A Penigma - a mystery, under a pseudonym

OK, we need some fun news. And I've long joked about taking the month of December off to celebrate. Toss in there are 12 days of christmas. And if you celebrate Christmas in the Western or Eastern rites, you can drag it out to 24 days!

I have to admit some confusion since I thought the Ukrainian Church was under Rome. It turns out that the Eastern Orthodox Church partially recognizes the Orthodox Church of Ukraine as the only canonical successor of the Metropolitanate of Kyiv, while the Catholic Church recognizes the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church as the only canonical successor.

So, 24 days of Christmas it is!

 They say Russia almost became Islamic. The story is that Tsar Jaroslav the Wise during the Kievan Rus wanted to give up paganism. So, he called together representatives from all the world's religions.

The Islamic representative told him he could have all the wives he wanted. Jaroslav said, "Yeah, go on". The Islamic rep said, "But you can't drink alcohol". And Jaroslav was all like "get outta here..."

 

 

I was tempted to call this "Of Angels, Aliens, and Impeachment" since people are believing the existance of Aliens and UFOs with less of a factual basis than the evidence that Joe Biden was on the take. 

For example, Hunter's Laptop, it's been authenticated. It's been verified by other people, Tony Bobulinski. Now, we have hints that a Burisma exec taped at least one Biden. It's pretty much accepted that:

The House Oversight committee subpoenaed four banks and received thousands of records, the memo said. Based on those records, the committee said Biden family members, associates and their companies received more than $10 million in payments from people or companies with foreign ties, during and after Biden’s vice presidency.

A selection of the released bank records show that, from 2015 to 2017, Biden family members received money from a foreign company connected to Gabriel Popoviciu, The New York Times reported. Popoviciu is a Romanian businessman who was convicted in Romania on criminal corruption charges.

I'm with Joe Rogan that if this were Trump, the media would be up his asshole with a microscope, but it's Biden and the equal before the law and rule of law shit evaporates for the people liked by the Oligarchy.

They might have a point if there was proof that these allegations were being investigated, but nothing has happened while Trump seems to be a litigation magnet. But Trump was cast as a distraction. He's not a real villain, he's the heel in the Kayfabe world of WWF.

On the other hand, Biden is real, but is he being given the scrutiny he deserves?

I find it interesting that to hear about Hunter Biden and his laptop one has to dig for that information in the US media. On the other hand, I was saying "WHOA!" when I heard about the Bidens and Ukraine. Lots of other things going on which have me wondering, but the silence is bothersome. Particularly from my co-bloggers.

There are lots of ways to rig an election, one of which is to control the information. It's one thing to call Fox News viewers misinformed. Especially if one doesn't get good information from their news source: and US media is terribly untrustworthy.

My first reaction to Fox News was to want to turn the Television to the window and take a walk the way Poles did during martial law in the 1980s. I feel that way toward US media as a whole now. Fortunately, I don't have to watch it, but I am curious as to how Joe Biden can manage to maintain power given his obvious flaws. There are too many questions, but one is labelled a conspiracy theorist if they mention them.

If I have any influence from the Soviet Bloc, it is to question the party line. Especially if that party line is left unchallenged. Add in that the people who question are persecuted for airing the opinions. It's nice that the internet allows for the publication of opposing viewpoints, but whether those viewpoints are seen is another matter.

The reality is that there may be another sham election where a weak candidate may end winning against a much stronger opposition. Where districts which should be impossible to win are won.

One doesn't need to be a conspiracy theorist to question that.

And definitely in the last month.

I often wonder how long it would have taken me to get up to speed linguistically if I had been allowed to join the international legion. I know I could drive a truck and free up a space, but I am too old. Anyway, I find I am talking to people in Ukraine and helping in the ways that I can. I don't feel too useful, which is incredibly frustrating for me. 

I just had a conversation with someone in Lv'iv, which is in the west and "away" from the heavy fighting in the east. It's an area close to the Polish border. Still, they are having a hard time.

I wish this would end.

Narcissists have a hard time admitting defeat or that they were wrong. Argue with my ex-wife is you don't believe me. Anyway, the drama seems to have toned down. So back to the Russian overt narc.

People are beginning to believe the Ukrainians when they releast the casualties and losses for the Russian army.

Ukrainian kids grow up hearing how their parents, grandparents, and Greatgrandparents fought the Germans and the Russians. It's the home of the partisan Otriads from Defiance. Of course, they are kicking Russian ass.

As for Nato expansion, all the former Eastern Block countries get it. The current spate of war crimes in Ukraine show why the West should have been doing all it could to supply the Ukrainians in the war to save their homeland.

 OK, getting back on my feet after leaving my narc wife, which is something that Doggone has been waiting for me to do for the last 12 years!

Anyway, I mentioned Chernobyl in a previous post. It seems that:

Several hundred Russian soldiers were forced to hastily withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine after suffering “acute radiation sickness” from contaminated soil, according to Ukrainian officials.

The Russians really effed this one! https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-sickness-after-digging-chernobyl-trenches

The Russians are pretty much back at "Go" despite all their losses. They have rolled back their surrender demands, but the Ukrainians aren't calling it quits until the bully has been smacked down.

More videos of demoralised Russian soldiers (Hi, Mitch, watch this space), yet no Russian surrender.

Putin is doing a better job of trashing Russia than what he has been alleged to have done in the US.

BTW, my cousin is a medic in the Kharkiv region and doing OK.

Family issues have me occupied.

And they are getting the shit pounded out of them. I could get into the reasons, but it was a failure before it began,.

Any hope of keeping the Donbass and Crimea for Russia are gone. Of course, that situation should never have happened, but the Obama administration let them happen. No real attempts to embargo Russia were made.

Some companies still aren't complying. Russia needs to be squeezed economically, even if it means discomfort for Europeans. What they would go through by having to turn down the hear and cut back on driving isn't as bad as what Ukrainians are going through.

Which is a way to get around that the "special military operation" has been a massive failure for Russia.

A joke from Moscow: "According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?" "Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet."

Moscow could have mounted a much more limited offensive if capturing the whole of Donbass had been the objective from the start. That would have eliminated the effort and losses involved in invading Ukraine from the north, east and south. 

"Obviously they have completely failed in everything they've set out to do and so now they are redefining what the purpose is so they can declare victory," said Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. army forces in Europe who now works for the Center for European Policy Analysis. "Clearly they do not have the ability to continue sustained large-scale offensive operations... Their logistics problems have been apparent to everybody, they've got serious manpower issues and the resistance has been way beyond anything they could have possibly imagined."

Another problem for Russia was that the "liberation" was unwanted as evidenced by peaceful resistance. I wanted to do a piece on the Bayraktar TB2 drone, but that has been covered very well. On the other hand, here we have protesters in Svobody Square in Kherson singing the Byraktar Song:

Here we have a crowd of residents of Russian-occupied Slavutych in northern Ukraine forcing Russian troops to run with just their chants of “fuck off”, “go home, murderers”, and “glory to ukraine” despite being shot at.

So, what we are seeing is poorly equipped troops in an ill-conceived action meeting resistance both non-violent and military with predictrable results.

And the Ukrainian Minstry of Defence provides the information if you want to steal a Russian tank:

https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/portfolio/t-72/

 

From Le Monde online

I keep waking up expecting to hear that Russia has finally surrendered, but Putain has doubled down on his losing bet. They are actually hurting their military while helping Ukraine build theirs.

As I keep saying, waiting for the Russian surrender is like:

The problem is that the Russians would have to make serious concessions if they surrender. They aren't in a position to ask for much as their military is being destroyed. I've heard it said that Putain would rather start World War III than admit his army was beaten by the Hostomel Territorial Defence Corps.

Seriously. In a virtual address to NATO, President Zelensky said that he has one demand. “After such a war against Russia… Please, never, never again tell us that our army does not meet NATO standards.” Zelensky added “But NATO has yet to show what the Alliance can do to save people. To show that this is truly the most powerful defense association in the world. And the world is waiting. And Ukraine is very much waiting, for real action."

Western sources need to start taking Ukraine seriously because people who have trained with the Ukrainian Army prior to the war have only praise.  Money and supplies are nice, but they need to be on the ground: not on paper.

I am also amazed that Western news sources are not reporting that the Russian forces have been pretty much contained around Kyiv. A month into Russia’s war against Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and other major cities are under the Ukrainian flag. That means the war will move to the Eastern part which is where the worst fighting has been for most of this war.

It's good that the pressure is off Kyiv, but things are really bad in the Eastern War zone. The people in the occupied territories are being mistreated by Russian forces. There are documented cases of War crimes. Also, the Russians are admitting they are not doing well in communications intercepted by Ukrainian military intelligence.

It's amusing when people say that Ukraine should be thankful for the aid from Western Countries. While nice on paper and good for PR, it hasn't really reached Ukraine.

The situation is pretty much the same as it was during the time of the OUN-UPA: Ukrainians are fighting on their own with little outside support. I know Russian propaganda wants to paint the Azov Battalion as Nazis, but they are Ukrainian patriots like the UPA was. The units are much more of a cross section of Ukrainian society than Russian propaganda would have you believe. Cool, this was in my search:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-azov-battalion-putins-excuse-for-war-against-nazis-in-ukraine/ar-AAVnfI8 

https://tinyurl.com/3bzck5m3

I guess when your country, Russia, illegally invades another country and commits war crimes you have to try to make yourself look good. Especially when your getting the shit kicked out of your large army. 

Russia cannot get out of the mess it created for itself without being seriously hurt.

There is a petition to NATO countries which is asking them to acknowledge: 

• Russia is an outlaw terrorist state threatening world peace -
• RU is waging genocidal war on Ukraine to extinguish UA as an independent nation 
• RU's main objective is to see the end of the rules-based intl order
  

 My note: I mention that I get my info direct from the sources. Well, they aren't really happy with how this war is being covered. And I agree with what they say here, so. This is the complete piece from the New Voice of Ukraine, posted with permission:

 https://english.nv.ua/nation/six-common-mistakes-foreign-journalists-covering-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-make-50227712.html

Dear colleagues,

On February 24 2022, Russia began an unprovoked full scale invasion of Ukraine, a massive escalation of their eight-year war in Donbas in east Ukraine. Russia’s war is conducted along four axes, attacking all major Ukrainian cities with missiles, air strikes and in most instances, ground forces. Untold numbers of civilians and servicemen have been killed. In just over three weeks, more than three million Ukrainians have become refugees in Europe. Four members of the media community have been killed by Russian forces: Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Brent Renaud, Evgen Sakun and Pierre Zakrzewski.

Russian forces kidnap Ukrainian journalists in order to silence them, thus a Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roschina and Oleh Baturin spent 6 and 8 days in captivity after disappearing. Ukrainian photojournalist Maks Levin disappeared on March 13th while reporting from the frontline near Kyiv. A publisher from Melitopol Mikhail Kumok and three journalists - Yevgeniya Boryan, Yuliya Olkhovska and Lyubov Chaika - has been also detained for 1 day and have been pressured to collaborate with Russian occupational regime in their city. 

Simultaneously Russia has been attacking our core values of truthful, fact-driven and honest reporting through continuous disinformation campaigns. Many people are not aware of the scale and depth of these campaigns, and their full impact is yet to be felt. 

The effectiveness of these disinformation narratives did not happen overnight. They took time to seep into public discourse, capitalizing on misrepresentations or misunderstandings over language, history and politics, and exacerbating existing divisions in society until they began to stifle civil discussion.

This is why, as individual journalists and organizations from the Ukrainian media community who have battled with Russian information warfare since 2014,  we would like to highlight the following points regarding the language used to describe this war. Some of them might not be obvious but are vitally important to us and a truthful representation of this war. We ask media organizations to share this with their newsrooms and audiences:

1. One common error is to use terms like “crisis”, “conflict” or “military operation”, or call it “Ukrainian” i.e. “Ukraine Crisis” or “Ukraine conflict”. This is a full scale invasion of, and war against, Ukraine. We ask you to correctly indicate Russia’s role in the war with the wording “Russia’s war in Ukraine” and/or “Russian invasion of Ukraine”, especially in captions, headlines, leads and hashtags.

2. At the same time, we ask not to overuse the phrase “Putin's war”. Even though there is a temptation to believe that this war started only because of the Russian president, several polls from diverse polling organizations (Savanta ComRes, VCIOM, the research project "Do Russians Want War?") have reported that the silent majority of Russians – roughly 60 percent – support the war. During the first week of the war, public support for Putin in Russia grew from 60 to 71 percent. Russian soldiers on the ground are firing missiles and bombs, and deliberately killing civilians. Many of them do not have access to the facts and to independent media, but this does not take responsibility away from them.

3. Many refer to the 2014 pseudo-referendums in the Ukrainian territories of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as explanations for Russian military aggression. This is misleading. The territories of Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, were annexed and occupied by Russian forces in 2014. Crimea was annexed by Russia in an unequivocal violation of international law. The war in Donbas was exclusively orchestrated and supported by the Russian State. The pseudo-referendums and proxy republics are not recognised by the international community. Experts (Orysia Lutsevych, Andrew Wilson, and Nikolay Mitrokhin to name a few) emphasize that neither the creation of the puppet "republics" in Donetsk and Luhansk nor the conventional war would have happened without Russian involvement.  The current escalation demonstrates Russia’s desire to control the whole of Ukraine, and these “republics” are used as a platform for full-scale invasion and a tool for propaganda and disinformation. 

4. Additionally the quasi “republics” in Donbas are not another armed side of the conflict. They operate as part of the Russian army and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine. Using terms like “separatist-held areas” is therefore incorrect. Please consider using "Russian proxies".

5. Another common error we observe is to report Ukrainian and Russian positions as “two equal perspectives''. Russian positions are based on lies, propaganda and denial of the existence of Ukraine as a nation and state. Russian propaganda is not just “strategic communication” or another point of view, it is using disinformation to justify killing thousands of civilians and continuing a completely unprovoked war. 

The narrative that characterizes the war as a proxy one between Russia and the West denies Ukrainian agency - something that the Ukrainian people’s resistance to invasion clearly demonstrates. NATO is an alliance based on the right of sovereign nations to collective defense, enshrined in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations. By focusing on ‘expansion’, the media are perpetuating the Kremlin’s justification for war and ignoring the democratic voice of the Ukrainian people who wish to live in peace, free from Russian aggression.

6. Finally, we implore you to include, engage and hear Ukrainian experts. The majority of international experts specialize in Russia or Eastern Europe. We ask to include Ukrainian experts, or those who have lived and worked in Ukraine in the journalism you publish about the war. 

Information warfare and disinformation academics and experts warn that Russian tactics, perpetuated by its supporters here in the West and abroad, have one objective: to divide, deceive, sow doubt and create enough distrust of information that people do not know what to believe, and question even the most well-evidenced facts. They will play on the truths we tell ourselves and promises which go unkept. They will attack sentiments shared by, and within, ethnic, gender, linguistic and socio-economic groups. Disinformation aims to oversimplify existing issues and turn victims into perpetrators. We see this already with Russians supporting this war believing they are fighting NATO and "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine. We have seen it in the past with disinformation targeting the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe and the truth behind the downing of flight MH-17 in 2014. 

A full and truthful account of this war is pivotal to defeating Russia’s information war, consisting of propaganda and manipulation targeted at Ukraine and at liberal democratic countries and institutions. Therefore, we believe that the public needs to be aware of how Russia will manipulate the effects of this war. They will attempt to weaponize behaviors which contradict our collective values, such as double standards towards refugees and racial discrimination against minority groups. They will attempt to hyper-charge the rise of nationalist movements, in order to deflect the blame from Russia to Ukraine, NATO and Europe.

We believe that it is important to raise these issues now, to allow for a civilized and open discourse on how to collectively tackle these and future issues which undoubtedly will arise from this war.

Signed,

Media organizations:

Commission on Journalism Ethics

Ukrainian Media Business Association

National Union of Journalists of Ukraine, - Sergiy Tomilenko, President

Institute of Mass Information - Oksana Romaniuk, director 

Internews Ukraine - Kostiantyn Kvurt, the head

Regional Press development Institute

Center for Democracy and Rule of Law 

Independent Media Council, Ukraine 

Ukrainian Media and Communication Institute - Diana Dutsyk, CEO

Detector media NGO - Natalyia Lygachova, head, chief editor

Souspilnist Foundation, - Taras Petriv, president  

Media Development Foundation - Eugene Zaslavsky, Executive Director 

Ukrainian Association of media psychologists and media educators - Lyubov Naydonova, President

Suspilne (UA: PBC) - Angelina Kariakina, head of news

Hromadske - Yuliia Fediv, CEO 

LB.UA - Sonya Koshkina, Editor-in-Chief

Ukrayinska Pravda - Sevgil Musaieva, chief editor 

Zaborona Media - Katerina Sergatskova, editor-in-chief, Roman Stepanovych, CEO

Realnaya Gazeta - Andrii Dikhtiarenko, chief editor 

Glavcom (Information Agency) - Mykola Pidvezianiy, chief editor 

Individual journalists, media professionals, experts

Emine Ziyatdinova, Independent Media consultant and documentary photographer. London, UK. 

Nina Kuryata, Independent Media consultant. Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Svitlana Ostapa, Supervisory Board of PJSC, the National Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine, The Chair 

Maryna Synhaivska, "Ukrinform" National News Agency of Ukraine, Deputy Director General  

Liza Kuzmenko, Head of NGO “Women in the Media”, the CJE member 

Julia Smirnova, analyst and journalist, London

Olena Dub, journalist, media-consultant

Olga Yurkova, media trainer, media consultant

Marichka Varenikova, freelance journalist and producer 

Oksana Parafeniuk, freelance photojournalist and producer 

Tetiana Stroi, CEO of Donetsk Press Club, media trainer, media expert

Svitlana Yeremenko, CEO of Pylyp Orlyk Institute for Democracy, journalist, media expert

Roman Kifliuk, independent media expert

Anastasia Magazova, journalist and author, Berlin/Kyiv

Anastasia Vlasova, visual storyteller

Oksana Grytsenko, independent journalist

Tetiana Pechonchyk, head of the Human Rights Center ZMINA, the CJE member 

Andrii Ianitskyi, Center for Journalism at Kyiv School of Economics, the head

Veronika Melkozerova, the New Voice of Ukraine executive editor

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook

As I said, I am way ahead of the news cycle and have heard confirmed reports that the Russian army has been beaten around Kyiv. Makariv, Bucha, Irpin, Dmyrivka communities have been retaken by the Ukrainian military, but those communities remain under constant enemy fire. I have heard that the Russians in the East of Kyiv have also been beaten. That means the war shifts to the Eastern part of Ukraine where the Azov Battalion is defending Mariupol. Source: https://rubryka.com/en/2022/03/23/zsu-vzyaly-v-kiltse-irpin-buchu-ta-gostomel/

So, why was Russia given the advantage and Ukraine going to get defeated according to Western Intelligence sources?  Ukraine's social media is filled with disappointment at the quality of Western military analysis, in particular, over-estimating the ability of the Russian army. Most people explain this as Western experts reading Russian sources and believed them. On the other hand, Ukrainians had direct practical knowledge, but they were pretty much ignored by the Western Agencies. Now, The Ukrainian military and defence studies community also produced a lot of literature in the last 8 years will probably be read, but it's too late now.

I have to admit that I though the Russian military would have done slightly better, but I knew the Ukrainians would put up incredibly strong resistance. I also didn't expect the amount of unification that the Russian invasion and subsequent war would cause.

 

Let's start with a quote from an article in Politico,The Real Goal of Kremlin Disinformation Isn’t What You Think:

"We live in a hyperactive attention economy of unprecedented scale and intensity. And as we swipe and scroll through our news feeds, the Kremlin is biding its time and waiting for us to succumb to 'Ukraine fatigue'. In fact, they are banking on it."

That draws a few interesting observations not all realted to the War in Ukraine. But the most pertinent observation isn't that I have fatigue, but I get more and more annoyed. In fact, it makes it even more important that Russia gets hammered in any surrender agreement. Or to paraphrase Basil Fawlty,

"You keep mentioning the war." 

"Well, you started it." 

"We didn't start it."

 "Yes, you did...you invaded Ukraine."

Part of me wants to see Russia get as hammered as Germany was after the 14-18 War, but that treaty was too harsh. Anyway, This is today's update from the New Voivce of Ukraine:

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on for a month. Today, March 23rd, is the 28th day of Putin's war. 

UPDATE (1233): Operational information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian invasion as of 1200.

·        The return of certain units of the Republic of Belarus to points of permanent deployment has been partially confirmed. At the same time, the Lukashenka regime continues to hold a significant group of troops near the state border of Ukraine;

·        The invaders tried to advance to the area of ​​the village of Teterivske in Kyiv Oblast (about 70 kilometers north-west of central Kyiv), but due to limited forces they did not succeed and were forced to withdraw.

·        As a result of the fighting in the area around Izyum, the Ukrainian defense forces destroyed up to 60% of the personnel and military equipment of an invading Russian force.

·        On the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in the area of ​​Dzhankoy, the arrival and concentration of personnel and military equipment of units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation has been recorded.

·        The Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting a stabilization operation in certain areas, holding back the advance of the enemy, and in certain directions forcing the enemy to retreat.

Which takes us back to the Politico article which gets into how Russian propaganda works. The best way to counter propaganda is to know how it works. Again, that has interesting ramifications, especially for the Russiagate Crowd. In fact, it confirms my opinion of Russiagate, but that is totally off subject since the an important part is:

Predictive projection. Predictive projection is a preemptive flying of a false flag. If you want to understand what the Kremlin will do next, pay attention to what it says others will do first. Before Putin’s invasion, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine was preparing to taunt the 150,000 Russian troops amassed on its border and attack its own sovereign eastern territory under Kremlin occupation. Now Russian state media is conjuring the specter of Ukraine building a “dirty bomb” and making biological weapons in secret labs with American conspirators. Russian military officials are tying themselves in knots to allege that Ukrainians in the city of Dnipro are laying mines in their own hospitals so as to cause them to explode while Moscow’s jets fly overhead. Such ominous finger-pointing is a characteristic projection of the Kremlin’s own actions and intentions.

In other words, when Russia is talking about biolabs or chemical warfare, it means that Russia may use those methods. In fact, Russia is using landmines in Ukraine. The video above shows where the Russians want to take this war.

Bottom line is Russia has its back against a wall by continuing a losing war. Their intentions are not good.

And the Ukrainians are the real protectors of the World since the "superpowers" are messing with the world.

 this story is true, that Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian Army at Bucha, NW of Kyiv.

 

I'm seeing numerous reports, and harassing official Russian sites with them, that the Russian forces west of Kyiv are out of food, fuel, and other supplies. The Russian army is stuck on roads. Cutting supply lines would be almost the same as creating a pocket. It is well known that the Russian supply chains and logistics were shit from the start. It will be the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now if this is true. A rough estimate of 9 thousand Russians would be trapped if the pocket is sealed. Ukraine now needs to start worrying about too many POWs.

The thing is that this has been a major focus for Russia. It's not about Kyiv falling but about diverting large amounts of Ukrainian troops. Then Ukrainian units can be freed up to save the east.

Additionally, Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.

That means the Russians are toast! As I have been saying all along, I am amazed they haven't surrendered long ago. The problem is that Putain sees defeat as a moral failure.

Well, Putain has failed in so many ways! 

Or why a lot of people on the left (and right) are talking out their asses.

I have to admit my knowledge of Ukraine, and Belarus, is very limited, but I appear to have a better knowledge of the region than most "experts". But the people I am talking about are the pundits on the left who are siding with Putain, whether consciously or not. These are the people who decry US "imperialism" through its unjustified invasions blahblablah. The ones who scream about why people don't care about Syria blahblahblah. NATO is using Ukraine as a puppet blahblahblah.

The ones that anyone with a shred of knowledge about this war can tell these pundit haven't a fucking idea what they are talking about.

Or they are complete whackjobs.

They can be countered quite simply since Ukraine has been an independent nation since 1991. That independence was guaranteed by Russia, the United Kingdom, and US through the 1994 Budapest Accord. The gist of that accord was that Ukraine would be neutral, not join NATO, and in return give up the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.

In short, Ukraine was promised neutrality by Russia for not joining NATO and giving up nuclear weapons.

Since then, Ukraine has been fumbling to try and create a nation. It finally gets to a point where it is getting things together and Russia decides to invade.

That pretty much shoots down the left wing talking points. They show hypocrisy by parroting the unjustified invasions thing, yet not decrying the invasion of Ukraine. It's not NATO or the west that is pushing the nations neighbouring Russia to want to join: it's a long history of Russian aggression. In fact, these people are supporting a nation with policies they claim to dislike.

You can't scream about large aggressive nations with bloated militaries invading countries without any justification and support Russia. Likewise, not doing anything is helping to destroy nuclear non-proliferation. In fact, Russia's actions are truly detrimental to the international framework for keeping peace. These lefties would do better to say both Russia and the US engage in actions which are harmful to peace, since they both act in similar ways. At this point, the US has not openly threatened a nuclear first strike. That is one factor which tilts the scale to making Russia the worse actor.

The next one is Russian disdain for human rights and national integrity, which is why this is called "A tale of two countries". In this case, Ukraine and Belarus. Ukraine is working on becoming a democratic nation that would ultimately become part of the European Union.

Belarus is what Putain wants to turn Ukraine into. A true puppet state. Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of that nation since its "independence" in 1994. This is despite an election in 2020 which Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. No surprise that Lukashenko has referred to himself as the "last dictator" in Europe.

Elections are not considered to be free and fair by international monitors, opponents of the regime are repressed, and the media is not free, leading to sanctions being imposed on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials. Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won a decisive first-round victory with at least 60% of the vote in 2020, and called on Lukashenko to start negotiations. Her campaign subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and stated that it was ready to organize "long-term protests" against the official results.

And Tsikhanouskaya has been in exile since then. And her husband has been sentenced to 18 years in jail by a sham trial.

Russia is trying to get Belarus to aid in Ukraine, but Lukashenko is shrewder than Putain. Lukashenko knows that his government will topple should he send troops to Ukraine. Belarus dissidents are waiting to fight government troops in Ukraine. Not to mention rumours that Bealrus troops were mutinying early on in the war and refusing to fight in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60827109

Ukraine does not want to be a clone of Belarus, which is why they are fighting. Ukraine wants its independence.

You would think people who claim to be freedom loving would side with the free nation that has been attacked. Especially when a belligerent neighbour invades without reason and commits documented human rights violations.

Neat article in the Atlantic on why the West is in denial about what is happening in Ukraine. I have to admit feeling pretty smug right now: even if I was slightly pessimistic at the start. I was expecting this to be an asymmetic war par excellence. Instead, it is turning out to be a slaughter of the Russian military. I can't say I am that surprised since my first opinion was based on Ukrainian forces being outgunned. Ukraine's military was in much better shape to fight this than I originally guessed.

But that sort of goes to the crux of this article. Most everyone focused on Russia. Not many people knew about Ukraine.

At the same time, there are few analysts of the Ukrainian military—a rather more esoteric specialty—and thus the West has tended to ignore the progress Ukraine has made since 2014, thanks to hard-won experience and extensive training by the United States, Great Britain, and Canada. The Ukrainian military has proved not only motivated and well led but also tactically skilled, integrating light infantry with anti-tank weapons, drones, and artillery fire to repeatedly defeat much larger Russian military formations. The Ukrainians are not merely defending their strong points in urban areas but maneuvering from and between them, following the Clausewitzian dictum that the best defense is a shield of well-directed blows.

It has been said that wars create stories. Ukrainian kids grew up with the stories of the OUN-UPA (Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalist-Ukrainian Patriotic Army) and how they fought both sides in the Second World War. They knew about how the UPA would steal equipment from the Nazis or the Soviets. People in the west heard Soviet propaganda on the "Banderists". Ukrainian people, especially those in the diaspora, knew the truth of what exactly the OUN-UPA was. As I said, I was expecting a guerilla war, but I didn't know the strength of the Ukrainian military. Misjudging that strength was a fault in the analysis: especially that of the Russian invaders:

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.

So, no, those numbers of Russian losses aren't high: they may indeed be conservative. As Prof. Cohen points out, Russian blunders are apparent to even novices. 

I also have to agree with his conclusion:

The Ukrainians are doing their part. Now is the time to arm them on the scale and with the urgency needed, as in some cases we are already doing. We must throttle the Russian economy, increasing pressure on a Russian elite that does not, by and large, buy into Vladimir Putin’s bizarre ideology of “passionarity” and paranoid Great Russian nationalism. We must mobilize official and unofficial agencies to penetrate the information cocoon in which Putin’s government is attempting to insulate the Russian people from the news that thousands of their young men will come home maimed, or in coffins, or not at all from a stupid and badly fought war of aggression against a nation that will now hate them forever. We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials, and begin naming defendants, as we should have done during World War II. Above all, we must announce that there will be a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, for nothing will boost their confidence like the knowledge that we believe in their victory and intend to help create a future worth having for a people willing to fight so resolutely for its freedom.

World War III started the moment Putain threatened to use nuclear weapons. This war must result in nuclear disarmament or any crazy can do what they will.

This war is and can be fought without having to lob nuclear weapons. But the maniacs threating to do that need to be soundly defeated.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/