Focus 26 January 2021

Climate change impacts

Climate change not only affects environmental systems, but also alters the living conditions for many humans dramatically. On this page, we show articles that allow us to better understand the consequences of human emissions. Given the multitude of impacts, this includes research from all disciplines, in particular ecology, economics, social sciences, climatology and life science, but also multidisciplinary works.

Featured articles

Precipitation disaster hotspots depend on historical climate variability

This study shows that historical precipitation variability shapes current and future record-breaking precipitation probabilities, with regions with low current records being more at risk. High-risk regions are abundant around the world, leading to a quarter billion people facing potential precipitation disasters by 2050.
- Iris de Vries
- Maybritt Schillinger
- Reto Knutti
ArticleOpen Access29 Nov 2025 Nature Communications
Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change

River heatwaves are becoming stronger and longer-lasting globally. Nearly half of the world’s rivers will reach a ‘permanent’ (year-round) heatwave state by the 2090 s under high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and annual population exposure will reach 16.8 billion person-weeks.
- Yiling Chen
- Zhiying Su
- Ming Luo
ArticleOpen Access6 Jan 2026 Nature Communications
Shoreward shift of oceanic mesoscale activity over the last three decades

This study shows that global mesoscale eddy kinetic energy and sea surface temperature gradient magnitudes have shifted shoreward at ~35 km/decade since 1993, suggesting intensified oceanic mesoscale activity near the continents.
- Shuyi Zhou
- Yihang Zhang
- Fanghua Xu
ArticleOpen Access24 Nov 2025 Nature Communications
Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience

Extreme wind speeds critical for wind turbine design have increased across 63% of global coasts. Over half of offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe are in areas with increasing extreme winds, urging adaptive infrastructure under climate change.
- Yanan Zhao
- Yiheng Tao
- Zhenzhong Zeng
ArticleOpen Access4 Nov 2025 Nature Communications
Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The authors of this study perform simulations with a high-resolution climate model and show that global warming may trigger an abrupt shift in the tropical climate system towards stronger and more predictable ENSO cycles, intensifying climate impacts across the globe.
- Malte F. Stuecker
- Sen Zhao
- Thomas Jung
ArticleOpen Access16 Oct 2025 Nature Communications
Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms

This study finds a decrease in severe hail across Europe under a high emissions scenario using km-scale climate model projections. However, very large hail remains a threat, particularly due to the emergence of tropical-like thunderstorms around the Mediterranean coasts.
- Abdullah Kahraman
- Elizabeth J. Kendon
- Chris J. Short
ArticleOpen Access26 Sep 2025 Nature Communications
How climate change and deforestation interact in the transformation of the Amazon rainforest

In this study, the distinct impacts of deforestation and global climate change on the Brazilian Amazon are quantified for the period 1985-2020. Deforestation amplifies the temperature increase and dominates the decrease in rainfall in the dry season.
- Marco A. Franco
- Luciana V. Rizzo
- Luiz A. T. Machado
ArticleOpen Access2 Sep 2025 Nature Communications
Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally

The authors show that extreme fire years in global forests align with rare fire weather extremes. Climate change has made such extremes 88-152% more probable. These findings highlight the need for action towards adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts.
- John T. Abatzoglou
- Crystal A. Kolden
- Matthew W. Jones
ArticleOpen Access10 Jul 2025 Nature Communications
Warming leads to both earlier and later snowmelt floods over the past 70 years

This study shows that global warming has led to both earlier and later snowmelt floods in different regions over the past 70 years, challenging the prevailing idea that warming always advances floods and highlighting the complex nature of snowmelt flood timing shifts.
- Yuhan Guo
- Yuting Yang
- Ziwei Liu
ArticleOpen Access17 Apr 2025 Nature Communications
Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world

Rapid temperature flips between hot and cold extremes will become more frequent, more intense, and more rapid globally by the end of the twenty-first century, which is exacerbated in world’s breadbasket regions and low-income countries.
- Sijia Wu
- Ming Luo
- Tao Pei
ArticleOpen Access22 Apr 2025 Nature Communications
The greater role of Southern Ocean warming compared to Arctic Ocean warming in shifting future tropical rainfall patterns

This study uses climate models and shows that Southern Ocean warming plays a greater role than Arctic Ocean warming in shifting tropical rainfall in a future climate, increasing rainfall in Brazil and enhancing drought risk in the Sahel region.
- Hyein Jeong
- Hyo-Seok Park
- Eui-Seok Chung
ArticleOpen Access1 Apr 2025 Nature Communications
Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change

This study shows that climate change has caused more frequent land-ocean transboundary migrations of warm-season heatwaves, especially in the tropics, driven by stronger landward winds and increased land-ocean temperature gradient.
- Xihui Gu
- Zaiming Jiang
- Liangyi Wang
ArticleOpen Access10 Apr 2025 Nature Communications
Biomass carbon emissions from nickel mining have significant implications for climate action

Decisions on where to source nickel for use in low-carbon technologies must consider the biomass losses caused by mining. This study found that, in many cases, these unaccounted emissions were significant relative to other Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions from nickel extraction and processing.
- Evelyn M. Mervine
- Rick K. Valenta
- Laura J. Sonter
ArticleOpen Access8 Jan 2025 Nature Communications
A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement

Equity is central to international climate policy, but quantifications often only look at carbon dioxide. This study allocates a global warming budget for all greenhouse gases and shows most developed and advanced economies have already exceeded their fair share.
- Mingyu Li
- Setu Pelz
- Joeri Rogelj
ArticleOpen Access26 Jan 2025 Nature Communications
Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations

Climatic changes in extreme events are well studied, but research has so far focused on moderate extremes. The authors show that changes in very extreme heat events can be, depending on the region, much stronger or weaker than changes in moderate extremes.
- Douglas Maraun
- Reinhard Schiemann
- Martin Jury
ArticleOpen Access16 Jan 2025 Nature Communications
Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Although irrigation expansion during the 20th century masked or even reversed local warming trends over some intensely irrigated regions, the exposure to moist-heat extremes of local population has increased due to higher air humidity.
- Yi Yao
- Agnès Ducharne
- Wim Thiery
ArticleOpen Access26 Jan 2025 Nature Communications
A pause in the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since the early 2010s

The anthropogenic weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has begun since the mid-1980s. However, a tug-of-war between the natural and anthropogenic signals led to a near stalling of the weakening since the early 2010s.
- Sang-Ki Lee
- Dongmin Kim
- Stephen Yeager
ArticleOpen Access6 Dec 2024 Nature Communications
A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability

This study identifies a Pacific Climate Change Pattern, hypothesized to be radiatively-forced, that has been emerging in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the mid-1950s and is distinct from the naturally varying Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.
- Feng Jiang
- Richard Seager
- Mark A. Cane
ArticleOpen Access27 Sep 2024 Nature Communications
Pervasive fire danger continued under a negative emission scenario

This study shows that increased fire risk under global warming may not decrease in line with CO₂ reductions. The exacerbated fire danger is projected to contribute to extra CO₂ emissions in 68% of the world due to the hysteresis of climate responses to CO₂ levels.
- Hyo-Jeong Kim
- Jin-Soo Kim
- Jong-Seong Kug
ArticleOpen Access19 Nov 2024 Nature Communications
Exposing disparities in flood adaptation for equitable future interventions in the USA

Flood adaptation policies are effective at reducing overall losses from flooding. By leveraging deep generative models, this work reveals new evidence from the US that the benefits are spread disproportionately across communities.
- Lidia Cano Pecharroman
- ChangHoon Hahn
ArticleOpen Access27 Sep 2024 Nature Communications
Impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclone-related human displacement to support anticipatory action

This paper proposes an open-source, impact-based forecast for tropical cyclone population displacement using both cyclone forecasts and population settlements and vulnerabilities. This is applied to Tropical Cyclone Yasa, striking Fiji in 2020.
- Pui Man Kam
- Fabio Ciccone
- David N. Bresch
ArticleOpen Access10 Oct 2024 Nature Communications
Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation

Where will the first signals of climate mitigation emerge? This study finds stratospheric cooling trends, a hallmark of climate change, would weaken within 5-10 years of rapid CO2 reductions, offering early signs the climate system is changing course.
- Grasiele Romanzini-Bezerra
- Amanda C. Maycock
ArticleOpen Access3 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada

The record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada ( ~ 15 Mha burned) was enabled by early snowmelt, drought, and extreme weather. It had profound impacts that included evacuation of >200 communities, millions exposed to hazardous smoke, and a strain on fire-fighting resources.
- Piyush Jain
- Quinn E. Barber
- Marc-André Parisien
ArticleOpen Access20 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes

Global climate simulations are analyzed to identify extreme summer temperature and humidity conditions that are harmful to crops and ecosystems, and it is shown that climate change leads to a drastic intensification of such events in extratropical regions.
- Mauro Hermann
- Heini Wernli
- Matthias Röthlisberger
ArticleOpen Access15 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
The ocean losing its breath under the heatwaves

The authors show that the global ocean is experiencing a significant rise in simultaneous heatwaves and low-oxygen extreme events that pose threats to marine life worldwide.
- Changyu Li
- Jianping Huang
- Yongkun Xie
ArticleOpen Access9 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
Deforestation amplifies climate change effects on warming and cloud level rise in African montane forests

The authors show that recent deforestation induced more warming and cloud level rise than that caused by climate change, threatening biodiversity and water supply in African montane forests.
- Temesgen Alemayehu Abera
- Janne Heiskanen
- Dirk Zeuss
ArticleOpen Access14 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Temporarily overshooting the 1.5 °C limit risks triggering climate tipping elements. This study finds that every 0.1 °C of warming increases risk, with a strong acceleration above +2.0 °C. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2100 is crucial to minimise long-term risks.
- Tessa Möller
- Annika Ernest Högner
- Nico Wunderling
ArticleOpen Access1 Aug 2024 Nature Communications
Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance

The authors develop a methodology to quantify climate physical risks, both chronic and acute, on productive assets. Investor losses are underestimated up to 70% when neglecting asset level information, and up to 82% when neglecting tail acute risks.
- Giacomo Bressan
- Anja Đuranović
- Stefano Battiston
ArticleOpen Access1 Jul 2024 Nature Communications
Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

The 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave challenged standard attribution methods. The authors use a weather model that predicted the event to quantify human impact on the heat, suggesting that such models could be used broadly to assess changing weather risk.
- Nicholas J. Leach
- Christopher D. Roberts
- Myles R. Allen
ArticleOpen Access30 May 2024 Nature Communications
Multivariate extremes in lakes

Satellite data reveals a rise in multivariate extreme events in lakes since the 1980s, largely linked to agricultural practices and mean climatic warming.
- R. Iestyn Woolway
- Yan Tong
- Kun Shi
ArticleOpen Access29 May 2024 Nature Communications
Global mapping and evolution of persistent fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems over the past 40 years

A global digital atlas of persistent fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems reveals a rapid increase in subtropical and polar regions, and stable conditions or a slight decrease in tropical regions, a pattern not captured by climate projections and ocean models.
- Qinwang Xing
- Haiqing Yu
- Hui Wang
ArticleOpen Access14 May 2024 Nature Communications
Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis

Climate change effects on animals are typically measured as decreases or increases in performance, compared to controls. Because both directions can have cascading effects at the ecosystem level, this study conducts a meta-analysis testing for deviations in biological responses using absolute rather than relative changes, showing that impacts on marine animals might have been largely underestimated.
- Katharina Alter
- Juliette Jacquemont
- Paolo Domenici
ArticleOpen Access3 Apr 2024 Nature Communications
Cross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas

Climate change is shifting species distribution globally. Here, the authors track four decades of changes in the thermal affinity of 1,817 marine species across European seas, showing that most communities have responded to ongoing ocean warming via increases of warm-water species or decreases of cold-water species.
- Guillem Chust
- Ernesto Villarino
- Martin Lindegren
ArticleOpen Access8 Mar 2024 Nature Communications
Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios

Hueholt et al. find that considering how the rate of temperature change contributes to ecosystem risk helps inform future hypothetical design of climate intervention scenarios
- Daniel M. Hueholt
- Elizabeth A. Barnes
- Ariel L. Morrison
ArticleOpen Access18 Apr 2024 Nature Communications
East Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial

Climate simulations of the Last Interglacial show that Antarctic ice loss induces warming of East Antarctica. Meltwater equivalent to the ice loss induces warming of the subsurface. Both effects can further enhance Antarctic ice sheet deterioration
- David K. Hutchinson
- Laurie Menviel
- Andrew McC. Hogg
ArticleOpen Access3 Feb 2024 Nature Communications
Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years

Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- Valdir Felipe Novello
ArticleOpen Access26 Feb 2024 Nature Communications
Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population

The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- Jozef Syktus
- Robin Chadwick
ArticleOpen Access11 Jan 2024 Nature Communications
Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- Xun Li
- Lei Zhou
ArticleOpen Access2 Jan 2024 Nature Communications
Potential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes

The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- Annika Seppälä
- Craig J. Rodger
ArticleOpen Access21 Nov 2023 Nature Communications
Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming

This study shows that lake heating in response to atmospheric warming slows as surface waters warm and evaporate. Lake sensitivity to warming air is higher in clear, cold, undisturbed, or elevated lakes, but declines when land-use practices fertilize basins.
- Jian Zhou
- Peter R. Leavitt
- Boqiang Qin
ArticleOpen Access16 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Recent acceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode and intermediate waters

By analyzing historical and Argo observations, the authors find that the warming of mode and intermediate water layers drives most of the global upper 2000 m ocean warming, highlighting the outsized heat uptake by regional water masses in both hemispheres.
- Zhi Li
- Matthew H. England
- Sjoerd Groeskamp
ArticleOpen Access28 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring heat, missed by climate models.
- Robert Vautard
- Julien Cattiaux
- Pascal Yiou
ArticleOpen Access26 Oct 2023 Nature Communications
Regionally sourced bioaerosols drive high-temperature ice nucleating particles in the Arctic

Primary bioaerosols, important for clouds and climate, were measured at an Arctic mountain site and traced to regional sources. Their seasonality was observed to peak in summer, where they significantly contribute to high-temperature ice nucleating particles.
- Gabriel Pereira Freitas
- Kouji Adachi
- Paul Zieger
ArticleOpen Access28 Sep 2023 Nature Communications
Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

This study examines the effect of four marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predators, revealing a wide-array of predator responses both among and within heatwaves. Predator responses were highly predictable, demonstrating capacity for early warning systems of heatwave impacts, similar to weather forecasts.
- Heather Welch
- Matthew S. Savoca
- Elliott L. Hazen
ArticleOpen Access5 Sep 2023 Nature Communications
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- Simon D. Donner
- James R. Guest
ArticleOpen Access22 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- Christopher Fairless
- Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
ArticleOpen Access24 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Effects of drought and recovery on soil volatile organic compound fluxes in an experimental rainforest

Pugliese et al., show that severe drought and rewetting have a major impact on the capacity of rainforest soil to consume and emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs), affecting the atmospheric VOC budget and thereby atmospheric chemistry and climate.
- Giovanni Pugliese
- Johannes Ingrisch
- Jonathan Williams
ArticleOpen Access21 Aug 2023 Nature Communications
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast

AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020.
- Denis L. Volkov
- Kate Zhang
- Dimitris Menemenlis
ArticleOpen Access22 Aug 2023 Nature Communications

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