin could send in troops and annex the occupied Donbas, but his current demand is for major NATO security concessions and a promise of no further eastward expansion. But a grand bargain is unlikely, and close encounters between NATO and Russian ships and planes will become more frequent and more dangerous, increasing chances of an accident. Add ongoing concerns about Russian cyber-attacks and interference in U.S. elections. Possible U.S. sanctions that target the secondary market trading of Russian sovereign debt would end any hopes of more stable U.S.-Russian relations.
Read more at: The Top 10 Global Risks of 2022 | Time
