Bob's Blog - Live from Lewisville

 The focus on the media is often what starts conversations in the public. What you read about (or hear) that morning may influence what "is talked about" around the water cooler. It isn't a great system for what wheel gets the grease, but it is the best one we have. The opposite is also true. Maybe, if we, the media, don't talk about something enough, it gets ignored by the masses. Again, not always, but often, if everyone isn't pointing and yelling at something, maybe its concern level remains low.

https://theathletic.com/2779032/2021/08/20/the-devil-is-certainly-in-the-details-and-the-details-of-the-cowboys-offense-must-improve/

https://theathletic.com/544302/2018/09/24/the-morning-after-cowboys-offense-simply-cannot-do-its-job-in-seattle/

https://theathletic.com/421132/2018/07/06/weekend-cowboys-riffing-the-biggest-problem-of-2018-by-a-mile/

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2017/09/06/sturm-another-season-decoding-linehan-launches-today

A long time ago, I became interested in the inner-workings of the Cowboys game strategies.  From there, I started studying more and more the Xs and Os of the game.  That led to attempting to understand what the Cowboys do and why they do it.  Sometimes, it enlightens a situation involving this team and sometimes it only leads to more complex questions.

But, in the end, it is now a passion of mine to attempt to decipher what the Cowboys are doing from a strategic standpoint, and then attempting to pass it on to readers who want to join on this journey.

It is not for everyone.  In fact, in this day and age of fantasy football and the red zone channel, it may not be for most.  But, to those who enjoy diving deep on just one team and knowing as much as humanly possible about the Dallas Cowboys, you might just enjoy this trip.

Every week, on Tuesdays most the time, I write a blog entry called "Decoding Linehan".  This, of course, is the next in a long line of "Decoding Garrett" from 2008-2012 and "Decoding Callahan" in 2013.  On there, we track all sorts of offensive items that aren't generally found in the box score.

We elaborate on what worked, what didn't, and what this may tell us about their next battles.  In a sense, we attempt to review and predict what their game-plans will be, and then review them carefully as the coaching staff itself does on a weekly basis.

That said, our level of detail can't get so deep that only football nerds understand it.  So, it is my goal every year to track things that are easily consumed for the passionate, and not too intimidating for the newcomers to join in.

Feedback is very helpful, so that I can make sure to elaborate on points that need it from a reader's standpoint, so feel free to drop me a message at any point.

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To begin, let's discuss how we got here.  Below, please examine the NFL run/pass splits compared to the Dallas Cowboys run/pass splits over the last 6 seasons.  As you can see, the NFL is not even close to 50/50 anymore.  In fact 45% run/55% pass is rather dated.  We are now clearly into the average NFL offense considering 42% run/58% pass to be the new normal.

Compare that to the 35%/65% views of the 2012 and 2013 Dallas Cowboys:


If you can make it work, then great.  If you think the offense needs to be even better than 2013 (which I do and you can read many explanations on that in my August breakdowns of the offense in the archives), then we have to hope that their claims of being a more physical, under-center team are not just words.

Next, here is a look at the % of plays in shotgun.  Now, before we get all carried away here, please know that every system is different.  Personally, I don't think Romo/Garrett have shown that they are more efficient and productive in the shotgun - thus I cringe when they run it to the exclusion of everything else (It invites blitzing and forces a lot of passes into nickel and dime defenses).  However, there are teams that are making it work and Philadelphia was in some level of Shotgun/pistol an absurd 86% of the time.  But, Chip Kelly also ran more on 3rd Down than any team  in the last decade (thanks, Football Outsiders) so whatever you can make work is fine.

Regardless, the Cowboys have moved more and more to standard shotgun, which for them results in a 85% pass split.

Next, we need to know what personnel grouping the Cowboys run the majority of the time.  The chart below can seem confusing (because it kind of is), but just know that you can see the Personnel Groupings on the right with a corresponding color.  The numbers around the pie chart are the percentages each grouping is used.  Yellow is "S11" or "Shotgun 11" Personnel which was run 36.5% of the time out of about 950 plays in 2013.  Purple is "12" and was used 20% of the time.  "S12" was used 11%, with normal "11" used 10% of the time.

Those were the 4 most used personnel groupings in 2013, which is a departure from the last several years where "21" and "22" personnel were used.  However, for the first 12 weeks in 2013, the Cowboys did not employ a Fullback, so there were almost no plays where they had 2 backs in the game at the same time.




PERSONNEL GROUPINGS - THE KEY TO FIGURING OUT GAME THEORY

If there is one thing we need to look at to better understand how a game of football in the NFL works, it is knowing why personnel groupings matter more than formations or even the plays themselves.

Offensive Groupings are how the defense decides who to put on the field.  After every play, the defensive coaches watch the offense change players and then quickly respond.  If the Cowboys bring on another WR, the Redskins are watching and quickly yell for another corner to run out and replace a LB.  But, if Dallas does the opposite and takes off a WR and puts on a Fullback, then the opposition needs to take a corner off and put a bigger LB out there because they are now feeling a power run coming on.

Formations matter, but a defense has to then adjust with the 11 players already on the field.  When formations are being changed by the offense, the defense cannot swap players, they simply have to match up their 11 as best they can before the snap.  That is why if you can only study personnel or formations, any coach will tell you to concentrate on who is on the field.

Once you do this for a while, you will be able to count in your head as you see the screen and note what the offense is in.  You might even be able to look at the defense and see how the defense has decided to match up.  It is an amazing chess game that goes on before every snap.

Let's show you the Cowboys' favorite 6 groupings.  For the most part, the entire NFL world will roll with these 6:

11 Personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - Under center - The Cowboys almost never used this grouping from 2008-2012, but in 2013 they started using it more and more.  The Broncos almost never run anything besides "11", but most of it is Shotgun 11.  If you look around the league, the modern NFL seems to believe in "11" as they would rather have a 3rd WR in the game than a FB.


12 Personnel - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - Under Center - This is what you have heard so much about.  The Patriots, the 49ers, the Packers, the Saints, and the Cowboys have all tried to make this their diet.  It is the ultimate balanced package both from personnel (the defense has to make a choice between DBs and LBs and the offense then picks the opposite strength) and from formation - if each side of the offense has a TE there is no weak side!


21 Personnel - 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR - Under Center - Below is the standard personnel grouping that you grew up watching.  This is also called "regular" as it has always been the default grouping.  Of course, we know that the fullback is a dying breed and there is almost no 2-half backs (Tony Dorsett and Ron Springs!) lined up next to each other anymore.  So, while this is the grandfather of them all in the Super Bowl era, it is now just a change-up.  Most teams want a 2nd TE now over a FB.


22 Personnel - 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR - Under Center - This is the new ground and pound grouping that the Cowboys were so good at during the Martellus Bennett/Marion Barber run in 2009 that ended up in the playoffs when they ran this grouping over 200 times in one season.  This declares run to the defense, they bring in extra "bigs" and we have a street fight.  You have power, but they have 9 in the box to stop you.  My favorite idea here is play action over the top to Dez Bryant running in a wide open secondary because everyone is up for the run.


S11 Personnel - 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - Shotgun - This is the most run personnel package in the entire NFL now days at it isn't even close.  The Cowboys love it, but their efficiency is not great.  It is the 2-minute offense and the 3rd Down offense, and also the most favored of them all in any situation.  It spreads out a secondary and makes the DBs prove they can cover without a ton of safety help.  The bad side is it reduces your protection options and really encourages blitzing (especially if you aren't great at stopping them).  This is actually also a great running option because the defense is set up for the pass and has few "bigs" in the game.  Especially delayed runs when the DBs all vacate on routes.


S12 Personnel - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - Shotgun - And this is what Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, and other hybrid TE/WR types love.  This is 12 out of the shotgun and may actually make defenses decide to go dime (6 DBs) so that they can cover everyone with a corner and still have 2 safeties.  But, if they do, they are undersized.  The Cowboys drafted Gavin Escobar for this, and still have not figured it out.  But, they have plans and we should see plenty of this in 2014.



Ok, so once you can identify the groups, you are in good shape to understand what the offense is good at and what they are not so good at.  It is far more advanced than saying, "we are a good passing team".  We need to know in what situations are the Cowboys good?  How are defenses adjusting?  Who is winning the match-up game of chess?

Those are the questions we want to answer here every Tuesday.  See if you can learn to look for RBs and TEs on each play and you will have it down.  Each personnel group is named by the total of each.  2 RBs and 1 TE?  21 Personnel.  1 RB and 2 TEs?  12 Personnel.  Easy.

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Here are the rankings for the last 3 years on what the Cowboys did most.  We are listing the 4 groups from each of the last 3 seasons that they ran the most often ranked from 1st to 4th.  Then, we list how many times they ran the group for total yardage and then the yards per play (ypp).
Every season has a different number of plays, but 1,000 is about normal.  Also, yards per play are context free, so expect more yards per play from a shotgun situation than from a "Run 1st" situation.  It is nearly impossible to get 7 yards an attempt on the ground, but 7 yards an attempt in the passing game is considered mediocre.

2011	2012	2013
1. S11 Personnel	1. S11 Personnel	1. S11 Personnel
303 - 1733 yds	479 - 3141 yds	345 - 1911 yds
5.71 yds per play	6.55 ypp	5.53 ypp
2. 12 Personnel	2. 12 Personnel	2. 12 Personnel
224 - 1475 yds	143 - 767 yds	190 - 1063 yds
6.58 ypp	5.36 ypp	5.59 ypp
3. 22 Personnel	3. 21 Personnel	3. S12 Personnel
124 - 693 yds	121 - 820 yds	105 - 735 yds
5.59 ypp	6.77 ypp	7.00 ypp
4. S12 Personnel	4. 22 Personnel	4. 11 Personnel
93 - 703 yds	73 - 272 yds	95 - 451 yds
7.55 ypp	3.72 ypp	4.74 ypp
Dallas YPP: 5.91	Dallas YPP: 5.71	Dallas YPP: 5.70
NFL YPP: 5.45	NFL YPP: 5.41	NFL YPP: 5.36

Before we get to the Giants win, a brief introduction:

For those of you new to this blog or this series or even this type of conversation, allow me to welcome you to Week 1 in what is now a 7-season series on tracking - with incredible detail - the Cowboys offense on a week-to-week basis.  In this Tuesday series, which is certainly not for everyone, we will try to turn over every stone and try to learn whatever we can learn about what the Cowboys like to do, try to do, and avoid doing.

And that is an exercise that is to replicate on some level what the Cowboys do every week.  There is this belief that you see what a coach truly believes by what his game plan looks like.  That is untrue.  His game-plan is not an idealistic view of the sport or his beliefs about deploying players in a certain system.  Rather, a game plan is a combination of your considering your strengths, your weaknesses, your opponent, and your situation, and decide what gives your side the best opportunity to win.  That should never be confused with what you want to do.  You may want to run the wishbone.  But, you don't have the personnel to do that.  You may want to run the zone read.  If only you had a guy like Colin Kaepernick.  You look at the pieces you have left on the chess board, then carefully consider your opponent's piece.  From that, you come up with a plan.  Sometimes, it is a good plan.  Sometimes, it is a plan that requires good fortune along the way.  But, it is, you believe, the best one you have available.  And that is what coaches do on Tuesday across the league.

During the week, they install the plan, using different days to install different elements (base offense, 3rd down package, red zone), and by game-time you have an idea of what you believe will work.  It changes dramatically from week to week, with everything connected, but evolving.  You put things on film to distract your opponents, sometimes.  You want them to waste valuable time preparing for you by working on stopping something you may never even run.  But, they must because they have to be prepared for what you might do.  And you, as an offensive coordinator, must be prepared to go after your opponent's weaknesses, but remain inside your strengths.  Not always easy.

So, if you continue down this road with us, we will look back at the last game from a number of angles, and try to dissect what they did well, what they did poorly, and what interests us on a level of innovation.  The Cowboys are moving from Jason Garrett to Bill Callahan - and so will we.  What has been called Decoding Garrett is now Decoding Callahan.  We know that it is still the Garrett offense, but there will be some adjustments.  We also know that the GM is committed to multiple tight ends being used on a regular basis and has instructed the offense to run accordingly.  So, we will spend time looking at that.

Again, this is digging deeper than most studies, so I understand if this is a lot of information.  But, if this interests you on some level, stick with it, and it will start to make more sense as the weeks go on.

And now, on to the Giants game.

The Cowboys entered this game with a very unsettled idea of what their offensive line was going to look like.  They knew their left tackle and center were locked down in Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick, but even there, Frederick was playing his very first NFL game.  Usually, your center's first NFL action would frighten a team a bit, but he has been so solid and the rest of the line has been so chaotic that Frederick has actually been the last thing they have worried about.  It is almost like he he conducts himself as a 5 year veteran and seems to play like one, too.

But, who was going to play each guard position and right tackle was a game of musical chairs.  In the end, Ron Leary also made his NFL debut at left guard, Mackenzy Bernadeau was chosen to keep right guard warm for Brian Waters who is shaking off the retirement dust, and that pushed Doug Free back in front of Jermey Parnell at right tackle for the time being.

To make matters more unsettled, they would be facing a defensive front which has bullied them through the years and this time the New York Giants would not be at full strength with a recovering Jason Pierre Paul, but would still be treated with respect in game planning from the Cowboys.

As we look at the tactics and results, we see the Cowboys trying to make sure that all of their looks are based around the idea of using 2 and sometimes 3 Tight Ends.  The reasons for this "12" or "13" personnel looks are elaborated in greater detail in some of our past write-ups, but perhaps best demonstrated on the 2 touchdowns to Jason Witten during the game.  A proper TE, and we believe all 3 are pass catching threats (Escobar needs to prove it, Hanna needs to prove it again) is a matchup issue for LBs because of speed and DBs because of size.  On the 1st Touchdown, they tried to run a linebacker with him and the Cowboys made them pay.  Then, they switched to a smaller DB, and Romo fit it in a tight window and Witten used his size to make room.

The idea with this and just about any scheme is the same:  Make the defense make a choice.  And when they do, present them with proof that there is no right answer.  Either way, multiple tight ends can make you pay.  For much more on this concept, check out what I put here back in June.

In other news, the Cowboys ran out 2 ideas that we have not seen in our 6 years of data.  One is rather straight forward and uses the multiple tight end look.  It is called "S13" which is the same 1 RB, 3 TE, grouping, but for decades that has meant a short-yardage ground game exclusive battering ram.  But, the S means Shotgun, and the Cowboys don't intend on using S13 for running.  They know that defenses defend 13 personnel by bringing in an extra "big" or two (Linebackers) and take off a DB because you could run.  So, now you have your run defense on and the Cowboys use S13 to spread those big guys out and take advantage of them in 1-on-1 pass situations.  I love the concept, because if they stay small and play nickel, then you audible into a run play and you should be able to physically bully them in this game of cat and mouse.  Here is a look at it.


And again, remember that in 6 seasons, the Cowboys haven't done anything like this.  This is a new use of resources that only had 2 snaps on Sunday, but you can believe the Chiefs are asking how they will defend this.  And, the more Escobar and Hanna make plays, the bigger this can become.  If it is still just Witten, then this won't go anywhere.

The 2nd item that was noticeable on Sunday was the use of the pistol.  4 times, they rolled out this look:



Now, the pistol is the rage all around the league and I could not possibly describe it anything like what Chris Brown of Smart Football did last December, so if you want the entire breakdown, visit that.

But, it basically combines the good parts of the shotgun (your QB can still read the defense and see in pre snap while not requiring a major drop back) with the good parts of being under center (your running back is still moving forward/downhill with speed when he receives the ball).  Shotgun in the past required the RB to take the ball at almost a full stop and this made running - especially with power - a major issue.

Notice, that Murray is still 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage which is basically the same as when Romo is under center (perhaps a half yard difference).  They ran the pistol 4 times with Murray getting 3 carries, but you can absolutely believe that the Cowboys can develop this without exposing Romo to hits.  Detroit in Week 1 ran some very interesting pistol looks with Matt Stafford and I can assure you that Peyton Manning, Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers have no plans on running much option read.  But, they can use the alignment to do what they do best.

Data from Week 1 vs New York Giants:

Now we are into the portion of the post that we will visit each week with data to see what we can see.  The Cowboys had decent field position and obviously were the beneficiaries of some takeaways to aid that.  They did not accomplish much on 1st Down as we see that in 25 2nd down opportunities, they were on average 2nd and 9.16.  This is a byproduct of too many offensive line penalties again.

3rd Down was a little rough, too.  We want that number approaching 50% to feel good.

Run-Pass	22-50
Starting Field Position	D 34
1st Down Run-Pass	12-20
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.16
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.66
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	1-14
3rd Down Conversions	5-15, 33%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim is back with us this year and he has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

The first thing that will jump out at anyone is how many times Romo threw the ball in the 1st half.  As you can see, other than the Witten TD down the seam, there was just nothing downfield.  The real theme from Sunday was that the Giants were dedicating "a man and a half" to Dez Bryant and forcing the Cowboys to look elsewhere because Bryant's normal downfield routes were going to be a tight squeeze.  So, you can force the ball into coverage (as Romo did once) or you can take underneath throws.  Look at all of the blue and see that almost none of his completions were more than 5 yards downfield - this also can be a way of helping your pass protection.  Don't hold the ball.


Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

They said they wanted to run a lot of "12".  Well, 30 snaps if you combine 12 and S12, and 177 yards means that with that grouping they were able to find 5.9 yards a snap.  That is a very encouraging start against a defense that we think is decent.

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	3	8	2-3	1-5
12	18	87	9-33	9-54
13	5	23	3-11	2-12
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	1	5	0-0	1-5
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	13	0-0	3-13
S02	1	5	0-0	1-5
S11	27	78	4-15	23-63
S12	12	90	4-23	8-67
S13	2	14	0-0	2-14
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	72	323	22-85	50-238

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.


Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	5	0-0	1-5	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	2	14	0-0	2-14	1/0
S02	1	5	0-0	1-5	1/0
S11	11	33	1-8	10-25	1/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	15	57	1-8	14-49	4/0

And. one more feature.  How did NY Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell decide to rush the Cowboys.  We know the Giants love to generally just bring 4.  But, they got home a few times when they blitzed - partly because their 4 were not really bothering the Cowboys much.  As the game went on, the Giants were forced to bring more to get any pressure.  That is a very good sign, too.

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 49 pass rush/blitz situations: