Something The Oil Futures Markets and The Media Have Forgotten About The Iranian Regime.

You may have noticed that both the oil futures market (price of oil that is reported) and the media act as if the Iran War is going to be settled sometime soon. Oil prices plummeted after Trump TACO on Monday and stated that Iran was negotiating with him. This was after Trump promised Armageddon for Iran if the Iranians didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. And when the media asks Trump’s questions, no one has the temerity to question his many lies or do follow ups to demonstrate that Trump is demented. Both the oil futures market and the media believe, as Tim Miller has said, that “Trump will wriggle out of this jam.” Neither has bothered to look up the most recent history of Iranian humiliation of and vengeance against the U.S. that occurred during the Iranian Hostage Crisis of 1979-1981.

The Supreme Leader of Iran and his fellow mullahs are fanatics who believe in punishing the U.S. and will not be rushed into any type of negotiated deals. I think we — meaning the world — have grown so accustomed to Iranian Islamic revolutionary talk and actions over this many decades that we think Iran is run by rational actors. It’s not. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is another in a long line of Iranian hostage crises.

Let’s go back to the Iranian Hostage Crisis.

Radical Iranian “students” — I use quotations mark for that because of how long these so-called students were out of their classes during the crisis — actually had breached the American Embassy on November 4th, 1979. The radicals took over 50 American Embassy personnel hostage. The trigger for this event was the announcement from the Carter Administration that the ailing Shah of Iran would receive medical treatment for his cancer. The radicals believed that the U.S. was going to install the Shah back into power, and this was the first step in that campaign.

The Ayatollah Khomeini used the seizure of the American Embassy to rally his supporters and consolidate power in Iran. Khomeini and the radicals demanded the return of the Shah for the American hostages. And given our past support for the Shah, who had fled Iran in early 1979, Khomeini’s moves were seen as vengeance on the U.S. for its interference into Iran’s internal affairs.

(By the way, Kissinger and Rockefeller told President Carter that the Shah could not receive the medical treatment that he needed in Panama, where he was living in exile. This was a lie. They also told President Carter that the Iranians would not respond negatively to the Shah coming to America.)

The majority of Iranians loved what the Ayatollah was doing. Iranians felt humiliation from past U.S. actions, and the Ayatollah was showing defiance in defense of “justice.” It’s one of the pillars of Shia Islam, or so I have read.

President Carter froze Iranian assets that amounted to at least $8 billion. And he gave the go ahead for a hostage rescue. In the meantime, the State Department tried to negotiate an end to the crisis.

The hostage rescue went horribly wrong on April 24th of 1980. The Iranians who supported the regime saw this as a sign from Allah. The Iranians made hay of their celebrating among the wreckage of the aircraft used in the failed rescue.

The Shah dies on July 27th, 1980. Shouldn’t this change the dynamic of this crisis? Nope. The Ayatollah refused to release the American hostages.

Think about that for a minute. The main demand from the Iranians is null and void, but the hostages are to remain in Iranian hands.

Then sensing weakness and chaos in Iran, Sadaam Hussein of Iraq invades Iran on September 22, 1980. Hussein doesn’t want to see revolutionary Shia Islam exported to the Shia in Iraq, so he wants to crush the Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime. Maybe now the Iranians will want to end the hostage crisis? They have a new problem on their hands with a WAR on now.

Nope. Never mind that the Iranians could use that money the U.S. froze for the war. The Ayatollah will not budge.

Carter losses badly to Reagan. Surely, the Iranians have their scalp with Carter’s electoral defeat? The Ayatollah could let the hostages go home for Thanksgiving or Christmas. Right?

Wrong. Fuck your Thanksgiving and Christmas!

A final deal is hammered out with the Ayatollah. He gets Iranians assets unfrozen. The U.S. declares it will never interfere again in Iran. So when do the hostages come home”

Jan 20th of 1981. The day that Ronald Reagan is sworn in as president. Carter meets the released hostages that day, and from what I recall, he was horrified by their treatment and the pointless cruelty of holding them for 444 days just to deny returning them to the same president who had given the Shah sanctuary.

And that was the point of the exercise in the end to the Ayatollah and his regime.

Now, the current Ayatollah is not Khomeini, but he is just as bad. Iran is being humiliated again with a rain of death from the sky, and Iranians lives have been lost. But Iran has shown it fights asymmetrically. The Iranians first took hostages in 1979, and they were behind the hostage taking by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

And they have taken another hostage this time: the Strait of Hormuz.

Remember, these are the type of men to hold hostages for 444 days. And they made Hezbollah hold on to American hostages in Lebanon for YEARS. These are not the type of men to be rushed into any deals, especially if the current crisis is hurting their enemies.

The oil futures market and the media have Google. They could look up this history. In fact, I would urge them to do so because they are suffering from collective amnesia now.